July 2018 Obs and Discussion

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Post by 1190ftalt on Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:09 pm

Thunder, lightning and pouring rain in Stillwater NJ , just started 5 minutes ago !

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:10 am

Nice rainstorm overnight, much needed! .87" here. Looks like most of the rain is south of Rt 80 today

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Post by Quietace on Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:23 am

This upcoming weekend may be interesting.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:14 am

Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.

It certainly does.  Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend. An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in. The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week. Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.  


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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
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Post by Quietace on Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.

It certainly does.  Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend.  An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in.  The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week.  Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.  

I am not sure about formation potential, however, I would agree with you that the area will feature more of an enhanced moisture feed scenario with heavy downpours and widespread significant rains. I think you may have to watch surface winds as well (nothing damaging, but gusty onshore flow). Also, guidance is leaning towards an almost stationary pattern of some sort during days 6-10, which would also feature more precip for the area. I will have to take a closer look at this in the AM.

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Post by Quietace on Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:48 pm

Also, Tstorm threat tomorrow looks promising.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:40 pm

Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.

It certainly does.  Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend.  An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in.  The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week.  Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.  

I am not sure about formation potential, however, I would agree with you that the area will feature more of an enhanced moisture feed scenario with heavy downpours and widespread significant rains. I think you may have to watch surface winds as well (nothing damaging, but gusty onshore flow). Also, guidance is leaning towards an almost stationary pattern of some sort during days 6-10, which would also feature more precip for the area. I will have to take a closer look at this in the AM.

The likelihood of a true top cyclone is admittedly low, but if you believe the Euro you can see the little dollop of energy that gets left behind from Tuesdays departing trough and subsequent frontal boundary.  The next trough tilts neg as it makes its way through the GL.  Do not be surprised later in the week if the energy Im referring to gets a yellow shade and a low prob of development on the NHC site.   There could be some rapid strengthening to LP just off the NC/SC/Ga coast.  Either way it will have a deep trop/subtrop moisture fetch and like you said gusty if not gale type winds associated with trop down pours with a neg tilted trough.  

July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gggg10

July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf_11
July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf_12
July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Ecmwf_13

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"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:13 am

SPC uptick for Tuesday's storms...

July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 9bb3b910
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:49 am

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.

It certainly does.  Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend.  An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in.  The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week.  Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.  

wait we might get hit by a tropical system or just rain associated with tropical moisture?

Thunderstorm threat todaylooks promising too. That's a lot of rain in euro for late weekend. Does sat look ok? What kind of totals over the weekend might b expected? I guess I been out the loop.

Flash flood watch today skins. I hope holds off till we get the kids on their busses.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:This upcoming weekend may be interesting.

It certainly does.  Looks like there will be some left over energy sitting off the SE coast following the passing of the front Tuesday that possibly spins up as a subtrop or trop system as we head into the weekend.  An approaching long wave trough, neg tilted if your the euro, draws it in.  The approaching trough and building W Atl ridge has the EC sandwiched in the middle tapping into a deep trop/sub trop moisture fetch regardless for the weekend into next week.  Parts of the area could get quite a bit of rain.  

wait we might get hit by a tropical system or just rain associated with tropical moisture?

Thunderstorm threat todaylooks promising too. That's a lot of rain in euro for late weekend. Does sat look ok? What kind of totals over the weekend might b expected? I guess I been out the loop.

Flash flood watch today skins. I hope holds off till we get the kids on their busses.

Most likely a system that is tapped into tropical moisture, but there is a slim chance of trop or subtropical development.  I don't actually think there will be enough time for it to develop true trop characteristics before the approaching trough phases with it and keeps it "cold core" therefore by definition it isn't a trop. system.  That said the moisture feeding into it will originate from the deep subtropics, GOM so will be moisture laden.  

See below maps:  surface, 500mb, 250mb.  As you can see below by Friday, after the front that we will experience today passes, there is leftover energy sitting off the NC/SC coast at 500mb (yellow map). There is a weak surface low sitting along the coast as a result. Notice the 250mb. The arrows indicate decent outflow or upper air divergence which enhances rising air at the lower levels. as this entire feature drifts N/NE over water the water is warm enough, although not boiling by any means, to support enhancement of LP deepening. The enhanced lifting mechanisms will support thunderstorm development which could cause feedback and a warm core development. The question is how much can it deepen before it begins to interact with the approaching trough. Once that happens any warm core characteristics will quickly transitions to cold core as the trough phases with the system. Again the chances are slim for this to happen, because I don't believe there will be enough time and the SST are not quite warm enough for rapid intensification, but either way the phasing will bring very heavy rainfall and very strong gale force winds into the region for late weekend. Im almost certain of that. My initial call will be by Thursday or Friday we will see some color on the NHC site for "a small chance to develop into a trop system.


July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Surfac10
July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 500mb_12
July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 250mb_10


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:57 am

Yep its there.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:59 am

Cool thanks...I just modified my post to include some discussion...see above

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:06 am

I'm all for a good non extreme rain and some wind storm. Beats this boring weather. What's the timeframe? Will sat into Sunday midday be okay?
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:04 am

jmanley32 wrote:I'm all for a good non extreme rain and some wind storm. Beats this boring weather. What's the timeframe? Will sat into Sunday midday be okay?
Hope it holds off till Sunday night. Too many weekends this past spring have been washed out already.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:57 am

Its been so dry here not sure bout over there.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:28 pm

July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 Gfs_na11Interesting run with 12z GFS run. Shows a more consolidated/stronger tropical low development with direct impacts over our region.
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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:23 pm

July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 5bbc7410
Storm in coming to Ft Lee, picture from 24 th floor looking west to Teterboro Airport ! See the rain line about 1 /2 mile !July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 5bbc7410

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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:34 pm

Now strong winds and just a big lightning !July 2018 Obs and Discussion - Page 3 B8572b10

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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:34 pm

Radar is lighting up. I spy a 'training' situation setting up over NYC/Westchester...

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:54 pm

Cmc has a 1003mb tropical storm hitting the area. Hrs has a lp as does euro of course cc always overdoes lp.
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Post by frank 638 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:24 pm

Heavy wind-driven rain at lga all flights are grounded for now

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:56 pm

frank 638 wrote:Heavy wind-driven rain at lga all flights are grounded for now
wasn't that bad certainly not like the ones in may.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:53 pm

Absolutely crazy here approaching 3 inches of rain flash flood warning and still coming down
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Post by Vinnydula on Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:24 pm

Three lines of storm so far looks like another is coming in
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:41 pm

Yeah, actually did not realize it was more than one line, just thought it was a very long back end. Yes theres another line NW of here but it will probably die out before reaching here, the temp has dropped significantly and instability is pretty low if any at all.

Speaking of the possible system this weekend 18z GFS has a fully close LP and it tries to develop before turning into the area, this should be interesting to watch if it happens.
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