March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Page 38 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:34 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 500mb_sf
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 700mb_sf

This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result of divergence in between these two centers you will not get consistent convection.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Pmsl11


The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.  


Lol! I am laughing out loud. Thanks tho—this actually makes more sense to me. Could this mean the HRRR for example is "chasing" the wrong (1st) wave energy hence the eastern runs of late?

God I hope so.

But I'll leave the scientific analysis to Sroc.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6191
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jake732 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:35 pm

i just dont get how im still rain..what a stupid bust so far for me
jake732
jake732
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2016-01-03
Location : lakewood, nj

View user profile http://www.lakewood732.com

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:35 pm

This is what I was referring to
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Captur85
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3733
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:35 pm

The surface Lows are not phasing per se. The track and deepening of the H5 ULL will determine where the newest primary center of surface low pressure will form. And no the inland low IS NOT stronger than modeled. it is well within the avg of where the models had it at this time.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6243
Reputation : 247
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by snowlover78 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

Heavy snow 3+ inches

snowlover78

Posts : 75
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2016-01-20
Location : Plumstead, Ocean County, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:The surface Lows are not phasing per se.  The track and deepening of the H5 ULL will determine where the newest primary center of surface low pressure will form.  And no the inland low IS NOT stronger than modeled.  it is well within the avg of where the models had it at this time.  

Thanks for that explanation Scott
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3733
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

aiannone wrote:This is what I was referring to
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Captur85

But look now

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Pmsl

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6243
Reputation : 247
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by crippo84 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Brooklyn already has 4" of snow...

Yeah I don't see what all the fuss is about. Still snowing heavily here in Brooklyn - I can confirm that 4 inches. Look at the band that just refuses to dissipate over NYC. This has been a hell of an appetizer - but always room for the main course later Wink
crippo84
crippo84

Posts : 264
Reputation : 13
Join date : 2013-11-07
Age : 35
Location : Manhattan

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Artechmetals on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:37 pm

Very fine flakes here in Livingston still light snow
Artechmetals
Artechmetals
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 522
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 52
Location : Livingston , NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Vinnydula on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:38 pm

Coming down now! Finally sticking
Vinnydula
Vinnydula
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 692
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2013-12-12
Location : Dobbs ferry

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:39 pm

Big Flakes under this band
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Captur86
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3733
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:The surface Lows are not phasing per se.  The track and deepening of the H5 ULL will determine where the newest primary center of surface low pressure will form.  And no the inland low IS NOT stronger than modeled.  it is well within the avg of where the models had it at this time.  

I actually don't think they were ever suppose to "phase" (outside of 10 day old runs I believe). Does anyone know if the HRRR, RGEM etc has current obs on point when they begin their run?
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2600
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:40 pm

back to moderate snow
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1953
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 33
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by algae888 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:41 pm

frank 638 wrote:what time is this storm going to happen i am getting tired of this light snow with coating on the ground
I don't get how it's not snowing in the Bronx less than 5 minutes from me when it's snowing heavily here everything co
ver including the roads over 2in on the ground heaviest snow of the day so far
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4951
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by rb924119 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:42 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 500mb_sf
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 700mb_sf

This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result of divergence in between these two centers you will not get consistent convection.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Pmsl11


The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.  


I agree with your anaylsis, but can you guys comment on this part of their theory. They mentioned the initial low that is inland is stronger than modeled, which in combination with an elongated low off the coast, it's causing that elongated low to be shoved further east, and therefore their phase to occur further off the coast.

The phase has already happened lmao it happened last night and earlier this morning. That's why the trough went negative and is now closed off and strengthening. The phase isn't out over the water. "Phasing" has NOTHING to do with surface features; it's all aloft. So for them to even be saying this is not even scientifically accurate, hence our collective frustration lmao

And no, Soul, I was not yelling at you lmao just trying to sternly get my point across aha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4863
Reputation : 179
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:43 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 68f5d410

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 E45d5f10

He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 500mb_sf
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 700mb_sf

This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result yo get divergence in between these two centers rather than convergence and frontogenesis and you will not get consistent convection or banding..hence the fragmented bands.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Pmsl11


The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.

Thanks, definitely needed this. I think getting screwed on the last 3 nor'easters is making me bias haha

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 897
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:43 pm

Taunton just dropped totals
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Captur87
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3733
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by marin1804 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:43 pm

Had very light snow about an hour ago, and now, absolutely nothing!

marin1804

Posts : 10
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-12-30
Location : Brewster, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by snowlover78 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:44 pm

I agree it is snowing and snowing heavily now.  Please wait it is coming big time.  This is just an appetizer.

snowlover78

Posts : 75
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2016-01-20
Location : Plumstead, Ocean County, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

Snow has picked up again. I currently have 3''.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1578
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 53
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

While I am on the edge of glory over here about to forecast sunny skies and 80° later this afternoon, Governor Cuomo just issued a state of emergency for New York State.


Last edited by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:47 pm; edited 3 times in total
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2600
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

aiannone wrote:Taunton just dropped totals
March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Captur87

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 StormTotalSnowWeb1

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6243
Reputation : 247
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by frank 638 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

algae888 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:what time is this storm going to happen i am getting tired of this light snow with coating on the ground
I don't get how it's not snowing in the Bronx less than 5 minutes from me when it's snowing heavily here everything co
ver including the roads over 2in on the ground heaviest snow of the day so far
just started to snow again coming down pretty good now i just want a foot already is that to much to ask lol

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1931
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 35
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

algae888 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:what time is this storm going to happen i am getting tired of this light snow with coating on the ground
I don't get how it's not snowing in the Bronx less than 5 minutes from me when it's snowing heavily here everything co
ver including the roads over 2in on the ground heaviest snow of the day so far
same here Al snowing lightly roads just wet. If this is it I'm go scream! There is a little on cars sidewalks etc.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15727
Reputation : 79
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by rb924119 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:50 pm

TO FURTHER PROVE OUR POINT:

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Img_1438

SUPPORTED BY REAL-TIME WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, NOT MODELING. EFF THESE GOD DARN HORRIBLE MODELS. ITS CALLED NOWCASTING FOR A GOD DARN REASON.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4863
Reputation : 179
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 38 Empty Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 38 of 40 Previous  1 ... 20 ... 37, 38, 39, 40  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum