2018 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by hyde345 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

I guess he will lean towards a landfall solution when the 00Z comes further west.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:33 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge  that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.
I agree 100%. That ridge means business. My current thinking is Florence will make it just offshore the coastline before feeling the effects of the ridge and start to meander. That would be a bad thing with the circulation remaining in that bathwater. The big question that remains is where on the coastline does this occur the outer banks, delmarva, or long Island? Time will tell.

So  you think she never has any diurect impacts over land? basically a beach crusher, rain and wind not a issue, if so its not a concern here but i will worry for those living on the water along coast.
I never said that. How about a cat 3 sitting 50 miles off Sandy Hook N.J? You'll feel it. An extreme example but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities with a pig ridge like that.
Ahh, thought you meant like 300-400 miles offshore, GFS was pretty far offshore, though the run 06z 12z? that had a direct landfall on LI was the craziest I have seen yet. 50 miles offshore of sandy hook, that would be a sight, and imagine if she stalled for like a day, that would be crazy, and I am assuming she is going to expand a great amount so wind field will be much much bigger, the area of hurricane winds right now is like a sliver.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:18 pm

Where is bernie, periscope that he said NYC landfall on the GFS and then turned the camera and said dont panic, that sounds funny I wanna see it but his last 2 do not cover that GFS run.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:42 pm

18z GEFS still OTS, but further west than 12z




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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:44 pm

12zvs18z

Further west


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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:44 pm

I actually kinda like bastardi's crayon drawing of his idea for florence except IMO will be a cat 3 as it approaches EC or even stays one.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:44 pm

The latest from the NHC



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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:48 pm

Tropical Storm Florence now, winds at 70 mph

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:48 pm

0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ




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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:51 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ



Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, and if extrapolated out would go right into NYC looks like and north doesnt appear to drive at all east, barely offshore up the coast IMO would be a worst case or near worst case with slower weakening and major impacts from all aspects. Long way to go, 00z GFS is running now. Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now per nhc.  Now not a major until Tuesday.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ



Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, would it continue north from there on that run? Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now.  Now not a major until Tuesday.

Hard to tell if it would go north or east, but I think it would get a little further north. Definitely a flooding issue with a Cat 2 or so in that position.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:03 am

At hr 96, GFS another tick south, even from 18z, strong ridge building in already, again would think this comes close to land, but we'll see. Didn't happen at 18z

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:04 am

Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ



Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, would it continue north from there on that run? Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now.  Now not a major until Tuesday.

Hard to tell if it would go north or east, but I think it would get a little further north. Definitely a flooding issue with a Cat 2 or so in that position.
From last frame looks like it just continues to use the coast line as a track, but is this model to even be taken at all seriously, I mean I guess its about as plausible as the others ATM.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:12 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON has landfall in NC and rides the edge of the coast up toward NJ



Thats very bad, hope thats not too intense a word, would it continue north from there on that run? Seems like intensity has been drawn out weaker for longer now.  Now not a major until Tuesday.

Hard to tell if it would go north or east, but I think it would get a little further north. Definitely a flooding issue with a Cat 2 or so in that position.
From last frame looks like it just continues to use the coast line as a track, but is this model to even be taken at all seriously, I mean I guess its about as plausible as the others ATM.

Well it definitely have support from the CMC, has landfall in the same spot lol

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:14 am

GFS coming in closer to the coast so far at hr 138, this makes more sense given the ridge

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:24 am

GFS still insists on keeping this storm offshore. Still have a hard time believing a ridge that strong doesn't force that more west. I still think the GFS is overdoing the intensity to an extent that's allowing it to go into the ridge and stay further east, I'll guess we'll see

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:24 am

actually its about the same bit further south and it looks to recurve very similar, i def do not think this is anywhere near final solution, we had a hit on NYC, we had ones much further east, there are prolly many other outcomes in the next several days as we know.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:16 am

Interesting euro Cmc and icon art make a landfall nc sc border and euro goes inland dissipates. Looks like 06z hrs is staying way south too. Maybe this storm will onlybeffect the South. But not buying one run as any kind of trend.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:21 am

jmanley32 wrote:Interesting euro Cmc and icon art make a landfall nc sc border and euro goes inland dissipates. Looks like 06z hrs is staying way south too. Maybe this storm will onlybeffect the South. But not buying one run as any kind of trend.
Wow. The 6z GFS crushes the outer banks. You would think with that ridge Flo will ride up the coastline this run.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:22 am

O6 gfs is bad hr. 156 landfall in Virginia and it seems they have all evened out on intensity too kik strong cat 2.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:23 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Interesting euro Cmc and icon art make a landfall nc sc border and euro goes inland dissipates. Looks like 06z hrs is staying way south too. Maybe this storm will onlybeffect the South. But not buying one run as any kind of trend.
Wow. The 6z GFS crushes the outer banks. You would think with that ridge Flo will ride up the coastline this run.
she does go up the coast a bit waiting see rest run.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:25 am

972mb headed up Chesapeake nj starting get big impacts lets see if she holds on. Interesting all models now no recurve and a nc or so landfall. Notice Bermuda is getting on Noreen side of nhc cone so its def staying way south.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:29 am

Not good at all we get direct cat 1 or strong ts impacts as she crosses jersey toward NYC at he 180. Major rain flooding and wind. Not sure how beaches effected from that direction.


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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:29 am

That's a nasty run for the metro area. Center goes over Philly and we end up in the right quadrant of the storm.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:31 am

7 to 10 inches rain hurricane force winds prolly cat 1 or strong ts for metro. Hey ill take a day off work lol schools would def be closed. But its just one run models are far from b done flip flopping I'm sure
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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