Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:23 pm

Rb look at March 1960 - Maps at H5 are similar as is storm trajectory and impacts.

THIS IS FRICKIN INSANE!!!!!!!!

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It snows from 96 -120 HRS - moderately to heavily CCB!!


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Post by jake732 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:24 pm

all the ingredients are here
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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:26 pm

GEFS!!!!!!!!!!!
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:28 pm

Models are seeing the synoptic set up as Frank explained. One ting they will NOT see and always underestimate is the CAD (Cold Air Damming) or LLC Low Level Cold Air that the massive Negative SD 5 EPO will bring in. The banana high with the Quebec HP as the anchor and a rising in heights in the PNA region and NAO regions are going to do their magic on tis BEASTTTTTTT!!!


Last edited by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:30 pm

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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:38 pm

UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 Gefs_qpf_mean_ma_25.png.cbc381725954640ceb62b6ad200b1b81

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:41 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE!!!!!! 36-40 hour snowstorm and QPF.

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 Gefs_qpf_mean_ma_25.png.cbc381725954640ceb62b6ad200b1b81

This is the GEFS mugs lmao still stupidly impressive for an ensemble mean!!!

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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:03 pm

amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh114_trend.gif.92e2578b0f0559cf9782ddda67d009a4


One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east

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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:07 pm

Hopefully this isn't too annoying of an IMBY question for the crew:

Right now, the r/s line on the GFS ENS is about 50-75 mi NW of Coastal Ocean County. Are the big picture mechanisms which would move it SE by this much still viable players, and if so, are they trending for the better or for the worse?

It seems like 'heights' are referenced often when discussing the snow potential for coastal sections. I'm not really sure what they are or how they work. I'm pretty sure that I am missing a lot of prerequisite knowledge for understanding all that! ha ha

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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
amugs wrote:JESUS H LOOK AT THIS GEFS!!!!!!!!

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh114_trend.gif.92e2578b0f0559cf9782ddda67d009a4


One thing to note Al is on the last frame of that loop it looks like energy comes crashing into the west coast and tries to mute the western ridge or at least bump it east, which COULD send our storm further south and east

It may not matter once it goes N at this juncture or it may not have much of any effect with such a deep trough - the damage may already been done.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:40 pm

EURO qpf

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 2018-03-16_14-33-49.jpg.f22513b2d29b4c7672747e5e3abc5f22

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 2018-03-16_14-33-49.jpg.f22513b2d29b4c7672747e5e3abc5f22

LOL, the proverbial "fly in the ointment'!
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Post by mikeypizano on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:51 pm

How much qpf does Sponge Bob have?
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:52 pm

Pretty hard northwest lean on both GEFS and GEPS. EURO ENTIRELY ALONE.

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Post by RJB8525 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:52 pm

so that qpf is 13 right?
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Post by SNOW MAN on Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:53 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 2018-03-16_14-33-49.jpg.f22513b2d29b4c7672747e5e3abc5f22

LOL, the proverbial "fly in the ointment'![/quote

UGH ! affraid
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Post by mwilli5783 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:00 pm

my guy always says"MADONNNNE" but i got a better one(if these models shows snow 36-40 hrs tues,wed,thurs)...."ARMAGEDDOOONNNN"

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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 2018-03-16_14-33-49.jpg.f22513b2d29b4c7672747e5e3abc5f22

[X] Dislike
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Post by RJB8525 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:10 pm

this is going to be a long weekend.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 2018-03-16_14-33-49.jpg.f22513b2d29b4c7672747e5e3abc5f22

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 2 Maxwell_smart
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:27 pm

EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.

The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:42 pm

RJB8525 wrote:this is going to be a long weekend.

Wow, based on this Euro model, you've got THAT right.Total miss southern slider.
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Post by Guest on Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.

The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...
Mi commented on an earlier post by Al that the GFS looked to collapse the western ridge east in the last frame which could spell AN OTS SOLUTION. Hope not though

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:13 pm

Syos if that somehow happens I’m not sure if you should be congratulated for catching that or executed for jinxing the whole damn storm.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:08 pm

Lee Goldberg says that suppression is unlikely. Maybe a 1 in 5 chance of occurring.
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