March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
I am too tired to redraw a new map. But the changes I would make are minimal. Here is my original final call:
What I would change is...
*Extend the dark shade of blue (10-15") more N&W into most of NW NJ, SW NY, and central CT
That is the main change. I still think 10-15 inches for everyone in the dark blue is likely. Those in yellow are also a 10-15 inch forecast with the potential for 15"+ depending on where best banding forms.
What I would change is...
*Extend the dark shade of blue (10-15") more N&W into most of NW NJ, SW NY, and central CT
That is the main change. I still think 10-15 inches for everyone in the dark blue is likely. Those in yellow are also a 10-15 inch forecast with the potential for 15"+ depending on where best banding forms.
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
rb924119 wrote:SoulSingMG wrote:Guess who I'm quoting.....
"You have to throw the 0z NAM entirely in the trash, especially the 3KM version.
Easy. Look off the MidATL coast. Watch how our lead low NEVER moves on the model & the 2ndary low runs over/through it. AN absolutely impossibility. It's garbage. Amazing garbage, but garbage."
I've been reading his posts a bit on other sites and I have to say that STRONGLY DISLIKE him. Not because I don't think he's a good met, I have essentially no knowledge of him until recently so I cannot say one way or the other. But he is a very condescending and arrogant individual from what I've seen. Very off-putting.
That's his MO. Lol. CRANKY. I am getting tired of the constant "have to prove my point with Max character tweets", tho I've never seen anyone disect every single thing like he does.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Goodnight. L check back in once at 3 am when I put more wood on
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
thank you Frank i saw the posts earlier and was afraid you were going to say cnj and coast should go to c-3...good night let's see what tom bringsFrank_Wx wrote:I am too tired to redraw a new map. But the changes I would make are minimal. Here is my original final call:
What I would change is...
*Extend the dark shade of blue (10-15") more N&W into most of NW NJ, SW NY, and central CT
That is the main change. I still think 10-15 inches for everyone in the dark blue is likely. Those in yellow are also a 10-15 inch forecast with the potential for 15"+ depending on where best banding forms.
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
syosnow94 wrote:Goodnight. L check back in once at 3 am when I put more wood on
Didn't realize the Euro got you worked up like that!
In all seriousness, the euro better get it together and come back north.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:
The recon data may be doing wonky things to these models. This was the 18z RGEM snow map for comparison
These types of shifts (saw it with the NAM too) less than 12 hours before start time are unheard of. Also keep in mind we DO have confluence to the north and I am uncertain how far north these bands actually get. I see the 500mb and 700mb tracking north but then making that sharp turn east once they "feel" the block. Therefore, I am discounting the 00z models tonight. All of them. And am sticking with my final call snow map (besides the change I just announced). I believe there will be a cut-off to the north just not as sharp. My snow map is not extreme with the cut offs.
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Will I get dry slotted Frank
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
00z German
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:00z German
That looks much better haha
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Well, I love he German. All hail the German model!!!
Smittyaj623- Posts : 73
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Everyone is freaking out right now in Philly lol
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
What time is the storm expected to start? I live in Nutley, NJ.
toople- Posts : 67
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
WPC threw out both NAMs
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
GreyBeard wrote:Pretty boy Lonnie Smith has his sleeves rolled up. He said NYC has never seen a storm after March 15th. of more than 10 inches. Is that true?
Lonnie Smith should be fired
Top 4 Snowstorms after March 15th NYC
1…..11.8…..March 19-20, 1958
2…..11.6…..March 18-19, 1956
3…..10.2…..April 3-4, 1915
4…..10.0…..April 13, 1875
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Not a bad run from the GFS, but is a little east and weaker
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
I feel like we had better consensus before 0z's started lol
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:GreyBeard wrote:Pretty boy Lonnie Smith has his sleeves rolled up. He said NYC has never seen a storm after March 15th. of more than 10 inches. Is that true?
Lonnie Smith should be fired
Top 4 Snowstorms after March 15th NYC
1…..11.8…..March 19-20, 1958
2…..11.6…..March 18-19, 1956
3…..10.2…..April 3-4, 1915
4…..10.0…..April 13, 1875
He must be using the old conservancy numbers
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Alex Are we in the same place as before now that the 2 NAMS were thrown out ? And Congrats on Exam
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:
Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao
Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
rb924119 wrote:Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:
Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao
Confirmation of the snow hole RB, I'm a believer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU93NiF12qs
Time to move, I think 10 miles in any direction will be an improvement. 20 miles SSW and you'd have 71 inches this year and the whole month of March with deep snow cover. Consider it, you don't want to end up miserable like Mikey.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
oldtimer wrote:Alex Are we in the same place as before now that the 2 NAMS were thrown out ? And Congrats on Exam
Thanks! And yes, I’d say all is on track still
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:rb924119 wrote:Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:
Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao
Confirmation of the snow hole RB, I'm a believer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU93NiF12qs
Time to move, I think 10 miles in any direction will be an improvement. 20 miles SSW and you'd have 71 inches this year and the whole month of March with deep snow cover. Consider it, you don't want to end up miserable like Mikey.
Or just back home in NEPA where they have way more than you......annually AhahAha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Rb i know that snow hole very well. At least the models are finally showing recognizing it. I wonder if it has to do with the large hills and moutains around us sucking the moisture out of the system.
There is also a regular snow hole just south of peekskil right on the river im waiting for models to pick that up.
There is also a regular snow hole just south of peekskil right on the river im waiting for models to pick that up.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Within the past hour, the air temperature rose and dew point temperature dropped, not what I like to see.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
rb924119 wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:rb924119 wrote:Where's CP at???? Even the NWS acknowledges my presence in Fishkill!!!!!! Their latest grid:
Unbelievable lol you couldn't DRAW that any better and this is their modeled blend lmao
Confirmation of the snow hole RB, I'm a believer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU93NiF12qs
Time to move, I think 10 miles in any direction will be an improvement. 20 miles SSW and you'd have 71 inches this year and the whole month of March with deep snow cover. Consider it, you don't want to end up miserable like Mikey.
Or just back home in NEPA where they have way more than you......annually AhahAha
What town and what do they average? Also what's the elevation there?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Math23x7 wrote:Within the past hour, the air temperature rose and dew point temperature dropped, not what I like to see.
I'm curious what it is you *do like to see because you only seem to comment when it's "negative" against a storm's performance. What storm in recent memory pre-impressed you prior to its fruition? Genuinely curious, not being snarky :-)
Regarding temps, this baby's gonna explode south of us and precip rates will be impressive. Temp profile is also better for this storm than any of the previous ones we've tracked this March. Should be a solid Spring performance.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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