March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:58 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Index.gif.f5e589eb46f137bb1732be488bbc51e0

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by Taffy on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

I still have an advisory which surprised me. They are saying 2-4". At this point, I'm happy with even the lower end.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

At least it will be a sexy looking storm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18

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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:01 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 300mb

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 RAD_MOS_NAT_SATOVL_ANI.thumb.gif.f5932517ce6fd07f935807eb58e601d8

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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:05 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Northeast_loop

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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:06 pm

I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:07 pm

UKIE came in west. 10mm = 0.4 qpf = 2-4" of snow (lower ratios)

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 PA_000-072_0000

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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

you beat me to it

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

JMA, wow.

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Jma_apcpn_us_3

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:10 pm

Wait and see, my original map from yesterday will verify and I’ll be kicking myself for changing it. Lol.
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Post by jake732 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?
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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm

aiannone wrote:OHHHH CANADA!!!!! <33333

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur60

Meh. That’s not much different than the current NWS forecast. A little better for the n and w crew which is nice but for me and you no change.

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Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur61
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:17 pm

jake732 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?


A low that might get pulled back west a little more than what models have been calling for which brings the precip shield with it

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:20 pm

NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.
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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18


So would this map be considered weather porn? tongue

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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:27 pm

Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?

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Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Captur62
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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:29 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm

March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations - Page 3 Hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18


So would this map be considered weather porn? tongue

Yes. But only if the low was 150 miles further NW

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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:30 pm

HRRRX is 4-11” area wide from west to east.

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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:34 pm


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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

NWS doing some weird things.  They raised accumulations to 3-5” for n and w of the city.  Meanwhile they lowered mine to 2-4” east of it.  Head Scratcher!  Very strange considering the track

And 3-8” for the Catskills even further n and w


Last edited by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:41 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

CP, HRRR, Canada, JMA all showing us around 4 or 5 inches.Maybe they are seeing a jog west to help us out.I saw that NWS bump up for us and am thrilled! If we can get 5 inches out of a storm which a few days ago was supposed to be nothing, it's a win!!

Maybe a new snow indicator can be made called the Mikey No Likey Indicator, the MNLI.The more negative he gets, the better snow chances for the Hudson Valley! ( just joking Mikey, your the best!).
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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:42 pm

OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED
why what they say?
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