April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Page 2 of 3 Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by billg315 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:50 pm

FWIW, the 18z GFS has a timing very similar to Monday’s storm: a mix of light rain/snow at 1 am, changing to all snow by 5 or 6 am, continuing moderate to heavy most of the day (which is 6 hours longer than Monday). So, if THAT is how this plays out, I see no reason amounts can’t rival Monday and stick to most surfaces like Monday.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2262
Reputation : 116
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by RJB8525 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:10 pm

for what it's worth TWC now has 3-5" Saturday
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1914
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by dkodgis on Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:01 pm

Six inches can be gone, melted in a day. I love the snow but it will melt so fast.
avatar
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 684
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by amugs on Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:08 pm

No NAM maps peeps, not the cap model it once was as it has done very well with our storms overall this winter 


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9725
Reputation : 118
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:10 pm

dkodgis wrote:Six inches can be gone, melted in a day. I love the snow but it will melt so fast.

April is all about seeing the snow fall and setting some records if we’re lucky. You get two or theee days of snow cover in April we’re doing good.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5847
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by oldtimer on Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:16 pm

Amugs. The NAM is showing a rain event?

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1054
Reputation : 13
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 72
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by amugs on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:09 pm

oldtimer wrote:Amugs.  The NAM is showing a rain event?
For the coastal plain yes but time will tell, we have a good cold source incoming from Canada with this from swinging through.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9725
Reputation : 118
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by Snow88 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:19 pm

oldtimer wrote:Amugs.  The NAM is showing a rain event?

Rain to snow but got colder at 18z
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2029
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 30
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by Snow88 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:22 pm

Nam is further south through 45 hours
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2029
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 30
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by aiannone on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:42 pm

NAM delaying precip a bit later into the day. Better for accums
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3547
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by MattyICE on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:49 pm


MattyICE

Posts : 68
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 33
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:56 pm

NAM shows a lot of sleet for the region for Saturday.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2141
Reputation : 49
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by WeatherBob on Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:00 am

Well, we go from decent agreement between the NAM and GFS to heavy snow/ sleet across the area on the NAM to almost the big Goose Egg on the GFS. Positioning of the Front, Positioning of the Front, Positioning of the Front ( I sound like Nancy P ) . Where will the Front be?
avatar
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 543
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 480 ft

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:34 am

Hmm I dunno not go plan on seeing much here. If it happens it will if not I'm okay with that. I had outdoor plans sat and sun so not thrilled.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15300
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by frank 638 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:40 am

AccuWeather has me for 3 to 6 inches of snow and sleet for sat

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1788
Reputation : 16
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 35
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by gigs68 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:21 am

Did models change overnight. Per Bill Evans, storm moved south, we are in upper fringes?
avatar
gigs68

Posts : 127
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-16
Location : Commack, NY (NW Suffolk)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by Quietace on Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:55 am

WeatherBob wrote:Well, we go from decent agreement between the NAM and GFS to heavy snow/ sleet across the area on the NAM to almost the big Goose Egg on the GFS.  Positioning of the Front, Positioning of the Front, Positioning of the Front ( I sound like Nancy P ) .  Where will the Front be?
Pretty good agreement for little impact north of Southern Jersey. West of Dc into central Delmarva etc will get 3-6".

_________________
Ryan
B.S. Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Graduate Meteorology Student at Florida State University
avatar
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3575
Reputation : 29
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 21
Location : Tallahassee, FL

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by billg315 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:12 am

So 6z GFS and NAM both go south. Literally. About 50-75 miles. NAM keeps almost everything south of I-195, the GFS gives a little overnight snow Fri-into-Sat but then keeps the main precip shield south of us Saturday during the day. As always I’d wait until the next runs today. I remember Mondays storm was missing us completely to the South last Friday evening then we we ended up in the jackpot zone two days later.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2262
Reputation : 116
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by docstox12 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:16 am

Wow, that's a huge shift south! Lee Goldberg says after the 12th we torch , so these last events will be the end of the show.
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6249
Reputation : 102
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 68
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by Quietace on Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:17 am

docstox12 wrote:Wow, that's a huge shift south! Lee Goldberg says after the 12th we torch , so these last events will  be the end of the show.
I see about a 4-5 day warm up before going back to normal for a bit.

_________________
Ryan
B.S. Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Graduate Meteorology Student at Florida State University
avatar
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3575
Reputation : 29
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 21
Location : Tallahassee, FL

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:14 am

Quietace wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Wow, that's a huge shift south! Lee Goldberg says after the 12th we torch , so these last events will  be the end of the show.
I see about a 4-5 day warm up before going back to normal for a bit.
as long as it's normal which should get into 60s at least. Torch as in 70s or higher? It's funny 00z gfs had a mothrazilla and now u guts are saying nothing. Off of one run? Are we now living and dying by one run?
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15300
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:20 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Wow, that's a huge shift south! Lee Goldberg says after the 12th we torch , so these last events will  be the end of the show.
I see about a 4-5 day warm up before going back to normal for a bit.
as long as it's normal which should get into 60s at least. Torch as in 70s or higher? It's funny 00z gfs had a mothrazilla and now u guts are saying nothing. Off of one run? Are we now living and dying by one run?

Sorry, but 60s is still above normal this time of year. Even for the heat island of New York City the average high temperature for the day doesn't hit 60° until April 12, even by April 30 the normal high temperature is only 68. I know most people like to think of April  as a warm month but historically it's just not the case.

The average high temperature doesn't even hit 70° in New York City until May 11. Now of course there are stretches that exceed the normal as there are stretches like now that are below normal.
avatar
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 5847
Reputation : 137
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Sector 4

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:52 am

Saturday:Snow likely before noon, then rain and snow likely between noon and 4pm, then rain likely after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday Night:Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 9pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

crapstorm on the menu
avatar
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1914
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:22 am

Looks like 12z NAM is coming north.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1488
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 52
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by billg315 on Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:39 am

Yep 12z NAM is north of 6z run. Not a dramatic shift, but a clear shift north. 6z had northern extent of snow south of a line from Philly to AC at 8 a.m. Saturday; the 12z run has it up to I-78 into Long Island. Heaviest band would still be across Del, SEPA, and SNJ, but it is a shift back in the direction of yesterday's models, so lets see if that is the start of a trend north (as we've seen often of late) to continue north in the 18z runs, or if it is an isolated or final shift.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2262
Reputation : 116
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: April 7th 2018 SNOW!!! AGAIN!!!

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 3 Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum