Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Rb look at March 1960 - Maps at H5 are similar as is storm trajectory and impacts.

THIS IS FRICKIN INSANE!!!!!!!!








It snows from 96 -120 HRS - moderately to heavily CCB!!

GEFS!!!!!!!!!!!

Models are seeing the synoptic set up as Frank explained. One ting they will NOT see and always underestimate is the CAD (Cold Air Damming) or LLC Low Level Cold Air that the massive Negative SD 5 EPO will bring in. The banana high with the Quebec HP as the anchor and a rising in heights in the PNA region and NAO regions are going to do their magic on tis BEASTTTTTTT!!!

UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.

amugs wrote:UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.

This is the GEFS mugs lmao still stupidly impressive for an ensemble mean!!!

amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!

One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east

Hopefully this isn't too annoying of an IMBY question for the crew:

Right now, the r/s line on the GFS ENS is about 50-75 mi NW of Coastal Ocean County. Are the big picture mechanisms which would move it SE by this much still viable players, and if so, are they trending for the better or for the worse?

It seems like 'heights' are referenced often when discussing the snow potential for coastal sections. I'm not really sure what they are or how they work. I'm pretty sure that I am missing a lot of prerequisite knowledge for understanding all that! ha ha

syosnow94 wrote:

amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!

One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east

It may not matter once it goes N at this juncture or it may not have much of any effect with such a deep trough - the damage may already been done.

EURO qpf

Pretty hard northwest lean on both GEFS and GEPS. EURO ENTIRELY ALONE.

EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.

The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.

The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...

Mi commented on an earlier post by Al that the GFS looked to collapse the western ridge east in the last frame which could spell AN OTS SOLUTION. Hope not though