March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:58 pm


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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Taffy on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

I still have an advisory which surprised me. They are saying 2-4". At this point, I'm happy with even the lower end.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:00 pm

At least it will be a sexy looking storm


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2013-2014: 62.1"
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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:01 pm




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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:05 pm


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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:06 pm

I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:07 pm

UKIE came in west. 10mm = 0.4 qpf = 2-4" of snow (lower ratios)


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

you beat me to it

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:09 pm

JMA, wow.


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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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2017-2018: 35"

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:10 pm

Wait and see, my original map from yesterday will verify and I’ll be kicking myself for changing it. Lol.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by jake732 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm

aiannone wrote:OHHHH CANADA!!!!! <33333



Meh. That’s not much different than the current NWS forecast. A little better for the n and w crew which is nice but for me and you no change.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:16 pm


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:17 pm

jake732 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I would argue the trough is more neutral than it is positively tilted. Some models showed it positively tilted at this time. Take it for what its worth...

what does that mean for us?


A low that might get pulled back west a little more than what models have been calling for which brings the precip shield with it

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:20 pm

NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by GreyBeard on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm



So would this map be considered weather porn? tongue

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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:27 pm

Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Anyone have the latest HRRR or HRDPS?


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:29 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:At least it will be a sexy looking storm



So would this map be considered weather porn? tongue

Yes. But only if the low was 150 miles further NW
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:30 pm

HRRRX is 4-11” area wide from west to east.
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by GreyBeard on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:34 pm


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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

NWS doing some weird things.  They raised accumulations to 3-5” for n and w of the city.  Meanwhile they lowered mine to 2-4” east of it.  Head Scratcher!  Very strange considering the track

And 3-8” for the Catskills even further n and w


Last edited by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:NWS upped my WWA to 3-5 inches from 2-4 At a client so haven’t followed the last several hours. Are things trending positive? I saw a negative Mike post but that’s all I’ve seen all winter so I discount those now.

CP, HRRR, Canada, JMA all showing us around 4 or 5 inches.Maybe they are seeing a jog west to help us out.I saw that NWS bump up for us and am thrilled! If we can get 5 inches out of a storm which a few days ago was supposed to be nothing, it's a win!!

Maybe a new snow indicator can be made called the Mikey No Likey Indicator, the MNLI.The more negative he gets, the better snow chances for the Hudson Valley! ( just joking Mikey, your the best!).
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:42 pm

OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:OKAY NWS. NOW IM OFFICIALLY CONFUSED
why what they say?
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Re: March 13th JUST Missed Nor'easter Observations

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