July 2018 Obs and Discussion

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:11 pm

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
444 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An area of low pressure will impact the region late Saturday into
Sunday. A period of moderate to heavy rain is becoming more likely.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are forecast with locally higher
amounts possible in any thunderstorms that develop. This could cause
flash flooding, especially if the heavier rain falls over the New
York City metro area. Additionally, some of these thunderstorms may
be strong to possibly severe, with an isolated tornado not out of the
question.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by dkodgis on Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:51 pm

A glorious sleeping night with low temp and low humidity before all the rain comes. As an aside, we lost power a few days ago in the thunderstorm. Surprising how thunderstorms bust up the trees and kill power. Storms seem to have more punch than ever. I got three inches of rain from that storm a few days ago. We needed it.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:09 am

Frank_Wx wrote:How's everyone summer been so far?

Looks like we're going to run into a period of overcast and rainy conditions later this weekend into next week :/

Fun while it lasted.

Hi, Frank, good to hear from you.Getting through the summer here.Aside from the occasional T Storm, the usual boring weather.This set up for the weekend and coming week is more exciting.Starting to see the shorter daylight hours now.Three months to first flurries! Enjoy the rest of summer everybody!
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:27 am

6z GFS really hammers the Jersey Shore and some other coastal areas. 3-4" of rain, some higher winds off the water, with a more west track as well.





850mb winds


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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by brownie on Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:43 am

It was an absolutely perfect day on the beach in Point Pleasant yesterday.  No humidity and almost cool in the shade.  I know some of you think this weather is boring, but we can’t enjoy days like that during a storm!  cat

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:58 am

NAM showing some strong winds at the coast as well. 30-35mph sustained. Euro has some gusts to 55-60mph.


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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:00 am

Wow perfect timing for the storm to happen because I am going on a fishing trip Sunday morning at 7 a.m. At Long Island at Freeport my guys are ready to go to I don't think it's going to happen

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:02 am

frank 638 wrote:Wow perfect timing for the storm to happen because I am going on a fishing trip Sunday morning at 7 a.m. At Long Island at Freeport my guys are ready to go to I don't think it's going to happen

Frank what size boat are you going to be on?

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:08 am

sroc4 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Wow perfect timing for the storm to happen because I am going on a fishing trip Sunday morning at 7 a.m. At Long Island at Freeport my guys are ready to go to I don't think it's going to happen

Frank what size boat are you going to be on?

Here is your Marine forecast: Doesn't look good


Sat Night
E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming SE 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Rain likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun
S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Dec 30th 2.0"
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:16 am

Dam I am not going then it's not worth getting sea sick thanks sroc

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:02 pm

12z GFS still bringing in very heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time. Incredible tropical moisture feed as well with PWAT values around 2.5.






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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:24 pm

frank 638 wrote:Dam I am not going then it's not worth getting sea sick thanks sroc

Brings back memories of a trip years ago a group of friends with their families took out of Atlantic Highlands.Saw a bad forecast and put on my waders.of course, I was ridiculed mercilessly on the dock, but when we got out there, the waves and wind were incredible.The boat would tilt and guys were up to their knees in water,LOL.I was the one laughing then in my waders.Family members were sitting in the cabin with a green color.Most everybody puked on that trip.Some Captains will cancel but others will go out in horrendous conditions.

This weekend storm looks more likely as of this time.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:54 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:12z GFS still bringing in very heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time. Incredible tropical moisture feed as well with PWAT values around 2.5.







NAM & RGEM not as robust, maybe 1.5 - 2" with gusty winds

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:58 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:12z GFS still bringing in very heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time. Incredible tropical moisture feed as well with PWAT values around 2.5.







NAM & RGEM not as robust, maybe 1.5 - 2" with gusty winds

Yeah, it's not very often the QPF on the GFS is higher than the NAM lol Does seem to be a little trend today of a weaker system, therefore the winds not as much of an issue as some of the previous runs

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:18 pm

Tropical torrential rains here in Myrtle Beach peeps. This is our storm brewing. Gonna bring it North but give it a day please LOL!!

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:56 pm

frank 638 wrote:Dam I am not going then it's not worth getting sea sick thanks sroc

You bet. Its prob a smart move on your part even if they do go out

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Fededle22 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:36 pm

Any chance this thing ticks east a bit and most of the moisture stays with it? I have a busy weekend planned of outdoor activities.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:31 pm

I know these are 850s but dayumm...seeing gusts maybe pushing towards 50-60mph if this plays out, in northern jersey & PA higher 80kts. Moves through quick though south jersey around 6pm moving through NYC at 10pm.

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:39 pm

Fededle22 wrote:Any chance this thing ticks east a bit and most of the moisture stays with it? I have a busy weekend planned of outdoor activities.
Doesnt look good we are less than 24 hrs away.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 6:37 am

Looks like according to NWS, this will be the last day until next Friday I will be seeing the sun.Feel sorry for those who had this week off with vacation plans.Partly cloudy now.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:06 am

docstox12 wrote:Looks like according to NWS, this will be the last day until next Friday I will be seeing the sun.Feel sorry for those who had this week off with vacation plans.Partly cloudy now.
Was thinking the same thing. Doc...and that is why we always take our 3 week boat trip the end of June into the first 2 weeks of July..usually the most stable weather time of the summer...not statically speaking...but by past experience....(this year of course we had that horrible heat...but once that spell last the weather was wonderful)


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by docstox12 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:17 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Looks like according to NWS, this will be the last day until next Friday I will be seeing the sun.Feel sorry for those who had this week off with vacation plans.Partly cloudy now.
Was thinking the same thing. Doc...and that is why we always take our 3 week boat trip the end of June into the first 2 weeks of July..usually the most stable weather time of the summer...not statically speaking...but by last experience....(this year of course we had that horrible heat...but once that spell last the weather was wonderful)

Mom, you're right, that period is usually nice and tranquil.Hope your boat trip was a lot of fun in spite of the brief hot spell.What did you think of the new Tappan Zee Bridge?I think you had said in an earlier post you were up the Hudson.

Beautiful morning here, partly cloudy, cool, nice breeze.Calm before the storm personified.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:15 am

12z NAM came in stronger, down to 997mb, hence stronger winds with this run. 35mph sustained in some places.


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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:20 am

At the South Jersey shore in Cape May County. Currently 74* and Cloudy with a light rain just starting to fall. Winds are about 15 mph with slightly higher gusts. Very breezy but nothing too dramatic yet. Radar shows heavy stuff approaching soon. Keeping an eye on possible street flooding down here which could be an issue this afternoon or evening.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:40 pm

Not a perfect Beach day I am getting stung by wind driven sand and the sound is very choppy with white caps

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