March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Page 8 of 40 Previous  1 ... 5 ... 7, 8, 9 ... 24 ... 40  Next

Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:36 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:My final call

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Final_Call

Wow ok then.  santa

In Frank we trust, at least when it comes to forecasting.

Don't want to Get God angry at me right now so I had to clarify that, we're in enough trouble with this storm in the HV.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6202
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well anything goes at this point so F the Euro.

Look at the 6Z NAM this morning it was horrible and at 12Z it corrected. Lets see what the Euro does on it's next run.

Still plenty of models with great hits for NYC south and east.

Northern people are in trouble but we've known that for days, no surprises despsite the ridiculous WSW for 10-16 inches. I never thought that was happening up here anyway.

If you compare the 00z EURO to today's 12z EURO it did correct and it's probably not finished correcting. So, I would weigh the EURO very lightly. I bet the EURO Ensembles look different than the OP.
That was a strange run. It advanced the heavier snows northward but at the same time decreases the northern sections. What should have happened is the precip shield as a whole moves northward. Doesn't make sense to me.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1590
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 53
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:38 pm

Flurries in Flemington.
bobjohnsonforthehall
bobjohnsonforthehall

Posts : 219
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2016-10-02
Location : Flemington NJ

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:40 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well anything goes at this point so F the Euro.

Look at the 6Z NAM this morning it was horrible and at 12Z it corrected. Lets see what the Euro does on it's next run.

Still plenty of models with great hits for NYC south and east.

Northern people are in trouble but we've known that for days, no surprises despsite the ridiculous WSW for 10-16 inches. I never thought that was happening up here anyway.

If you compare the 00z EURO to today's 12z EURO it did correct and it's probably not finished correcting. So, I would weigh the EURO very lightly. I bet the EURO Ensembles look different than the OP.
That was a strange run. It advanced the heavier snows northward but at the same time decreases the northern sections. What should have happened is the precip shield as a whole moves northward. Doesn't make sense to me.

Not always. Winds from the north with confluence pressing south could try to squash the precip shield. Dry air may also be trying to eat away at it. This is a very key trend we have to keep an eye on. If so, the cut-off's on my map would have to be more extreme once you begin heading, say, 20-30 miles N&W of NYC.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18708
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:40 pm

Razz


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2454
Reputation : 59
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:41 pm

I've just been really busy. I've been following along, though, and offering insight as I've been able. If I had the time, believe me when I tell you I would be much more involved, and that goes for every system we have had. Way back in November I decided to make the sacrifice and forego my normal degree of forecasting in order to finish up my project so I can come back strong with it next season. Add in work, and there's very little time left aha

As for my thoughts with this system, I can't really offer a comment aside from just looking at the QPF and upper level maps very briefly, which wouldn't be a fair assessment for either of us lmao however, in order to get the north and west crew involved, at a quick glance I would like to see the H5 and H7 lows 50-100 miles further north and west, in coordination with a jet stream anchored over northern New York State to draw the dynamics of the levels below and the precipitation that they force much further northwestward. As it is, the visualizations of an I-95 and points east blitz appear correct to me. Unfortunately. However, we are still seeing incredible run to run discontinuity with many models, which means that no one solution is locked in yet, at least my opinion. The volatility is just astounding. With the amount of convection I still suspect a northwestward adjustment is possible come game time, though to what degree I cannot say. Keep in mind, I also got burned by that last time, as I expected much more through eastern PA and the HV, and given the state of the local SST anomaly configuration, my ideas are argued against, similarly to the last event. As for the gradient being depicted, I see no reason for that to be incorrect. People are trying to dismiss it, but in these large systems with vigorous ascent you see that all the time. It's the nature of the beast. Air has to sink somewhere to same degree it rise, and it is right next to western/northwestern fringe band. You frequently can go from 12" to 2" in the span of ten miles with these systems, so I have no reason to not believe that aspect. As for QPF, the numbers being portrayed seem reasonable (at least the 1.25-1.75" range) given the P-wat anomalies and ambient thermal profiles, which also leads me to believe that the ratios are not going to be as low as many suspect. I do think an average of 10-11:1 is a fair bet for the I-95, which would help mitigate any damage. However, this will likely lend itself to accumulation issues where we have seen them of late, as it's much easier to melt a drier snow with less water content (much less thermal energy required to heat a smaller mass of water) than a wet and pasty snow, so I do think your urban corridor will have trouble at first, even though it has been colder than times prior in preceding events. However, outside the urban corridor and once the base layer and rate of melting is overcome, maximized dendritic growth and synoptic/meso-scale forcing mechanisms will lend themselves to robust accumulations pretty rapidly. Even in the urban corridor, I do think amounts will have a decent chance at breaking 6", though I'm admittedly not fully entertaining that idea yet. This about as much as I can offer, and I'm sorry it couldn't be more :/


Last edited by rb924119 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4927
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:41 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well anything goes at this point so F the Euro.

Look at the 6Z NAM this morning it was horrible and at 12Z it corrected. Lets see what the Euro does on it's next run.

Still plenty of models with great hits for NYC south and east.

Northern people are in trouble but we've known that for days, no surprises despsite the ridiculous WSW for 10-16 inches. I never thought that was happening up here anyway.

If you compare the 00z EURO to today's 12z EURO it did correct and it's probably not finished correcting. So, I would weigh the EURO very lightly. I bet the EURO Ensembles look different than the OP.
That was a strange run. It advanced the heavier snows northward but at the same time decreases the northern sections. What should have happened is the precip shield as a whole moves northward. Doesn't make sense to me.

It might see the difficulty northern areas will have moistening up that dense cold dry air mass we have sitting over us. It happens.

I just noticed Frank said basically the same thing several conversations up.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6202
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:41 pm

The H5 of the EURO was better than the surface depiction - sorry if I misled you folks BUT as our great leader said the NW cut off is to extreme and it did job about 50 miles North.

To Frank's map!!
cheers cheers cheers

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10354
Reputation : 163
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:42 pm

Sleeting
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2454
Reputation : 59
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by dkodgis on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:42 pm

Bill Evans has called this storm a "dumpster fire beast"
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 971
Reputation : 65
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by bluebythec on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:44 pm

Sleet/snow/rain mix in Manasquan
bluebythec
bluebythec

Posts : 6
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2015-02-15
Location : Home Point Pleasant/ Work Manasquan NJ

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:45 pm

As a follow-up, the lack of a jet extension across northern NY State really does not make me think nice thoughts north and west of about I-80.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4927
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:46 pm

Bernie Rayno, breaking my damn heart.

"Upper Low on EURO looks farther S and E to me.looks more & more like a Philly (S/SE Pa), S New Jersey & northern DE storm.Baltimore on western edge of heaviest.Under 6 inches in NYC (in the city) seems very likely to me. S New England looks on edge as well.updated periscope later"
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2625
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Smittyaj623 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:48 pm

Straight sleet here in Bayville

Smittyaj623

Posts : 73
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2018-03-06
Age : 19
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jimv45 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:48 pm

Bernie is good! hope he is wrong.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1021
Reputation : 30
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : dutchess county ny

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Smittyaj623 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:49 pm

Straight sleet here in Bayville

Smittyaj623

Posts : 73
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2018-03-06
Age : 19
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:52 pm

amugs wrote:The H5 of the EURO was better than the surface depiction - sorry if I misled you folks BUT as our great leader said the NW cut off is to extreme and it did job about 50 miles North.

To Frank's map!!
cheers cheers cheers

No sweat Mugs.

Paramedics say I have a 50-50 shot to make it.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6202
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:52 pm

It has ben quite clear that the euro has trended S&E with the500mb Low.  The deform band will be on the NW side of it, but can only go so far N&W.  Here are thelast 4 runs of the euro..slow and steady it has shifted S&E so it makes sense the axis of heaviest  snow does as well.  The euro is one global I would listen too with this sort of development.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf122
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf123
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf124
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf125
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf126


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6294
Reputation : 251
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:55 pm

sroc4 wrote:It has ben quite clear that the euro has trended S&E with the500mb Low.  The deform band will be on the NW side of it, but can only go so far N&W.  Here are thelast 4 runs of the euro..slow and steady it has shifted S&E so it makes sense the axis of heaviest  snow does as well.  The euro is one global I would listen too with this sort of development.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf122
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf123
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf124
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf125
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Ecmwf126

Crap. Do you think it's done trending S & E?
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2625
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Smittyaj623 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:59 pm

Straight sleet here in Bayville

Smittyaj623

Posts : 73
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2018-03-06
Age : 19
Location : Bayville, NJ

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:00 pm

The GFS H5 is just as south (maybe even more east) than the EURO but it still has good snow extending north.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Gfs_z500_vort_eus_7



_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18708
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Guest on Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:03 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno, breaking my damn heart.

"Upper Low on EURO looks farther S and E to me.looks more & more like a Philly (S/SE Pa), S New Jersey & northern DE storm.Baltimore on western edge of heaviest.Under 6 inches in NYC (in the city) seems very likely to me. S New England looks on edge as well.updated periscope later"

Shit. I love Bernie. I think he’s usually really good

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:04 pm

I'm not even sure if its to be believed, but Frank made mention f the confluence to the north this am. Could it end up stronger than modeled and 500mb low ends up further S&E??? Sure. Ive looked at H5 on NAM and RGEM and they are about the same plus or minus only a small amt. The difference seems to be in how far north the vorticity gets. The main deform band looks like its over NYC and points east, but there looks like smaller bands will form to the N&W as well. But like the last 3 we wil have screw zone inbetween bands due to subsidence.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6294
Reputation : 251
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:04 pm

This was the EURO snow map the ONE DAY before the January 2016 blizzard. Busted...big time.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Image.thumb.png.03631220e48286c2332dd38a69f8c57b

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18708
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 8 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:05 pm

EURO is not what it used to be. Very curious to see what EPS show.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18708
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Page 8 of 40 Previous  1 ... 5 ... 7, 8, 9 ... 24 ... 40  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum