2018 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:39 pm

Euro coming in hot. Gordon's remnants vitally important to pumping the ridge off the coast to trap Florence beneath it and force west.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:45 pm

OH MAN this is not good and dont give me the compact bs - this would flood the NJ coastline up the yin yang with a stout HP to the north.


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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:52 pm

MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!


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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:56 pm

She heads out misses the area directly. But a turn out is not definite imo.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:59 pm

amugs wrote:MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

batter beaches yes but no real wind or rain impacts if she stays there. I also agree mugs she will expand greatly.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:04 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:MOTHER OF MARY - SHE STALLS OFF DELMARVA!!

batter beaches yes but no real wind or rain impacts if she stays there. I also agree mugs she will expand greatly.

JMAN,
No real impacts - where IMBY?? This is big time hcane we are talking about here that will in this scenario speaking cause major flooding - look at the pattern not just the storm - a stout HP over head gives you an easterly flow with a massive plunger in the ocean piling up water hours before it comes into the area = bad sitch. Then it stalls to our south off Ocean City - you dont think a CAT 2 at that latitude will cause damage possibly major to the coastal sections along NJ up to LI??

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:11 pm

18z Hurricane models


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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:13 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.

Lol! I just spit out my water. Welp, I dunno. All these anomalous events. And clearly the planet IS getting hotter. But I digress as this is now borderline banter.

Let's see if Florence is another breaker of the mold!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:15 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models


Umm, that cluster of beelines headed toward NJ makes me gulp. Can someone explain the hurricane model reliability vs. the globals?
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:16 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student. There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin. That is all.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:17 pm

Maybe a new thread for Florence by one of the admins/Advanced forecasters?

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:20 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models


Umm, that cluster of beelines headed toward NJ makes me gulp. Can someone explain the hurricane model reliability vs. the globals?

Yeah, it's a very similar path that the GFS takes. The hurricane models take it west in the short term, but none of them really have that south movement and loss of latitude suggested by the CMC and to some extent the EURO

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:21 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Generally I enjoy any links you or anyone else posts, as they help to educate me regarding the extreme weather that so fascinates me. Must say, however, that this particular one may have actually made me dumber. Which is not easy.

Lol! I just spit out my water. Welp, I dunno. All these anomalous events. And clearly the planet IS getting hotter. But I digress as this is now borderline banter.

Let's see if Florence is another breaker of the mold!

Indeed, it is very interesting at this juncture. But with this much time left, it seems that inevitably something comes in to gum up the works that no one was expecting. In the post-mortem people are always able to explain what happened and why. It's trying to see it before it happens that is the problem.

I highly recommend you read www.wattsupwiththat.com. Good info. Banter now over.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student.  There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin.  That is all.  

Would you say the strength of the ridge being depicted by models around the time Florence is near would be considered "out of the ordinary"?
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:31 pm

Mugs I meant to any areas not along the coast. Like I would not see any real impacts nor would anywhere not on immediate coast but a tiny jog towards coast more would be bad for everyone. Gfs was bad for everyone.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:45 pm



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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:46 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z Hurricane models

those are scarily similar at this far out and def those o retaking a b line here yikes. But as some feel odds are not really there so something will prolly get in her way. We will see no more hype or wows from me.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:47 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:

keep going she makes landfall on long island. In gfs scenario everyone even away from coast has bad impacts.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:51 pm

12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so... Shocked

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Vinnydula on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:55 pm

I'm happy to be back. Missed you guys!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:59 pm

Oh boy EPS  with a cluster of westward members. 
Lots if time still with many players on this field again that are in the PAC. Lots of downstream effects at play here.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:39 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Im not going to get into this in this thread, but I will say this is written with the apparent knowledge of a middle school student.  There is so much wrong with the information I dont know where to begin.  That is all.  

Would you say the strength of the ridge being depicted by models around the time Florence is near would be considered "out of the ordinary"?

Anomalously strong sure as its being modeled, but out of the ordinary? What do we really mena by this statement. I mean we have a very warm water anomaly(although not unprecedented warm), off the EC in a position to support a strong ridge. You also have a tropical storm simultaneously merging with a frontal boundary cutting to our west releasing latent heat that is aiding in pumping the ridge back up not unlike we would see if we had a strong GLC in the winter. IF this system where to make its way all the way to the coast it wouldn't an unprecedented track.

Here are 1903, 1933, and 1936. BTW all before the industrial revolution and this "stuff" about global warming





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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:40 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so...  Shocked

that's crazy and a pretty good consensus this far our. Still doesn't have intensity right but better than last few. When can they send a recon? We need that badly. Can they send one from Bermuda? But after that she's go have be pretty close to the USA to go out which is concerning.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:42 pm

Vagabond hurricane lol
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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