Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:29 am

I agree with Frank that conceptually viewing this as one storm (albeit complex) is probably easier, especially since some models show very little break in the action between Thing 1 and Thing 2. That said, clearly the bigger impacts will be felt during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night so I think that will catch more people's attention than Tuesday (except for those south where Tuesday may provide more accumulation).
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Post by Taffy on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:30 am

Thanks for the answer, Frank. It was really clear and concise. It's important to me. Since being an observer on Bill's old board and then moving over here, I feel I'm ready to start really learning how to read some of these models and trying to understand more.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:37 am

I've never seen this map depiction before but considering the type of storm that there may be mixing issues and that there may be accumulation problems at time during the daytime Wednesday this may give a better idea of what will look actually accumulate than the other maps being shown.

Since I've never seen it before there's of course a decent probability that it won't.

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 Map_th10
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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:39 am

I really am apprehensive about part 1 or wave 1 whatever you wanna call it. If it gets too amped it may shunt the baroclinic zone too far south OR rob the energy from part two killing the dynamics. I don’t like seeing so much potential for tomorrow

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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:41 am

Here's the first frame from the 12z GFS:Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 Storm_10
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:41 am

syosnow94 wrote:I really am apprehensive about part 1 or wave 1 whatever you wanna call it.  If it gets too amped it may shunt the baroclinic zone too far south OR rob the energy from part two killing the dynamics.  I don’t like seeing so much potential for tomorrow

Both of our opinions combined probably don't equal 10% of a Frank, Scott or RB but I agree with everything you said.
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Post by Guest on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:44 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I really am apprehensive about part 1 or wave 1 whatever you wanna call it.  If it gets too amped it may shunt the baroclinic zone too far south OR rob the energy from part two killing the dynamics.  I don’t like seeing so much potential for tomorrow

Both of our opinions combined probably don't equal 10% of a Frank, Scott or RB but I agree with everything you said.

10% huh. So if my opinion is worth about 50% than you are a -40%


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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:44 am

12z GFS coming in now. Precip gets as far north as NYC but very light. Steady precip into CNJ. Waiting on the rest of the run

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 5aafda82e4822_download(6).gif.2d83751acc9aeea3b12b1c3e5494fcc3

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:45 am

GFS looks amped! Less confluence too.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:46 am

11am Wednesday GFS

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 545724E0-E66A-4114-A0B8-DB9B6E153109.png.b4a3cef7d840cadfcb5d79210f452f69

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:46 am

2pm Wednesday - MADONNE

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 5aafdb3308583

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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:47 am

12z GFS shows generally light mix of rain, sleet and snow during the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening - mostly south of I-80, from Thing 1. Let's see where it goes with Thing 2 Wednesday.
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Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:47 am

HOLY SH$%
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:48 am

5pm Wednesday - STALLED

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 FEAEADD1-DDC7-490F-A97C-1D9CDFC25A4D.png.2e8f74a2452f337dc10e6ab155da1798

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Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:48 am

Frank_Wx wrote:5pm Wednesday - STALLED

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 FEAEADD1-DDC7-490F-A97C-1D9CDFC25A4D.png.2e8f74a2452f337dc10e6ab155da1798

Stalling feature seems to have agreement from NAM, GFS, and Euro. We have a consensus it seems
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:49 am

9pm Wednesday

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:51 am

The location of the mid level lows are off the coast and STACKED. That is huge. Also, GFS never gets precip rate right with coastal storms. I would not pay too much attention to that. But here is the snow map...Philly CRUSHED

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Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:51 am

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 Captur14
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:52 am

Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm - Page 15 5aafdc720eb1a

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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:52 am

well then. GFS says all hands on deck. Wednesday should be interesting times around here.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:53 am

Precip starts 5pm Tuesday and shuts off 6am Thursday...

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:53 am

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Post by jimv45 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:03 pm

The GFS if right get good precip east of the Hudson for the Hudson valley. will see

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:04 pm

Great 12Z model runs thus far. I would not get too hung up on snow maps just yet. Pay more attention to storm track and how the upper levels look. Its gorgeous. I would like to see the 2nd low make it further north in future runs to a more benchmark track. Otherwise this event screams Godzilla folks!
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Post by amugs on Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:07 pm

Isotherm has spoken and we should ALLLLLLLLL listen:

When you see the GFS this cold in the low-levels, one can rest assured that sticking will not be an issue.

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