Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

by **amugs** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:23 pm

Rb look at March 1960 - Maps at H5 are similar as is storm trajectory and impacts.

THIS IS FRICKIN INSANE!!!!!!!!

It snows from 96 -120 HRS - moderately to heavily CCB!!

by **jake732** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:24 pm

all the ingredients are here

by **amugs** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:26 pm

GEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

by **amugs** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:28 pm

Models are seeing the synoptic set up as Frank explained. One ting they will NOT see and always underestimate is the CAD (Cold Air Damming) or LLC Low Level Cold Air that the massive Negative SD 5 EPO will bring in. The banana high with the Quebec HP as the anchor and a rising in heights in the PNA region and NAO regions are going to do their magic on tis BEASTTTTTTT!!!

by **billg315** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:30 pm

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/weather/philadelphia-weather-noreaster-1958-equinox-power-outages-20180316.html

by **amugs** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:38 pm

UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.

by **rb924119** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:41 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.

This is the GEFS mugs lmao still stupidly impressive for an ensemble mean!!!

by **syosnow94** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:03 pm

amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!

One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east

by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:07 pm

Hopefully this isn't too annoying of an IMBY question for the crew:

Right now, the r/s line on the GFS ENS is about 50-75 mi NW of Coastal Ocean County. Are the big picture mechanisms which would move it SE by this much still viable players, and if so, are they trending for the better or for the worse?

It seems like 'heights' are referenced often when discussing the snow potential for coastal sections. I'm not really sure what they are or how they work. I'm pretty sure that I am missing a lot of prerequisite knowledge for understanding all that! ha ha

by **amugs** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!

One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east

It may not matter once it goes N at this juncture or it may not have much of any effect with such a deep trough - the damage may already been done.

by **Frank_Wx** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:40 pm

EURO qpf

by **docstox12** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

LOL, the proverbial "fly in the ointment'!

by **mikeypizano** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:51 pm

How much qpf does Sponge Bob have?

by **rb924119** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:52 pm

Pretty hard northwest lean on both GEFS and GEPS. EURO ENTIRELY ALONE.

by **RJB8525** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:52 pm

so that qpf is 13 right?

by **SNOW MAN** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:53 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

LOL, the proverbial "fly in the ointment'![/quote

UGH !

by mwilli5783 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:00 pm

my guy always says"MADONNNNE" but i got a better one(if these models shows snow 36-40 hrs tues,wed,thurs)...."ARMAGEDDOOONNNN"

by **billg315** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

[X] Dislike

by **RJB8525** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:10 pm

this is going to be a long weekend.

by bobjohnsonforthehall on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

by **Frank_Wx** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:27 pm

EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.

The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...

by **docstox12** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:42 pm

RJB8525 wrote:this is going to be a long weekend.

Wow, based on this Euro model, you've got THAT right.Total miss southern slider.

by **syosnow94** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.

The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...

Mi commented on an earlier post by Al that the GFS looked to collapse the western ridge east in the last frame which could spell AN OTS SOLUTION. Hope not though

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:13 pm

Syos if that somehow happens I’m not sure if you should be congratulated for catching that or executed for jinxing the whole damn storm.

by **nutleyblizzard** on Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:08 pm

Lee Goldberg says that suppression is unlikely. Maybe a 1 in 5 chance of occurring.

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