June 2018 Obs & Discussions

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Post by amugs on Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:51 pm

If the Euro has anything to say June may not be a great month overall if the trough doesn't lift: From WxBell

June 2018 Obs & Discussions Eps_z500a_168h_nh_2(124)

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June 2018 Obs & Discussions Eps_z500a_168h_nh_6(138)


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Post by frank 638 on Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:59 pm

Nooooooooo not again .let me guess another June like last year then we bake from late July till October and of course we don't have fall anymore

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Post by amugs on Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:06 am

60* and overcast, another cloudy day here.
2/3 of the days as Isotherm reported have been cloudy since March 1.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:30 am

What a difference a day makes...yesterday..hot and sticky today..you need a sweatshirt...lol crazy spring
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Post by amugs on Sun Jun 03, 2018 10:33 am

Road trip anyone?? CP,DOC,SNOWMAN??

June 2018 Obs & Discussions Fb_img10

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Post by frank 638 on Sun Jun 03, 2018 11:47 am

[quote="amugs"]Road trip anyone?? CP,DOC,SNOWMAN??


June 2018 Obs & Discussions Fb_img10[/quoc
count me in lets go lol

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Post by billg315 on Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:19 pm

Somehow avoided the rain here at my house almost all weekend (was sunny most of Saturday) . . until now. Rain has begun and looks like it’s going to continue off and on all night.
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Post by billg315 on Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:20 pm

Def temp drop from yesterday too. Was almost 25 degrees colder here today than yesterday.
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Post by frank 638 on Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:34 am

51*with a wind chill of 47* is this June or Oct what happened to summer weather

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Post by brownie on Mon Jun 04, 2018 6:11 am

My question is what happened to spring weather?  It seems it is either in the high 80’s and oppressively humid or it is cool and dreary in the 60’s.  

I look forward to May and June as the most pleasant weather of the year, and this year has been dreadful.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:24 am

brownie wrote:My question is what happened to spring weather?  It seems it is either in the high 80’s and oppressively humid or it is cool and dreary in the 60’s.  

I look forward to May and June as the most pleasant weather of the year, and this year has been dreadful.

I agree with you!! The only positive to this whole situation is my lawn looks beautiful....I hope this is not a tell for this summer
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Post by frank 638 on Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:59 am

Anyone going to the beach today

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Post by Dtone on Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:26 am

Got down to 51 last night, pretty chilly for June within NYC. The record low was 48.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:29 pm

We MIGHT see an 80-degree day this weekend but we'll be in the 70's this week and much of next week, it appears.

Oh boy

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June 2018 Obs & Discussions Empty No pool weather. Almost woodstove weather at night.

Post by dkodgis on Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:02 pm

It was 48 last night. Maybe a bit cooler tonight where I be.
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Post by amugs on Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:17 pm

Forget about heat says the EPS latest runs through Mid June. Very comfortable temp's if it verifies. 

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June 2018 Obs & Discussions Img_2067

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:33 am

Another rainy weekend

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Post by billg315 on Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Another rainy weekend

GFS Model

Ditto

GFS Model
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:45 am

billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Another rainy weekend

GFS Model

Ditto

GFS Model

DITTO DITTO....WHAT THE HECK... HORRIBLE... Tired Mad GFS Model Brick
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:31 pm

Let’s keep in mind this time last week it loooked like a wash out for this pst weekend. 2/3rds of the weekend were sunny and beautiful in my back yard. It looks like the same will happen this upcoming weekend. Some rain may fall but I’m betting against a washout.

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Post by amugs on Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:25 pm

Saturday looks to be the wet day of the two at this time.

In the super long range EURO, JAMSTEC AND CFSv2 are saying Weak El Nino Modoki style for fall and winter. These usually mean colder than average winters and snowier. Time will tell of course.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:26 pm

amugs wrote:Saturday looks to be the wet day of the two at this time.

In the super long range EURO, JAMSTEC AND CFSv2 are saying Weak El Nino Modoki style for fall and winter. These usually mean colder than average winters and snowier. Time will tell of course.

Mugs. Did you see Tom Downs write up on Weather Bell on why he isn’t convinced yet we get to El Niño? He makes some interesting points.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by amugs on Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Saturday looks to be the wet day of the two at this time.

In the super long range EURO, JAMSTEC AND CFSv2 are saying Weak El Nino Modoki style for fall and winter. These usually mean colder than average winters and snowier. Time will tell of course.

Mugs. Did you see Tom Downs write up on Weather Bell on why he isn’t convinced yet we get to El Niño?  He makes some interesting points.
Yes I have and he does but looking at the WWB and percolating warmth of the TROP PAC in 3, 3.4 and 4 is a nice indicator and can it changel surely. JB''s research on the Bell along with Joe D. contradict Downes. Also we are leaving the Nina base state as per the GWO and AAM. It is more of a neutral state now that will decrease or cease of the easterly's and the EAMT as well as pressure difference in the IO and SON leads to this opin.  SST projections can be off of course as we saw this year. I am optimistic we see a weak Nino coming this fall and running through winter.
Another piece to the equations for us in low solar or non existent of this and Volcanic activity. 
Thanks for bringing this up and time will tell.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:01 pm

Todays 12z GFS run looks much dryer for this weekend. Remains to be seen if its a start of a trend or just a blip run.
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:12 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Todays 12z GFS run looks much dryer for this weekend. Remains to be seen if its a start of a trend or just a blip run.

This never really was supposed to be a soaker of a weekend. A big SE Canadian HP building in is deflecting the precip shield south of most of our coverage area. Central Jersey on southward have the best chance at significant rain but even that is prob only a half a days worth. Even the euro has trended south with the precip.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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