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March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

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Post by bloc1357 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:
aiannone wrote:UMMMM......
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Captur23

eh. I don't need that roof anyway. Weather should be warm soon. Shocked

Best comment of the day right here ahahahahahahahaha dude, I'm honestly in stitches right now, this is hilarious lmaooooo

That dark yellow kinda looks like Godzilla eating long island...lol

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Post by Taffy Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:35 pm

I've gone up another 2 degrees to 37 degrees. Winds are ESE @10mph. Dew point is 14.

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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:36 pm

Doc, Cp And I got the last 3 now its your turn, congrats as this looks like A southern slider with the dry and dense cold air doing the pushing down up here.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:36 pm

3km is not nearly as nuts at the 12km but still a godzilla.
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:36 pm

Heavy sleet now here in Monmouth county, coating the ground now

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:40 pm

Do not understand why 3km is so much lower than the 12km, usually its much higher, I will take the 12km lol, of course I would still be happy with this too, but sorry gonna get greedy on this one its our only shot.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Hires_25
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:42 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Heavy sleet now here in Monmouth county, coating the ground now

was just going to type that...
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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:42 pm

Jman why not take this so most of this board would be happy?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:43 pm

aiannone wrote:UMMMM......
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Captur23

That's a NYC spring and possibly March record breaker if it verified. I'm in this for the stats now, I don't even care if I get shafted, I still have plenty left from the last 3.

Spring single storm record is 11.8 for NYC they definitely have a shot.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Do not understand why 3km is so much lower than the 12km, usually its much higher, I will take the 12km lol, of course I would still be happy with this too, but sorry gonna get greedy on this one its our only shot.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Hires_25

Looks nothing like the regular Nam precip map.

Why the huge difference north?

Not that I'm complaining.
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Post by jimv45 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:47 pm

Boy that's the way CP, northern folks seem to want to see others do well.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:49 pm

jimv45 wrote:Boy that's the way CP, northern folks seem to want to see others do well.
Jim, even CP has agreed that I can pray for a big storm, I have been shafter on almost every storm this year, and areas just around me done well. I do want everyone to do well, but lets face it no one storm is going to hit everyone hard, its us southern westchester and NYC turn, If others don't agree sorry.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:56 pm

18z rgem looks like 18z nam

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Post by Grselig Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
jimv45 wrote:Boy that's the way CP, northern folks seem to want to see others do well.
Jim, even CP has agreed that I can pray for a big storm, I have been shafter on almost every storm this year, and areas just around me done well.  I do want everyone to do well, but lets face it no one storm is going to hit everyone hard, its us southern westchester and NYC turn, If others don't agree sorry.

It would be great if everyone got Roided!! Thats optimal. But I do think that those who have not been hit should get preference. I did get an 19 inch storm, so that was my big ticket. But we can't control any of this!! Good luck to all!
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Post by bloc1357 Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:56 pm

sleet here south shore LI

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:57 pm

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Mog111
Sanchize06 wrote:Wow

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Sn10_acc.us_ne
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Post by emokid51783 Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:03 pm



i can't imaging that NAM verifying but g-d!

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Post by Taffy Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:09 pm

Temp is 37 winds are ESE @10. Very light drizzle started about 10 minutes ago.
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Post by Guest Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Do not understand why 3km is so much lower than the 12km, usually its much higher, I will take the 12km lol, of course I would still be happy with this too, but sorry gonna get greedy on this one its our only shot.

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Hires_25
Mask CP. he knows

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:13 pm

Lee Goldberg says he will be updating his snow amounts shortly. Hinted at upping amounts in portions of the area.
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Post by Taffy Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:15 pm

Temp is 37 winds are ESE @10. Very light drizzle started about 10 minutes ago.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:15 pm

Rgem slams central NJ, not exactly the same Frank, the banding sets up over central Nj and LI,I see about half as much snow as nam.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:21 pm

UPTON'S latest:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 3a486d10
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:22 pm

12z HDRPS, in line with 12km NAM

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Hrdps_15
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:23 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:UPTON'S latest:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 3a486d10
The lowered totals? Thats odd, by 2 inches for all numbers noted.
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:24 pm

18z RGEM

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 12 Sn10_acc.us_ne

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:28 pm

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following is stated with a request to please check back on
our 4 AM products tomorrow morning. But as of this writing...we
continue to need to sound the siren for major or extreme impact
for the I95 corridor to I80 Wednesday afternoon and night.

Major and dangerous probable record breaking March winter snow
storm (pasting!) for both the 2 day total and the month of
March for parts of our area (NNJ for the month, PHL the storm)
with impassable roads expected and possibly the greatest number
of power outages from any storm so far in March. This continues
to look HUGE and potential extreme impact I95 corridor up to
I80.

Take this storm seriously and prepare for changing your daily
plans, especially Wednesday. Unnecessary travel is not recommended
Wednesday in eastern PA and the northwest two thirds of NJ. It
could be life threatening if disabled in rural areas. If you
have to travel, plan for much much longer commutes. Potential
exists widespread cancellations in eastern PA and much of nw NJ.

This forecast today was split between myself Wednesday through
Friday, and Lance, Friday night through the weekend.

Growing 12z/20 model consensus (exception the seemingly lagging
op 12z/20 ECMWF?) with heavy reliance on the NAM 12 and 3KM as
well as the bountiful model qpf from the RGEM/GGEM, UKMET.

We expect widespread 1 to 3 inches of qpf from this, heaviest se
PA thru northern and central NJ, Banding will be a huge
contributor. The northwest fringe of our area from KMPO to High
Point may escape with only 6 to 10 inches of snow but it is now
expected that widespread storm totals 10-20" will occur I95
corridor nwwd with isolated 25 inch amounts possible some where
between I95 and and I80...probably best chance hilly areas of
northern NJ where some 30 inches has already occurred this
month.

The forecast snow total map includes todays sleet/snow mix and
the anticipated much greater snowfall on Wednesday. Please
realize that pavement amounts will be considerably less but we
expect at least 7 inches on all pavements in NJ/e PA from this
storm as a minimum and at least 3" pavements elsewhere to the se
of I95. We forecast for the traditional accumulating surfaces
including homes/trees/wires and that is what will cause the
power outages...ie 6" or more of wet snow (32-33F) should
trigger a sharp increase in power outages Wednesday afternoon.
Also wind driven wet snow or freezing rain clinging to branches
and wires will be part of the power outage problem. Our forecast
amounts are presented on our winter wx page and social media
briefing packages serves as a good start! Have been
uncomfortable forecasting these amounts the past two days in our
area, late season and what not, but the recent advances in
modeling and snow forecasting science tells us these amounts
are probable including running qpf from snow ratios.


Wednesday and Wednesday night through 2 am Thursday...By 00z/22
(Wednesday evening), our forecast area will have been in
constant 3 to 4 standard deviation 850MB easterly flow with
pretty high values of moisture flux for 24hours!!, beginning
late this afternoon and continuing through Wednesday afternoon.
This less extreme easterly flow inflow might normally mean less
qpf, but the unusually long duration has to make up for the
normally faster newd movement of the 850MB ely inflow. I think
this justifies the NAM and GGEM QPF and resultant excessive late
season snowfall.

As the 500 mb associated heights lower, whatever remains of the
remaining above freezing 880-800MB layer is cooled to freezing
around 12z/Wednesday along and nw of I95, and any mixed
precipitation will change to snow. (We think the NAM warm nose
is a bit overdone but respect it becoming more pronounced this
evening before cooling tomorrow morning).

Bands of cirrus will increase the seeding potential (potential
thunder snow) and there is considerable agreement that FGEN
banding will develop on the northwest periphery of the deepening
mid Atlc coast cyclone. That will mean 1-3"/hr accumulations at
times Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially I95 westward.
This with snow water ratios of 11 or 12 to 1 e PA and nNJ (near
9 or 10 to 1 I95 should result in record breaking (see climate
section). If thunderstorms occur (we saw lightning in clouds in
nw VA and around 11z and recently se of DC around 1320z), then
we may have a repeat of 3-4" hr snowfall rates. There is still
uncertainty on whether thunder will occur.

Strong winds, with gusts around 45 mph, primarily along the coast,
and primarily during the morning. This will could cause power
problems, especially if there is already a snow load on trees
and power lines. The strongest winds may occur before the heaviest
snow, although that is still somewhat uncertain. I also don`t
think these strong winds will contribute too much to blowing
snow prior to the evening commute. This will be a very heavy
wet snow which should limit the blowing snow threat until
sundown Wednesday. For now consider this heart attack - power
outage snow, pasted street signs.

Late Wednesday night after 2 am Thursday...snow tapering off
late with gusty northwest winds to 25 MPH.

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