March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well anything goes at this point so F the Euro.

Look at the 6Z NAM this morning it was horrible and at 12Z it corrected. Lets see what the Euro does on it's next run.

Still plenty of models with great hits for NYC south and east.

Northern people are in trouble but we've known that for days, no surprises despsite the ridiculous WSW for 10-16 inches. I never thought that was happening up here anyway.

If you compare the 00z EURO to today's 12z EURO it did correct and it's probably not finished correcting. So, I would weigh the EURO very lightly. I bet the EURO Ensembles look different than the OP.

Heavy sleet in Ocean Grove

syosnow94 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:My final call

Wow ok then.  

In Frank we trust, at least when it comes to forecasting.

Don't want to Get God angry at me right now so I had to clarify that, we're in enough trouble with this storm in the HV.

Frank_Wx wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well anything goes at this point so F the Euro.

Look at the 6Z NAM this morning it was horrible and at 12Z it corrected. Lets see what the Euro does on it's next run.

Still plenty of models with great hits for NYC south and east.

Northern people are in trouble but we've known that for days, no surprises despsite the ridiculous WSW for 10-16 inches. I never thought that was happening up here anyway.

If you compare the 00z EURO to today's 12z EURO it did correct and it's probably not finished correcting. So, I would weigh the EURO very lightly. I bet the EURO Ensembles look different than the OP.

That was a strange run. It advanced the heavier snows northward but at the same time decreases the northern sections. What should have happened is the precip shield as a whole moves northward. Doesn't make sense to me.

Flurries in Flemington.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well anything goes at this point so F the Euro.

Look at the 6Z NAM this morning it was horrible and at 12Z it corrected. Lets see what the Euro does on it's next run.

Still plenty of models with great hits for NYC south and east.

Northern people are in trouble but we've known that for days, no surprises despsite the ridiculous WSW for 10-16 inches. I never thought that was happening up here anyway.

If you compare the 00z EURO to today's 12z EURO it did correct and it's probably not finished correcting. So, I would weigh the EURO very lightly. I bet the EURO Ensembles look different than the OP.

That was a strange run. It advanced the heavier snows northward but at the same time decreases the northern sections. What should have happened is the precip shield as a whole moves northward. Doesn't make sense to me.

Not always. Winds from the north with confluence pressing south could try to squash the precip shield. Dry air may also be trying to eat away at it. This is a very key trend we have to keep an eye on. If so, the cut-off's on my map would have to be more extreme once you begin heading, say, 20-30 miles N&W of NYC.

I've just been really busy. I've been following along, though, and offering insight as I've been able. If I had the time, believe me when I tell you I would be much more involved, and that goes for every system we have had. Way back in November I decided to make the sacrifice and forego my normal degree of forecasting in order to finish up my project so I can come back strong with it next season. Add in work, and there's very little time left aha

As for my thoughts with this system, I can't really offer a comment aside from just looking at the QPF and upper level maps very briefly, which wouldn't be a fair assessment for either of us lmao however, in order to get the north and west crew involved, at a quick glance I would like to see the H5 and H7 lows 50-100 miles further north and west, in coordination with a jet stream anchored over northern New York State to draw the dynamics of the levels below and the precipitation that they force much further northwestward. As it is, the visualizations of an I-95 and points east blitz appear correct to me. Unfortunately. However, we are still seeing incredible run to run discontinuity with many models, which means that no one solution is locked in yet, at least my opinion. The volatility is just astounding. With the amount of convection I still suspect a northwestward adjustment is possible come game time, though to what degree I cannot say. Keep in mind, I also got burned by that last time, as I expected much more through eastern PA and the HV, and given the state of the local SST anomaly configuration, my ideas are argued against, similarly to the last event. As for the gradient being depicted, I see no reason for that to be incorrect. People are trying to dismiss it, but in these large systems with vigorous ascent you see that all the time. It's the nature of the beast. Air has to sink somewhere to same degree it rise, and it is right next to western/northwestern fringe band. You frequently can go from 12" to 2" in the span of ten miles with these systems, so I have no reason to not believe that aspect. As for QPF, the numbers being portrayed seem reasonable (at least the 1.25-1.75" range) given the P-wat anomalies and ambient thermal profiles, which also leads me to believe that the ratios are not going to be as low as many suspect. I do think an average of 10-11:1 is a fair bet for the I-95, which would help mitigate any damage. However, this will likely lend itself to accumulation issues where we have seen them of late, as it's much easier to melt a drier snow with less water content (much less thermal energy required to heat a smaller mass of water) than a wet and pasty snow, so I do think your urban corridor will have trouble at first, even though it has been colder than times prior in preceding events. However, outside the urban corridor and once the base layer and rate of melting is overcome, maximized dendritic growth and synoptic/meso-scale forcing mechanisms will lend themselves to robust accumulations pretty rapidly. Even in the urban corridor, I do think amounts will have a decent chance at breaking 6", though I'm admittedly not fully entertaining that idea yet. This about as much as I can offer, and I'm sorry it couldn't be more :/

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Well anything goes at this point so F the Euro.

Look at the 6Z NAM this morning it was horrible and at 12Z it corrected. Lets see what the Euro does on it's next run.

Still plenty of models with great hits for NYC south and east.

Northern people are in trouble but we've known that for days, no surprises despsite the ridiculous WSW for 10-16 inches. I never thought that was happening up here anyway.

If you compare the 00z EURO to today's 12z EURO it did correct and it's probably not finished correcting. So, I would weigh the EURO very lightly. I bet the EURO Ensembles look different than the OP.

That was a strange run. It advanced the heavier snows northward but at the same time decreases the northern sections. What should have happened is the precip shield as a whole moves northward. Doesn't make sense to me.

It might see the difficulty northern areas will have moistening up that dense cold dry air mass we have sitting over us. It happens.

I just noticed Frank said basically the same thing several conversations up.

The H5 of the EURO was better than the surface depiction - sorry if I misled you folks BUT as our great leader said the NW cut off is to extreme and it did job about 50 miles North.

To Frank's map!!

Sleeting

Bill Evans has called this storm a "dumpster fire beast"

Sleet/snow/rain mix in Manasquan

As a follow-up, the lack of a jet extension across northern NY State really does not make me think nice thoughts north and west of about I-80.

Bernie Rayno, breaking my damn heart.

"Upper Low on EURO looks farther S and E to me.looks more & more like a Philly (S/SE Pa), S New Jersey & northern DE storm.Baltimore on western edge of heaviest.Under 6 inches in NYC (in the city) seems very likely to me. S New England looks on edge as well.updated periscope later"

Straight sleet here in Bayville

Bernie is good! hope he is wrong.

Straight sleet here in Bayville

amugs wrote:The H5 of the EURO was better than the surface depiction - sorry if I misled you folks BUT as our great leader said the NW cut off is to extreme and it did job about 50 miles North.

To Frank's map!!

No sweat Mugs.

Paramedics say I have a 50-50 shot to make it.

It has ben quite clear that the euro has trended S&E with the500mb Low.  The deform band will be on the NW side of it, but can only go so far N&W.  Here are thelast 4 runs of the euro..slow and steady it has shifted S&E so it makes sense the axis of heaviest  snow does as well.  The euro is one global I would listen too with this sort of development.

sroc4 wrote:It has ben quite clear that the euro has trended S&E with the500mb Low.  The deform band will be on the NW side of it, but can only go so far N&W.  Here are thelast 4 runs of the euro..slow and steady it has shifted S&E so it makes sense the axis of heaviest  snow does as well.  The euro is one global I would listen too with this sort of development.

Crap. Do you think it's done trending S & E?

Straight sleet here in Bayville

The GFS H5 is just as south (maybe even more east) than the EURO but it still has good snow extending north.

SoulSingMG wrote:Bernie Rayno, breaking my damn heart.

"Upper Low on EURO looks farther S and E to me.looks more & more like a Philly (S/SE Pa), S New Jersey & northern DE storm.Baltimore on western edge of heaviest.Under 6 inches in NYC (in the city) seems very likely to me. S New England looks on edge as well.updated periscope later"

Shit. I love Bernie. I think he’s usually really good

I'm not even sure if its to be believed, but Frank made mention f the confluence to the north this am. Could it end up stronger than modeled and 500mb low ends up further S&E??? Sure. Ive looked at H5 on NAM and RGEM and they are about the same plus or minus only a small amt. The difference seems to be in how far north the vorticity gets. The main deform band looks like its over NYC and points east, but there looks like smaller bands will form to the N&W as well. But like the last 3 we wil have screw zone inbetween bands due to subsidence.

This was the EURO snow map the ONE DAY before the January 2016 blizzard. Busted...big time.

EURO is not what it used to be. Very curious to see what EPS show.