Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:10 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Syos if that somehow happens I’m not sure if you should be congratulated for catching that or executed for jinxing the whole damn storm.

Both?
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:34 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO qpf

affraid affraid affraid just caught up...oh my gosh..show funny lol! lol! lol! I just love model mayhem.. but I have a question..can't we just have one storm that performs the same on all models ....just once please??!!
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:23 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles are also south like the OP.

The main reason why the EURO/EPS are south is because they do not have a +PNA. The other models spike a ridge out west which allows the energy to consolidate at the base of the trough. EURO is too progressive. Not a good sign. We'll see who wins this model war...
Mi commented on an earlier post by Al that the GFS looked to collapse the western ridge east in the last frame whi2ch could spell AN OTS SOLUTION. Hope not though
The Euro H5 evolution was deamplifying the PNA with energy crashing into the UNW coast, not Calinlike the GFS but did not have the effect as the euro. Then allowing the first wave to slide south thus taking the barclonic zone with it out to sea. One thing that is wrong with the euro is holding back the energy which is its known bias. Tonslowmofbthe evolution allows for the deamplifying of the PNA ridge and cofluence to push in 
Am I saying his won't or can't happen no. One other aspect is how the confluence over SE Canada is much stronger which helps suppress the storm even more. That is a big player here to. So it's not just the deamplifying the PNA cause once the second wave can form and go N it should be abe to climb N. 
One thing for sure, we have a very favorable synoptic set up. The OP runs will be all over the place so if you believe in each run you'll be spent by Sunday. Lots of time and swings. Like the ENS and H5 maps to tell us where we are at and going. Lots of dynamics.

See you tomorrow if not Sunday here.

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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by dkodgis on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:25 pm

Lee Goldberg just said it may stay south and there is a break between two parts. He thinks just rain. ¡Ay caramba!
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by GreyBeard on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:26 pm

Just watched Lee Goldberg, he doesn't think we will be getting the Foureaster. Forecast just showers for Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by GreyBeard on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:27 pm

Beat me to it dkodgis Smile. Channel 7 has Sam Champion coming up, will have to see what he has to say.

Well, he didn't have a definitive forecast.Either the Foureaster or ots

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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:45 pm

Wow euro gfs...hate to say it but we been saying the gfs is garbage. Hoping it's right but am hesitant. And also worried bout lack cold for coastal areas. I know it's late march but is there anyway this can go well for us if it comes?
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:57 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Just watched Lee Goldberg, he doesn't think we will be getting the Foureaster. Forecast just showers for Tuesday and Wednesday.
He must of seen the latest GFS run. Typical model humping. Windshield wiper in full effect. Don't be surprised to see a different solution tonight.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:59 pm

LEE also did say that he just saw the latest models with in the hour and that it was close and that they needed to watch...that gives him the out...i guess he is trying not to freak people out that were hammered in the last several storms...
Have a great night fella's and gals....
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:08 pm

So I'm guessing 18z gfs was like 12z euro?
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:20 pm

Yeah, what Mugsy said.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So I'm guessing 18z gfs was like 12z euro?
Not really; first storm brings several inches of snow, but second wave develops a little later and stays S&E keeping snow totals lower.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:49 pm

TV Mets are trying too hard after they failed to see the last Nor'easter. They didn't forecast that until 2 days before.

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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:50 pm

GEFS show a Godzilla...NYC included. Starts snowing Tuesday and ends very late Wednesday



So 18z GFS OP was a blip

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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by dkodgis on Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:55 pm

I LOVE the GFS.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:39 pm

Oh my God we are hitching our wagons and our hopes to the GFS. Yikes!!!! Not good
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS show a Godzilla...NYC included. Starts snowing Tuesday and ends very late Wednesday



So 18z GFS OP was a blip
that would be quite a light snow. You don't think the light rate would have a hard times sticking in NYC area?
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:01 pm

Sorry to sound like a neg Nancy I am seething inside lol but I refuse to get let down again betting on the gfs will be as good as my chances at winning at the casino tonight in CT which is where my friend and I are. So better hope I win.

I'll feel much better if euro at least starts showing northward jumps. Don't want it all at once.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by Radz on Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:38 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Sorry to sound like a neg Nancy I am seething inside lol but I refuse to get let down again betting on the gfs will be as good as my chances at winning at the casino tonight in CT which is where my friend and I are. So better hope I win.

I'll feel much better if euro at least starts showing northward jumps. Don't want it all at once.
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:45 pm

18z EURO shows big jump north. 12”+ area wide. Bullseye jackpot 20”+ just north of NYC. Winds of 50 mph+ centered over northern Bronx southern Westchester
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by mikeypizano on Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:18z EURO shows big jump north. 12”+ area wide. Bullseye jackpot 20”+ just north of NYC. Winds of 50 mph+ centered over northern Bronx southern Westchester

There is an 18z Euro?
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:46 pm

syosnow94 wrote:18z EURO shows big jump north. 12”+ area wide. Bullseye jackpot 20”+ just north of NYC. Winds of 50 mph+ centered over northern Bronx southern Westchester

[X] Laughing Laughing

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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by adamfitz1969 on Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:32 pm


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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 17, 2018 12:21 am

NAM looked amazing. But GFS did not. Look at thus trend over the PNA region. Ridge going flatter and flatter each consecutive run.


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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:01 am

GFS coming around to join EURO. Suppression
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Re: Winter's Finale: March 20th-21st Snowstorm

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