May 2018 Observations & Discussions

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed May 30, 2018 9:33 am

Next few days will remain overcast. Maybe some glimpses of the sun today and tomorrow. Steady rain could move in late Friday then again Saturday afternoon.

Saturday 8pm:




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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed May 30, 2018 6:50 pm

Ok, I need a favor, my friend is going to propose to his girlfriend this weekend at Bradley Beach. He was planning on 8:20 pm on Saturday, and needs a weather report. The models couldn't be more different. If Saturday is a no go he could do Friday night, but that looks worse. Please help!

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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Wed May 30, 2018 8:56 pm

Janet I think Friday night will be a good idea to propose because sat evening into the night it's going to rain I hope this helps and good luck with ur friend propose

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed May 30, 2018 9:04 pm

Friday looked like a better chance of tstorms though, gfs has rain pretty much Friday through all day Saturday. NAM has hardly anything!

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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed May 30, 2018 11:58 pm

Tonight's runs do look better for Friday night than Saturday night...going to give it til noon runs tomorrow.

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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu May 31, 2018 7:04 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Ok, I need a favor, my friend is going to propose to his girlfriend this weekend at Bradley Beach. He was planning on 8:20 pm on Saturday, and needs a weather report. The models couldn't be more different. If Saturday is a no go he could do Friday night, but that looks worse. Please help!

Good morning Janet.  If I had to guess after analyzing GFS, Euro, RGEM, 12K NAM and 3K NAM that Friday night between 5-7pm offers the greatest probability of decent weather for a proposal.  While both evenings, Fri and Sat, offer chances for rain, Sat looks more consistently overcast and dreary/steady precip after 4-5pm, while Friday's chances seem more hit or miss and likely have clearer skies in between chances.  Like you said the possibility of a down pour or thunderstorm exists tomorrow night, but to me it looks like mid to late afternoon-ish, then again as you head into the later hours of Friday, 8pm-midnight with a window in between for decent weather.  That's the way I see it as o fthis am.  I will re-eval 12z and let you know if it looks any different to me.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Jan 4th 12"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu May 31, 2018 7:27 am

Thanks Scott! That's about what I was going to suggest to him after seeing this morning's runs.

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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu May 31, 2018 7:50 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Thanks Scott! That's about what I was going to suggest to him after seeing this morning's runs.

good luck to him..hope it does not rain!! Smile
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu May 31, 2018 8:46 am

Friday night for sure

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu May 31, 2018 8:47 am

The weather looks so awful - cloudy/cool/rainy - this weekend and next week that I may just locate where Thor lives and persuade him to move NJ into the Caribbean.

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Thu May 31, 2018 10:12 am

Well, trying to be a glass half-full guy, maybe getting the rain, clouds and cool temps out of the way early will leave us with a lot of really nice weekends from late June to Labor Day. Maybe. Wink
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu May 31, 2018 10:19 am

billg315 wrote:Well, trying to be a glass half-full guy, maybe getting the rain, clouds and cool temps out of the way early will leave us with a lot of really nice weekends from late June to Labor Day. Maybe. Wink

That's my thinking too Bill!


Btw, now my friend is asking about Sunday! Rolling Eyes

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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu May 31, 2018 11:44 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well, trying to be a glass half-full guy, maybe getting the rain, clouds and cool temps out of the way early will leave us with a lot of really nice weekends from late June to Labor Day. Maybe. Wink

That's my thinking too Bill!


Btw, now my friend is asking about Sunday! Rolling Eyes

12z conts to make me think Friday night between 5-7 is the time. Tell your friend to quite stalling...lol

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu May 31, 2018 5:53 pm

Jesus it is pitiful looking out

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Thu May 31, 2018 7:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus it is pitiful looking out
its nasty and depressing outside why cant we have this weather in the fall time esp in oct and nov .hopefully we will have our summer soon after next week

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Fededle22 on Thu May 31, 2018 8:01 pm

I'm not asking for it to be 100 degrees outside but I would like it warmer than the 60s. This pattern of raining or cool/damp weather every weekend really does suck. And for all you guys that are already asking for winter.. Come on, give us a break and allow us to enjoy some warm weather so we can be outside with our families.
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:56 am

Despite bouts of dreary/cool weather, May ended up well above normal temp wise and below normal rainfall.
Good enough for another top 10 warmest month at all the major reporting sites..actually top 5 at most sites.

Central Park avg temp:  66.9*  (+4.5*)
6th warmest May on record.

Rain: 3.53" (-0.66)

May (and season to date) 90 degree days:
LGA 4
Newark 4
Teterboro 3
Central Park 2
JFK/Islip 0

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by 1190ftalt on Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:39 pm

Just started pouring and heavy winds thunder and lightning in Stillwater NJ, wow this thing has some punch to it, east of here get inside !

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Fededle22 on Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:29 pm

Wow. Just started pouring out of nowhere here as well. Driving rain against my house with thunder but have not seen any flashes of lightening. Today turned out to be nicer than I thought. Hopefully the weekend is not a total washout.
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Sun Jun 03, 2018 7:42 pm

59 right now

Feels like Autumn

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