March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:34 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(




He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  




This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result of divergence in between these two centers you will not get consistent convection.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  




The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.  


Lol! I am laughing out loud. Thanks tho—this actually makes more sense to me. Could this mean the HRRR for example is "chasing" the wrong (1st) wave energy hence the eastern runs of late?

God I hope so.

But I'll leave the scientific analysis to Sroc.
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jake732 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:35 pm

i just dont get how im still rain..what a stupid bust so far for me
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:35 pm

This is what I was referring to

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:35 pm

The surface Lows are not phasing per se. The track and deepening of the H5 ULL will determine where the newest primary center of surface low pressure will form. And no the inland low IS NOT stronger than modeled. it is well within the avg of where the models had it at this time.

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by snowlover78 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

Heavy snow 3+ inches

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:The surface Lows are not phasing per se.  The track and deepening of the H5 ULL will determine where the newest primary center of surface low pressure will form.  And no the inland low IS NOT stronger than modeled.  it is well within the avg of where the models had it at this time.  

Thanks for that explanation Scott
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

aiannone wrote:This is what I was referring to


But look now


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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by crippo84 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Brooklyn already has 4" of snow...

Yeah I don't see what all the fuss is about. Still snowing heavily here in Brooklyn - I can confirm that 4 inches. Look at the band that just refuses to dissipate over NYC. This has been a hell of an appetizer - but always room for the main course later Wink
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Artechmetals on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:37 pm

Very fine flakes here in Livingston still light snow
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Vinnydula on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:38 pm

Coming down now! Finally sticking
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:39 pm

Big Flakes under this band

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:The surface Lows are not phasing per se.  The track and deepening of the H5 ULL will determine where the newest primary center of surface low pressure will form.  And no the inland low IS NOT stronger than modeled.  it is well within the avg of where the models had it at this time.  

I actually don't think they were ever suppose to "phase" (outside of 10 day old runs I believe). Does anyone know if the HRRR, RGEM etc has current obs on point when they begin their run?
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:40 pm

back to moderate snow
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by algae888 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:41 pm

frank 638 wrote:what time is this storm going to happen i am getting tired of this light snow with coating on the ground
I don't get how it's not snowing in the Bronx less than 5 minutes from me when it's snowing heavily here everything co
ver including the roads over 2in on the ground heaviest snow of the day so far
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by rb924119 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:42 pm

aiannone wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(




He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  




This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result of divergence in between these two centers you will not get consistent convection.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  




The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.  


I agree with your anaylsis, but can you guys comment on this part of their theory. They mentioned the initial low that is inland is stronger than modeled, which in combination with an elongated low off the coast, it's causing that elongated low to be shoved further east, and therefore their phase to occur further off the coast.

The phase has already happened lmao it happened last night and earlier this morning. That's why the trough went negative and is now closed off and strengthening. The phase isn't out over the water. "Phasing" has NOTHING to do with surface features; it's all aloft. So for them to even be saying this is not even scientifically accurate, hence our collective frustration lmao

And no, Soul, I was not yelling at you lmao just trying to sternly get my point across aha

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:43 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Going back to bed :-(




He's just trying to verify his already busted forecast of 3-6" lol as WeatherBob et Al. have been saying, you have to watch the mid-levels, and they aren't here yet. considering the heaviest banding is already located OVER MARYLAND, DELAWARE, AND SE PA, I THINK HIS STATEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING OVER THE WATER IS DISPROVEN, just like Steve D lmao

Thank you rb!!!  Folks listen...maybe even screen shot this post and post it for them to see.  Both of these guys are missing something here.  The 500mb and 700mb lows are still well inland.  




This was ALWAYS a two wave system the second of which was never going to get going until afternoon Wed.  There are two surface low pressure centers as a result of this.  With two centers you will have competition for where the surface winds want to go in between them.  As a result yo get divergence in between these two centers rather than convergence and frontogenesis and you will not get consistent convection or banding..hence the fragmented bands.  This is going to change as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.  




The h5 energy that wave one and generated the subsequent SLP, is being sheared by the confluence and the surface low conts to sit off the coast.  However; it is going to cont to weaken throughout the day.  Why??? Because....  The 500mb low is going to deepen as it slides off the coast...first E then head NE as it passes south of LI   It is then and only then that we will see the new primary take over and be tugged back west some towards the strengthening ULL.    Exactly how far south the H5 ULL passes willl determine if what they say is correct.  So while they may be right in the end, they will be wrong in their reasoning.  We have to wait and see A) what track does the H5 ULL take, and B) how strong does it get.  These guys are Cranky and Stubborn the 8th and 9th dwarfs.

Thanks, definitely needed this. I think getting screwed on the last 3 nor'easters is making me bias haha

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by aiannone on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:43 pm

Taunton just dropped totals

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by marin1804 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:43 pm

Had very light snow about an hour ago, and now, absolutely nothing!

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by snowlover78 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:44 pm

I agree it is snowing and snowing heavily now.  Please wait it is coming big time.  This is just an appetizer.

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

Snow has picked up again. I currently have 3''.
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

While I am on the edge of glory over here about to forecast sunny skies and 80° later this afternoon, Governor Cuomo just issued a state of emergency for New York State.


Last edited by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:47 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

aiannone wrote:Taunton just dropped totals



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by frank 638 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

algae888 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:what time is this storm going to happen i am getting tired of this light snow with coating on the ground
I don't get how it's not snowing in the Bronx less than 5 minutes from me when it's snowing heavily here everything co
ver including the roads over 2in on the ground heaviest snow of the day so far
just started to snow again coming down pretty good now i just want a foot already is that to much to ask lol

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:46 pm

algae888 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:what time is this storm going to happen i am getting tired of this light snow with coating on the ground
I don't get how it's not snowing in the Bronx less than 5 minutes from me when it's snowing heavily here everything co
ver including the roads over 2in on the ground heaviest snow of the day so far
same here Al snowing lightly roads just wet. If this is it I'm go scream! There is a little on cars sidewalks etc.
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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

Post by rb924119 on Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:50 pm

TO FURTHER PROVE OUR POINT:



SUPPORTED BY REAL-TIME WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, NOT MODELING. EFF THESE GOD DARN HORRIBLE MODELS. ITS CALLED NOWCASTING FOR A GOD DARN REASON.

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Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

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