Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Rb look at March 1960 - Maps at H5 are similar as is storm trajectory and impacts.
THIS IS FRICKIN INSANE!!!!!!!!



It snows from 96 -120 HRS - moderately to heavily CCB!!
THIS IS FRICKIN INSANE!!!!!!!!



It snows from 96 -120 HRS - moderately to heavily CCB!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
all the ingredients are here
jake732- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
GEFS!!!!!!!!!!!








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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Models are seeing the synoptic set up as Frank explained. One ting they will NOT see and always underestimate is the CAD (Cold Air Damming) or LLC Low Level Cold Air that the massive Negative SD 5 EPO will bring in. The banana high with the Quebec HP as the anchor and a rising in heights in the PNA region and NAO regions are going to do their magic on tis BEASTTTTTTT!!!
Last edited by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.


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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
amugs wrote:UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.
This is the GEFS mugs lmao still stupidly impressive for an ensemble mean!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!
One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Hopefully this isn't too annoying of an IMBY question for the crew:
Right now, the r/s line on the GFS ENS is about 50-75 mi NW of Coastal Ocean County. Are the big picture mechanisms which would move it SE by this much still viable players, and if so, are they trending for the better or for the worse?
It seems like 'heights' are referenced often when discussing the snow potential for coastal sections. I'm not really sure what they are or how they work. I'm pretty sure that I am missing a lot of prerequisite knowledge for understanding all that! ha ha
Right now, the r/s line on the GFS ENS is about 50-75 mi NW of Coastal Ocean County. Are the big picture mechanisms which would move it SE by this much still viable players, and if so, are they trending for the better or for the worse?
It seems like 'heights' are referenced often when discussing the snow potential for coastal sections. I'm not really sure what they are or how they work. I'm pretty sure that I am missing a lot of prerequisite knowledge for understanding all that! ha ha
SENJsnowman- Posts : 454
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
syosnow94 wrote:amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!
One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east
It may not matter once it goes N at this juncture or it may not have much of any effect with such a deep trough - the damage may already been done.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
EURO qpf


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Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx- Godzilla Seeker
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf
LOL, the proverbial "fly in the ointment'!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
How much qpf does Sponge Bob have?
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Pretty hard northwest lean on both GEFS and GEPS. EURO ENTIRELY ALONE.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
docstox12 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf
LOL, the proverbial "fly in the ointment'![/quote
UGH !![]()
SNOW MAN- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
my guy always says"MADONNNNE" but i got a better one(if these models shows snow 36-40 hrs tues,wed,thurs)...."ARMAGEDDOOONNNN"
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf
[X] Dislike
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
this is going to be a long weekend.
RJB8525- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.
The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...
The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...
_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx- Godzilla Seeker
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
RJB8525 wrote:this is going to be a long weekend.
Wow, based on this Euro model, you've got THAT right.Total miss southern slider.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Mi commented on an earlier post by Al that the GFS looked to collapse the western ridge east in the last frame which could spell AN OTS SOLUTION. Hope not thoughFrank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.
The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Syos if that somehow happens I’m not sure if you should be congratulated for catching that or executed for jinxing the whole damn storm.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm
Lee Goldberg says that suppression is unlikely. Maybe a 1 in 5 chance of occurring.
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» March 20th-22nd Storm: Snow Maps & Final Snow TOTALS
» First day of Spring?
» Different seasons. Eg: winter and summer
» "As December goes, so goes the winter"
» Spikes
» First day of Spring?
» Different seasons. Eg: winter and summer
» "As December goes, so goes the winter"
» Spikes
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