July 2018 Obs and Discussion

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:56 pm

12z GFS run, has a definite closed clow, but is it a TS? The pressure is just enough to be a low end TS verbatim, but as sroc said probably will become cold core, still def interesting. Makes a hook right into NYC. At that time stamp I will be finishing up seeing Jeff Dunham at Mohegan Sun in CT (which a apocalyse could be going on outside and you wouldn't know it), I am therefore hoping if anything good happens its later into Sunday or Monday.



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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Jul 18, 2018 8:20 am

.84" of rain and some strong winds yesterday, no damage that I've heard about, just fun to watch it blow through. Not liking the forecast for next week, looks wet. We have our ambulance carnival next week, Tuesday-Saturday Shocked

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:20 am

NYC had major flooding and a funnel cloud that did not touch down.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:26 pm

I had over 5 inches here
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:24 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I had over 5 inches here
wow...we had an inch we got just as the clouds started rolling in..glad we made it before the storm hit..would have dropped dead if I saw a funnel cloud while on the boat..lol
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:05 am

This weekends system will likely be nothing more than a summer Nor Easter type conditions. The eastern side of the LP center could experience gale force winds and maybe the rare stronger gusts, but as of now Im not too sure about anything worse than that. Jon I think we should keep discussion in here for now unless this becomes a named storm which it likely will not.

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:23 am

sroc4 wrote:This weekends system will likely be nothing more than a summer Nor Easter type conditions.  The eastern side of the LP center could experience gale force winds and maybe the rare stronger gusts, but as of now Im not too sure about anything worse than that.   Jon I think we should keep discussion in here for now unless this becomes a named storm which it likely will not.  
ok no problem ho hum boring weather here it comes. lol
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:26 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:This weekends system will likely be nothing more than a summer Nor Easter type conditions.  The eastern side of the LP center could experience gale force winds and maybe the rare stronger gusts, but as of now Im not too sure about anything worse than that.   Jon I think we should keep discussion in here for now unless this becomes a named storm which it likely will not.  
ok no problem ho hum boring weather here it comes. lol

agreed my friend

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:40 am

One thing I will say when looking at the NAM and RGEM, ie: short range hi res models, is they may be hinting at a more dynamic system.  It still wont change the big picture idea, but like we saw all winter some of the more dynamic systems needed to be in close for the sr models to see the true details of the system.  We shall see.  Weather will still be unsettled most if not all of next week up and down the EC.  While not every location will see rain every day, there will be chances of rain almost every day next week.  With a moist unsettled airmass in place any trigger will incite the threat of rain and or thunder storms.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:58 am

sroc4 wrote:One thing I will say when looking at the NAM and RGEM, ie: short range hi res models, is they may be hinting at a more dynamic system.  It still wont change the big picture idea, but like we saw all winter some of the more dynamic systems needed to be in close for the sr models to see the true details of the system.  We shall see.  Weather will still be unsettled most if not all of next week up and down the EC.  While not every location will see rain every day, there will be chances of rain almost every day next week.  With a moist unsettled airmass in place any trigger will incite the threat of rain and or thunder storms.

Sometimes those meso models sniff it out
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:22 am

If we get a nhc spot marked on the off chance put that here?
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:26 am

How's everyone summer been so far?

Looks like we're going to run into a period of overcast and rainy conditions later this weekend into next week :/

Fun while it lasted.

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:How's everyone summer been so far?

Looks like we're going to run into a period of overcast and rainy conditions later this weekend into next week :/

Fun while it lasted.

Het Frank summers been great I had a great once in lifetime experience chasing supercells out in the high plains
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:05 am

Hey Frank my summer is going great so far just that it's been so hot where I'm working at. Next month I'm going to Aruba for one week I cannot wait I am staying at the Riu Palace of Aruba you got to check that place out it's very nice all-inclusive drinks food and Paradise

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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:15 pm


Post by skinsfan1177 Today at 12:12 pm

Wow






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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:30 pm

3km nam at hr 60 has 850 mb winds at 64kts and very strong convection with a def spin to it
We will see.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:31 pm

18z 3KM nam creams PA with tons of rain NYC surrounding areas and east see almost nothing. Gores right up the Chesapeake like a magnet to the little water there is, 850mb winds are pretty impressive for a weak system too showing some areas with 64kt winds (yes I know this is not surface).  It stays well west pretty much over land. GFS has it a bit more over the water giving a heavy strip of 2-3 inches of rain for CT.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:45 pm

Recent posts from JB, he seems to feel it will be TS conditions puts it at 70%, probably no name.



JB tweet: from Monday on http://weatherbell.com why before the what on July gale on weekend, Latest NAM for Sat evening Euro depression Probability now over 90%, TS 70% (behind paywall) Will likely never get a name, but for several hours will seem like TS where it hits Sat night

Latest tweet: (says 1960 Brenda analog? Baroclinic process set off feature Friday, it feeds back and named or not should produce several hours of tropical storm conditions near and east of the path which should ride the coast Delmarva to Long Island Sat night, No surprise, Brenda 1960 analog
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:08 pm

There is our storm building over the SE coast in the distance as I sit on the beach in Myrtle Beach, SC flying in manana.


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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:41 pm

amugs wrote:There is our storm building over the SE coast in the distance as I sit on the beach in Myrtle Beach, SC flying in manana.


LOVE IT MUGSY!

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by sroc4 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Recent posts from JB, he seems to feel it will be TS conditions puts it at 70%, probably no name.



JB tweet: from Monday on http://weatherbell.com  why before the what on July gale on weekend,  Latest NAM for Sat evening   Euro depression Probability now over  90%, TS 70% (behind paywall)  Will likely never get a name, but for several hours will seem like TS where it hits Sat night

Latest tweet: (says 1960 Brenda analog? Baroclinic process set off feature Friday, it feeds back and named or not should produce several hours of tropical storm conditions near and east of the path which should ride the coast Delmarva to Long Island Sat night, No surprise,  Brenda 1960 analog

You getting giggidy?? I am. Its prob not going to quite live up to the hype for most but it's something fun to track.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:47 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Recent posts from JB, he seems to feel it will be TS conditions puts it at 70%, probably no name.



JB tweet: from Monday on http://weatherbell.com  why before the what on July gale on weekend,  Latest NAM for Sat evening   Euro depression Probability now over  90%, TS 70% (behind paywall)  Will likely never get a name, but for several hours will seem like TS where it hits Sat night

Latest tweet: (says 1960 Brenda analog? Baroclinic process set off feature Friday, it feeds back and named or not should produce several hours of tropical storm conditions near and east of the path which should ride the coast Delmarva to Long Island Sat night, No surprise,  Brenda 1960 analog

You getting giggidy??  I am.  Its prob not going to quite live up to the hype for most but it's something fun to track.  
Yeah, kinda, its not going to be a epic storm by any means probably. Still interesting to track and I love seeing that spin form even if it is just a LP. you know your a weather geek if you considering canceling your plans to see Jeff Dunham (no charge they are free tickets) and a comped Sat at the casino in CT to be able to watch the weather LOL, eastern CT might actually get buffeted pretty good though so maybe i should go and go down to New London at night if anythings going on, I dunno.  Ahh the decisions of a weather nut.  But it appears to def be timed around late sat night into sunday then lingering rains all week as frank said.  barring any major changes of course. Maybe it stalls grows to a Cat 5 offshore of NYC and never moves anywhere, that would be terrible.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:There is our storm building over the SE coast in the distance as I sit on the beach in Myrtle Beach, SC flying in manana.


LOVE IT MUGSY!
How do you know maybe that could is something else, who made you mr know it all LOL, JK looks nice.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:53 pm

sroc, being its likely not going to be a tropical system, do you see the NHC putting up a spot? I would have thought by now they would, but the 5 day is clear so I am guessing they are considiering it like most a nor easter like system. But it certainly looks on the models like a tropical LP.
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Re: July 2018 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:28 pm

OY, we have our carnival next week, Tues- Sat. Hopefully the rain will come during the day leaving nights clear for zeppoles and rides!

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