May 2018 Observations & Discussions

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sun May 13, 2018 11:32 am

Happy mother's day to all the best mom's in the world

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun May 13, 2018 12:17 pm

Get out the Depends this week peeps it is going to be wet overall but temp look to be AN.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Radz on Sun May 13, 2018 6:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:Scott!!! Well now it's officially a tracking party! Haha
I think quite a few will start peering in as the threat gets closer, and agree tropics may get an early start...
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Quietace on Sun May 13, 2018 6:37 pm

This is a public service announcement.
The GFS schemes are grossly inadequate for forecasting TC's. The FV3 is running more time steps, with the same resolution and physics as the OP GFS currently. This leads to the same errors, which can be exasperated. The GFS will show a TC past day 10 for the rest of the season with little temporal movement towards the near term. This is because it is a systematic error within itself. Thus, do not get worked up over it, and secondly, do not believe it.  
The Caribbean is leaning more favorable in the 10-15 day period for some sort of cyclogeneis. However, there is little certainty if it will occur, and if it does, what will come of it. Once thing is for certain, the GFS is not forming that TC because of pattern progression.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun May 13, 2018 6:38 pm

Earlier on I said the target period would be the 15th-25th for the start of the tropical tracking season. Watch for a feedback system later this week in the Gulf in response to a first trough split, and then what looks like will be a more substantial system later on in this same period. Also, I'm going to set this up too basis what I think will evolve with that that system - I think we will be in store for an overall ugly Memoriak Day Weekend.

Also, and admittedly this is banter, but is related to the topic at hand; I just invested in a second 27" 5k monitor to use with my 27" desktop. Reason? ALL THE BETTER TO FORECAST WITH!!!!!! Can't wait to get it and set it up next week!!!!!!!

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun May 13, 2018 6:43 pm

Quietace wrote:This is a public service announcement.
The GFS schemes are grossly inadequate for forecasting TC's. The FV3 is running more time steps, with the same resolution and physics as the OP GFS currently. This leads to the same errors, which can be exasperated. The GFS will show a TC past day 10 for the rest of the season with little temporal movement towards the near term. This is because it is a systematic error within itself. Thus, do not get worked up over it, and secondly, do not believe it.  
The Caribbean is leaning more favorable in the 10-15 day period for some sort of cyclogeneis. However, there is little certainty if it will occur, and if it does, what will come of it. Once thing is for certain, the GFS is not forming that TC because of pattern progression.

Thanks for the Intel, Ryan!!! I haven't had a chance to delve into the differences, so your information is much appreciated. However, I must respectfully disagree, but only in this certain case, as the solutions those two models, and now the ICON, CMC to a degree, and the CFSV2 are all showing DO fit the pattern profession; and they fit it quite well in my humble opinion. Obviously, as you stated, it's far from certain, but I'm certainly expecting it to play out, and have for some time given the factors in play. In a vast majority of other instances, you are most certainly correct in stating that the GFS is horrible with tropics, as well as pretty much most everything else aha

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun May 13, 2018 6:45 pm

The JMA weeklies also were in strong support of the GFS-type solution.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Quietace on Sun May 13, 2018 6:51 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:This is a public service announcement.
The GFS schemes are grossly inadequate for forecasting TC's. The FV3 is running more time steps, with the same resolution and physics as the OP GFS currently. This leads to the same errors, which can be exasperated. The GFS will show a TC past day 10 for the rest of the season with little temporal movement towards the near term. This is because it is a systematic error within itself. Thus, do not get worked up over it, and secondly, do not believe it.  
The Caribbean is leaning more favorable in the 10-15 day period for some sort of cyclogeneis. However, there is little certainty if it will occur, and if it does, what will come of it. Once thing is for certain, the GFS is not forming that TC because of pattern progression.

Thanks for the Intel, Ryan!!! I haven't had a chance to delve into the differences, so your information is much appreciated. However, I must respectfully disagree, but only in this certain case, as the solutions those two models, and now the ICON, CMC to a degree, and the CFSV2 are all showing DO fit the pattern profession; and they fit it quite well in my humble opinion. Obviously, as you stated, it's far from certain, but I'm certainly expecting it to play out, and have for some time given the factors in play. In a vast majority of other instances, you are most certainly correct in stating that the GFS is horrible with tropics, as well as pretty much most everything else aha
No model is remotely close to the GFS's solution as a result of its poor TC handling. I am not stating that a low will not form, or that it is not favorable. I previously stated the region was favorable for cyclogenesis. I am simply stating that the GFS is forming the low, and then intensifying it, as a result of that poor TC handling. If it was pattern driven (In the model itself), it would not still be at 384 hours. It is no consolation that the EC and its ensembles also are rather weak with it, as is the rest of guidance. I do not have time to go back and forth, but we will see how this pans out over the next few days. All the best RB!

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun May 13, 2018 8:36 pm

Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:This is a public service announcement.
The GFS schemes are grossly inadequate for forecasting TC's. The FV3 is running more time steps, with the same resolution and physics as the OP GFS currently. This leads to the same errors, which can be exasperated. The GFS will show a TC past day 10 for the rest of the season with little temporal movement towards the near term. This is because it is a systematic error within itself. Thus, do not get worked up over it, and secondly, do not believe it.  
The Caribbean is leaning more favorable in the 10-15 day period for some sort of cyclogeneis. However, there is little certainty if it will occur, and if it does, what will come of it. Once thing is for certain, the GFS is not forming that TC because of pattern progression.

Thanks for the Intel, Ryan!!! I haven't had a chance to delve into the differences, so your information is much appreciated. However, I must respectfully disagree, but only in this certain case, as the solutions those two models, and now the ICON, CMC to a degree, and the CFSV2 are all showing DO fit the pattern profession; and they fit it quite well in my humble opinion. Obviously, as you stated, it's far from certain, but I'm certainly expecting it to play out, and have for some time given the factors in play. In a vast majority of other instances, you are most certainly correct in stating that the GFS is horrible with tropics, as well as pretty much most everything else aha
No model is remotely close to the GFS's solution as a result of its poor TC handling. I am not stating that a low will not form, or that it is not favorable. I previously stated the region was favorable for cyclogenesis. I am simply stating that the GFS is forming the low, and then intensifying it, as a result of that poor TC handling. If it was pattern driven (In the model itself), it would not still be at 384 hours. It is no consolation that the EC and its ensembles also are rather weak with it, as is the rest of guidance. I do not have time to go back and forth, but we will see how this pans out over the next few days. All the best RB!

I understand your issue with time constraints, but as a quick counter (again, respectfully), all sources of guidance I mentioned have the "system of interest" now within the 7-10 day period, though as you stated, to varying degrees of intensity. However, the development has consistently remained within the same approximate development period through several days of cycles. I think what you're referencing is more or less the speed of northward/eastward progression, and not necessarily the development. As for the intensification and forecast strength of this system, what PHYSICAL reason(s) do you see to be of the opinion that intensification on the order of what the average of the GFS runs has been is unreasonable, and the other guidance is to be trusted (ignoring model algorithms, etc.)? Personally, I think the GFS/FV3-GFS solutions for the physical forcing mechanisms fit much better than the other guidance, and expect it to begin showing up with more consistency in due time. This is a prime example of pattern recognition versus taking modeling "at face value". Now, I full well know you're a bright meteorologist and you have your reasons, and these questions are not only directed at you, as again, I understand your time constraints - I am merely providing talking points to further this discussion for ANYBODY who wishes to chime in. If you have the time, I'd absolutely love to see your response, though, buddy!!! I hope you're enjoying your official title, my friend!!! Haha

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon May 14, 2018 12:15 pm

Ray spot on brother





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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon May 14, 2018 12:19 pm

rb924119 wrote:I honestly haven't been paying too much attention these last couple weeks. I've been so busy doing firewood on my weekends and then working I haven't much time to actually sit down and look. That said, I DO think the MJO is making itself known as the 6-10 day forecasts appear to be backing down from their corresponding temperature forecasts in the 10-15 over the last several days of cycles. Again, I cannot concretely confirm or deny that, though, as I haven't actually sat down and done "one-to-one" comparisons. I WILL say I'm still very anxious to see if something tropical (or sub-tropical) tries popping once the MJO rolls into Phase 2, as I believe that phase corresponds very well to development in the Gulf and along and/or just offshore of the Southeast coast, as well as the time-mean surface pressures remaining higher than normal across the east-central U.S. thanks to anomalous soil moisture content leading to cooler than average surface temperatures and resultant higher pressure then aided by the MJO Phase 2 (probably should confirm that, but I'm pretty sure I remember reading a paper or two on the MJO a while back......my memory is shotty AT BEST, though so take that with extreme caution hahahaha)

As a follow-up, I like the period from ~May 15th through ~May 25th for our first true tropical/sub-tropical system to develop either in the western/northwestern Caribbean, Gulf, and or extreme western Atlantic. The reasons were generally discussed above, but I also like the look of -AO and negative SOI to assist penetrating, albeit transient troughs cutting through the eastern CONUS. This will help supply the surface ridging and aid in enhanced lower-level convergence along and near the coasts. I'm officially on the board with a forecast, so let's see how this pans out!!! Haha any thoughts?

A trough split will be the most likely culprit that then feeds back close to land rather than a classic tropical system that develops from scratch.

From May 7th:

Love it!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Mon May 14, 2018 12:49 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I honestly haven't been paying too much attention these last couple weeks. I've been so busy doing firewood on my weekends and then working I haven't much time to actually sit down and look. That said, I DO think the MJO is making itself known as the 6-10 day forecasts appear to be backing down from their corresponding temperature forecasts in the 10-15 over the last several days of cycles. Again, I cannot concretely confirm or deny that, though, as I haven't actually sat down and done "one-to-one" comparisons. I WILL say I'm still very anxious to see if something tropical (or sub-tropical) tries popping once the MJO rolls into Phase 2, as I believe that phase corresponds very well to development in the Gulf and along and/or just offshore of the Southeast coast, as well as the time-mean surface pressures remaining higher than normal across the east-central U.S. thanks to anomalous soil moisture content leading to cooler than average surface temperatures and resultant higher pressure then aided by the MJO Phase 2 (probably should confirm that, but I'm pretty sure I remember reading a paper or two on the MJO a while back......my memory is shotty AT BEST, though so take that with extreme caution hahahaha)

As a follow-up, I like the period from ~May 15th through ~May 25th for our first true tropical/sub-tropical system to develop either in the western/northwestern Caribbean, Gulf, and or extreme western Atlantic. The reasons were generally discussed above, but I also like the look of -AO and negative SOI to assist penetrating, albeit transient troughs cutting through the eastern CONUS. This will help supply the surface ridging and aid in enhanced lower-level convergence along and near the coasts. I'm officially on the board with a forecast, so let's see how this pans out!!! Haha any thoughts?

A trough split will be the most likely culprit that then feeds back close to land rather than a classic tropical system that develops from scratch.

From May 7th:

Love it!

Wow. That's some good sh*t right there. Nice work, Rb. Hello everyone else! Severe weather threat looks ripe for mañana!
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon May 14, 2018 9:37 pm

18Z RGEM says NNJ, NYC and LHV, LI gets cruahed


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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Mon May 14, 2018 10:28 pm

Yeah looks like some big storms tomorrow. Hoping they hold off until after 6 pm so I’m home.
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue May 15, 2018 2:14 am

Latest from NWS SPC: Enhanced creeping south and east. We're in for a rockin' Tuesday, kids.



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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Tue May 15, 2018 10:08 am

Partly sunny here


64 degrees


Looking forward to the severe threat later on unless it falls apart before reaching the coast .

ABC 7

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by dkodgis on Tue May 15, 2018 11:49 am

It is about 12 noon. I see the start of that eerie yellow light that starts to shine through when storms are coming in an hour or so Still outside. Muggy. Warm. The storms are coming.
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue May 15, 2018 12:14 pm

Been so busy did t know we under enhanced today. Would like to see some pounding storms. Threat is winds and tornado. This includes NYC area. Lets see if they hold on
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue May 15, 2018 12:30 pm

JUST IN. Holy crap. It is not often you see "moderate" around here.


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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue May 15, 2018 12:48 pm

There is TOO MUCH sunshine to not be very worried about the storms later. Atmosphere is COOKIN.
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jimv45 on Tue May 15, 2018 1:23 pm

Just put under a Tornado watch.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue May 15, 2018 2:24 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:JUST IN. Holy crap. It is not often you see "moderate" around here.


shoot wow for real?! Oh not down here. Still could b pretty bad all way to coast.
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Tue May 15, 2018 2:47 pm

Look at whats chugging our way!! This may rock us big time


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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Tue May 15, 2018 3:09 pm

Dam this is growing and sagging S - goona be a fun time with these or NOT!!!
https://radar.weather.gov/Legend/NCR/BGM_NCR_Legend_0.gif


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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Tue May 15, 2018 4:26 pm

ferocious storms up in Orange county. Anyone up that way here? Tornado warning and some reports of large damaging hail

89 here dew 66. winds picking up and increasing clouds to the NW.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

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