My Summer Outlook 2018

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My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Isotherm on Mon May 28, 2018 9:37 pm

Questions/Comments welcome, as always. A bit later than typical due to time constraints, but glad to have made it prior to the 31st deadline.



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/



Snippet:



The Outlook for the NYC local region stations



Meteorological Summer JJA Temperature Departures: 0 to +1; Near normal to Slightly Warmer than Normal



90 Degree Days: 18-25 Across Most of the NJ-NYC-LI Area; 10-18 along the immediate coast



Meteorological Summer JJA Precipitation Departures: Wet to Much Wetter than Normal; spatial distribution of summertime convection renders greater forecast specificity useless



Hurricane Outlook: Named storms – around 10; Hurricanes – around 5; Major Hurricanes – 1 to 2; Impact – greater than normal potential in South Texas, Florida, and the Southeast US Coastline.

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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue May 29, 2018 9:13 am

Thank you for sharing Tom. A wetter than normal summer is not ideal, but we'll make the most of it. Curious to see how the tropics develop.

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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Isotherm on Tue May 29, 2018 9:49 am

Thanks, Frank. Agree; think there could be a couple of potent, damaging impacts to the US coastline even though activity is suppressed this year. This should be a more interesting T-storm season as well, compared to prior years.
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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by frank 638 on Tue May 29, 2018 2:46 pm

Tom thank you for ur write up and maps u posted for our summer . hopefully it won't be to hot and humid i can't stand the heat esp working in it

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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Isotherm on Wed May 30, 2018 11:44 am

Thanks, Frank.
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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by amugs on Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:03 pm

Thanks for sharing Tom - wetter than normal summer indeed and when teh sun is out it will be sticky as well with all of this moisture laden soil.
Tropics aren't that exciting but will be in close storms like you said Gulf and SE.
MDR looks horrid for trop development with teh colder than normal SST's.

Good luck.

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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:07 pm

Thanks Tom for the write up. Fantastic as usual

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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:43 pm

Tom Great write up. I guess we got to make the best of it. At least my lawn won't go brown on me. Rolling Eyes
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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Isotherm on Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:00 pm

Thanks for the kind words, guys - appreciate the comments!
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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:26 pm

Tom Your summer outlook is right on cue. Well done.

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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Isotherm on Fri Jun 29, 2018 3:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:Tom Your summer outlook is right on cue.  Well done.



Thanks, Scott! Pleased with how we're progressing thus far. As alluded to in the outlook, a significant, 1-2 week period of heat looks to overspread the Northeast for the first half of July. Felt like I barely utilized the A/C in June. Going to be a major change.


"Eventually, by the second half of June, more ridging will extend eastward, and the West Atlantic Ridge should retrograde later in June into July. July may feature at least 2 weeks of very hot weather in the Northeast, relative to normal, with a significant heat wave, as the ridges connect."
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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:58 pm

Finally had time to read this. Good job, right on target so far. With more moisture and the heat it will feel like Florida around here this summer...ick!

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Re: My Summer Outlook 2018

Post by Isotherm on Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:58 pm



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1144



VERIFICATION



See the following United States temperature and precipitation departure maps, respectively:



Last3mTDeptUS



Last3mPDeptUS



Northeastern US temperature departures:



Last3mTDeptNRCC





Local temperature departures for June-July-August in the NJ-NY region included the following:

Newark, NJ: +1.3

JFK, NY: +0.73

New York, NY: +1.4

LGA, NY: +2.6

Islip, NY: +1.8



Mean departure for those stations: +1.56

Thus, it is reasonable to state that, overall (for most locations) temperature departures for summer 2018 fell between approximately +1.0 and +2.0.

My temperature departure map indicated +0.5 to +2 departures for the coastal Northeast, although specific numbers provided for NYC were 0 to +1. Therefore, while the warmer than idea verified, the heat was slightly greater in magnitude than anticipated. The progression for June and July verified very well: cool –> hot. However, August was the most aberrant deviation from the forecasted progression, although, higher dew points were correctly prognosticated throughout the summer.

For the nation as a whole, temperature departures were mostly correct / within range, with the most robust warmth relative to normal in the SW US as expected. The primary flaw was the near-normal area forecasted in the Great Lakes/interior Northeast.

Regarding precipitation, rainfall was above to well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as anticipated. Most of the rest of the country was closer to normal or drier than normal, although, portions of the Mid-west/Ohio Valley were wetter than expected.

Overall, nation-wide, this was a great forecast, and locally, a good to very good forecast, with the principal flaw being a slight underestimation in the magnitude of the heat, especially for the month of August. 90 degree days, forecasted to be 18-25, should have been forecasted as 20-30; however, the range will be close for most locations.

In closing – in consideration of all the aforementioned factors:

I conclude that this summer 2018 forecast verified with a grade of B.

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