March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Page 2 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 21 ... 40  Next

Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:12 am

billg315 wrote:I'm not sure I get all the talk of eastward trends? From what I've seen, ONE model (the NAM) jumped east last night.  That happens to be the model that was waaaay WEST at 0z yesterday evening. Not sure I would trust the model that had 20" of snow in NW NJ last at 0Z and then suddenly flurries at 6z run, when other models are staying more consistent.  All the other models are status quo more or less. As for cutoffs, if we're talking about PA and far NW NJ, there's always been a good chance of a sharp cutoff there (look at my snow map yesterday, which was done before any east shift in the NAM).

You are correct. Though some models struggle with taking the SLP north of a certain latitude. It never gets to the BM. Instead it moves due east. EURO hinted at this last night, hence the lighter totals to the north. Difference with NAM and EURO though is EURO manages to tap into the dynamics and still get banding into our area.

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18185
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:13 am

I think this is overdone but who knows at this point. This is 8 PM tomorrow and still snowing. I'd sign for that 11 inches right now and run with it.


avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5801
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Taffy on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:22 am

amugs; From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp and needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here



I won't feel safe until Frank picks a banner and we are out of "Storm Mode". Laughing
avatar
Taffy
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 481
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-10-06
Location : Westfield, NJ. Union County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:25 am

09z SREFS


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18185
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:26 am

Frank_Wx wrote:09z SREFS


Mean is about 9” for NYC on east
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:32 am

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:09z SREFS


Mean is about 9” for NYC on east

The SREFS always seem to overdo the precipitation amounts at least in my mind. Is that a false perception of mine or do you find the same thing? I'm throwing this out there to anyone to answer.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5801
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:35 am

CP, I find them to over-do qpf as well but that is why it's important to understand current observations. There is a lot of convection firing up in the south. Tight pressure gradients to our north will bring about frontogenesis over NJ and NYC. Not sure how far north that frontogenesis gets. GFS has it over NYC Metro and just N&W.



_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18185
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by adamfitz1969 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:58 am

NAM showing improvements, the 6z was a blip. Even storm 1 has improved.

adamfitz1969

Posts : 74
Reputation : 13
Join date : 2018-03-01
Age : 48
Location : Tarrytown

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Quietace on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:07 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I think this is overdone but who knows at this point. This is 8 PM tomorrow and still snowing. I'd sign for that 11 inches right now and run with it.


The ARW cores are trash.

_________________
Ryan
B.S. Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Graduate Meteorology Student at Florida State University
avatar
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3527
Reputation : 29
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 21
Location : Tallahassee, FL

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:09 am

12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:12 am

4pm Wednesday:

avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:13 am

All snow this run. Cut out the sleet
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by adamfitz1969 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:15 am

This is blizzard territory. What a run.

adamfitz1969

Posts : 74
Reputation : 13
Join date : 2018-03-01
Age : 48
Location : Tarrytown

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Scullybutcher on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:17 am

aiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC

I like the sound of that
avatar
Scullybutcher
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 434
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-02-06
Location : North Smithtown, western Suffolk county, long island

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by algae888 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:19 am

aiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
Okay I'm all in now nam crushes us. What really S
telling is my temperature right now 30 degrees with a dew point of 9 I believe whatever Falls tonight and tomorrow will have no problem accumulating my grass was frozen this morning
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4668
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:23 am

12z nam major Godzilla and def possible b word!! 12 plus and a spot in NJ just SW of NYC with 20 wow.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14833
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:24 am

algae888 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
Okay I'm all in now nam crushes us. What really S
telling is my temperature right now 30 degrees with a dew point of 9 I believe whatever Falls tonight and tomorrow will have no problem accumulating my grass was frozen this morning
I'm excited Al hoping we finally get our biggie this year!!
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 14833
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:24 am



avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:25 am

NAM!!!!!!!!!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9519
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:26 am

From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp adn needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here!!
Well well - easy now fancy pants - NAM has just dropped teh Mic Peeps - NWS is on this biggly!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9519
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:28 am

Upton hinting at possible now dont blow teh roof here but possibly hoisting B warnings for LI and then redressing for NYC Metro. I know Goodman from Upton and he said they just are waiting for 12Z suite to finish - need a little more support but it is on the table for NYC Metro.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9519
Reputation : 106
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:29 am


avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:30 am

algae888 wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
Okay I'm all in now nam crushes us. What really S
telling is my temperature right now 30 degrees with a dew point of 9 I believe whatever Falls tonight and tomorrow will have no problem accumulating my grass was frozen this morning

Al you have been very noticeably absent from this one?

Depression from the last three? Scared of getting shafted again? We've all been there.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5801
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 56
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:30 am

amugs wrote:Upton hinting at possible now dont blow teh roof here but possibly hoisting B warnings for LI and then redressing for NYC Metro. I know Goodman from Upton and he said they just are waiting for 12Z suite to finish - need a little more support but it is on the table for NYC Metro.

Woah so blizzard warnings should be issued within an hour or 2?
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3532
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jimv45 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:31 am

I will take the latest Nam for southern Dutchess, but boy northern areas get the shaft big time.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 972
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : dutchess county ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 40 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 21 ... 40  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum