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March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

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Post by Frank_Wx March 20th 2018, 11:12 pm

I am too tired to redraw a new map. But the changes I would make are minimal. Here is my original final call:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 Final_Call

What I would change is...

*Extend the dark shade of blue (10-15") more N&W into most of NW NJ, SW NY, and central CT

That is the main change. I still think 10-15 inches for everyone in the dark blue is likely. Those in yellow are also a 10-15 inch forecast with the potential for 15"+ depending on where best banding forms.

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Post by SoulSingMG March 20th 2018, 11:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Guess who I'm quoting..... Laughing  Laughing

"You have to throw the 0z NAM entirely in the trash, especially the 3KM version.
Easy. Look off the MidATL coast. Watch how our lead low NEVER moves on the model & the 2ndary low runs over/through it. AN absolutely impossibility. It's garbage. Amazing garbage, but garbage."

I've been reading his posts a bit on other sites and I have to say that STRONGLY DISLIKE him. Not because I don't think he's a good met, I have essentially no knowledge of him until recently so I cannot say one way or the other. But he is a very condescending and arrogant individual from what I've seen. Very off-putting.

That's his MO. Lol. CRANKY. I am getting tired of the constant "have to prove my point with Max character tweets", tho I've never seen anyone disect every single thing like he does.

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Post by Guest March 20th 2018, 11:14 pm

Goodnight. L check back in once at 3 am when I put more wood on

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Post by weatherwatchermom March 20th 2018, 11:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I am too tired to redraw a new map. But the changes I would make are minimal. Here is my original final call:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 Final_Call

What I would change is...

*Extend the dark shade of blue (10-15") more N&W into most of NW NJ, SW NY, and central CT

That is the main change. I still think 10-15 inches for everyone in the dark blue is likely. Those in yellow are also a 10-15 inch forecast with the potential for 15"+ depending on where best banding forms.
thank you Frank i saw the posts earlier and was afraid you were going to say cnj and coast should go to c-3...good night let's see what tom brings
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Post by SoulSingMG March 20th 2018, 11:16 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Goodnight. L check back in once at 3 am when I put more wood on

Didn't realize the Euro got you worked up like that! bananadude

In all seriousness, the euro better get it together and come back north.
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Post by Frank_Wx March 20th 2018, 11:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 5ab1cb75c9d01

The recon data may be doing wonky things to these models. This was the 18z RGEM snow map for comparison

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 5ab1ccafd7046

These types of shifts (saw it with the NAM too) less than 12 hours before start time are unheard of. Also keep in mind we DO have confluence to the north and I am uncertain how far north these bands actually get. I see the 500mb and 700mb tracking north but then making that sharp turn east once they "feel" the block. Therefore, I am discounting the 00z models tonight. All of them. And am sticking with my final call snow map (besides the change I just announced). I believe there will be a cut-off to the north just not as sharp. My snow map is not extreme with the cut offs.

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Post by oldtimer March 20th 2018, 11:22 pm

Will I get dry slotted Frank

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Post by Frank_Wx March 20th 2018, 11:24 pm

00z German

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 5ab1cfe07e6f9

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Post by Sanchize06 March 20th 2018, 11:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z German

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 5ab1cfe07e6f9

That looks much better haha

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Post by Smittyaj623 March 20th 2018, 11:26 pm

Well, I love he German. All hail the German model!!!

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Post by SoulSingMG March 20th 2018, 11:30 pm

Everyone is freaking out right now in Philly lol
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Post by toople March 20th 2018, 11:36 pm

What time is the storm expected to start? I live in Nutley, NJ.

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Post by aiannone March 20th 2018, 11:36 pm

WPC threw out both NAMs

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow March 20th 2018, 11:38 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Pretty boy Lonnie Smith has his sleeves rolled up. He said NYC has never seen a storm after March 15th. of more than 10 inches. Is that true? Question

Lonnie Smith should be fired

Top 4 Snowstorms after March 15th NYC

1…..11.8…..March 19-20, 1958
2…..11.6…..March 18-19, 1956
3…..10.2…..April 3-4, 1915
4…..10.0…..April 13, 1875
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Post by Sanchize06 March 20th 2018, 11:39 pm

Not a bad run from the GFS, but is a little east and weaker

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Post by aiannone March 20th 2018, 11:39 pm

GFS
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 121d4e10
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 621c5d10

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Post by Sanchize06 March 20th 2018, 11:42 pm

I feel like we had better consensus before 0z's started lol

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Post by rb924119 March 20th 2018, 11:45 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:Pretty boy Lonnie Smith has his sleeves rolled up. He said NYC has never seen a storm after March 15th. of more than 10 inches. Is that true? Question

Lonnie Smith should be fired

Top 4 Snowstorms after March 15th NYC

1…..11.8…..March 19-20, 1958
2…..11.6…..March 18-19, 1956
3…..10.2…..April 3-4, 1915
4…..10.0…..April 13, 1875

He must be using the old conservancy numbers told ya

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Post by oldtimer March 20th 2018, 11:46 pm

Alex Are we in the same place as before now that the 2 NAMS were thrown out ? And Congrats on Exam

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Post by rb924119 March 20th 2018, 11:57 pm

Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 Img_1436

Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow March 21st 2018, 12:05 am

rb924119 wrote:Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 Img_1436

Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao

Confirmation of the snow hole RB, I'm a believer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU93NiF12qs

Time to move, I think 10 miles in any direction will be an improvement. 20 miles SSW and you'd have 71 inches this year and the whole month of March with deep snow cover. Consider it, you don't want to end up miserable like Mikey.
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Post by aiannone March 21st 2018, 12:07 am

oldtimer wrote:Alex  Are we in the same place as before now that the 2 NAMS were thrown out ?    And Congrats on Exam

Thanks! And yes, I’d say all is on track still

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Post by rb924119 March 21st 2018, 12:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 Img_1436

Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao

Confirmation of the snow hole RB, I'm a believer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU93NiF12qs

Time to move, I think 10 miles in any direction will be an improvement. 20 miles SSW and you'd have 71 inches this year and the whole month of March with deep snow cover. Consider it, you don't want to end up miserable like Mikey.

Or just back home in NEPA where they have way more than you......annually AhahAha

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Post by 2004blackwrx March 21st 2018, 12:16 am

Rb i know that snow hole very well. At least the models are finally showing recognizing it. I wonder if it has to do with the large hills and moutains around us sucking the moisture out of the system.
There is also a regular snow hole just south of peekskil right on the river im waiting for models to pick that up.

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Post by Math23x7 March 21st 2018, 12:18 am

Within the past hour, the air temperature rose and dew point temperature dropped, not what I like to see.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow March 21st 2018, 12:24 am

rb924119 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 23 Img_1436

Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao

Confirmation of the snow hole RB, I'm a believer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU93NiF12qs

Time to move, I think 10 miles in any direction will be an improvement. 20 miles SSW and you'd have 71 inches this year and the whole month of March with deep snow cover. Consider it, you don't want to end up miserable like Mikey.

Or just back home in NEPA where they have way more than you......annually AhahAha

What town and what do they average? Also what's the elevation there?
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Post by SoulSingMG March 21st 2018, 12:26 am

Math23x7 wrote:Within the past hour, the air temperature rose and dew point temperature dropped, not what I like to see.

I'm curious what it is you *do like to see because you only seem to comment when it's "negative" against a storm's performance. What storm in recent memory pre-impressed you prior to its fruition? Genuinely curious, not being snarky :-)

Regarding temps, this baby's gonna explode south of us and precip rates will be impressive. Temp profile is also better for this storm than any of the previous ones we've tracked this March. Should be a solid Spring performance.
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