2018 Hurricane Season

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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:02 pm

Michael is now a CAT 3; just a devastating storm headed for the FL panhandle.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:02 pm

Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.

Oh shit Ryan. What city are you located at? Stay safe

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.

Oh shit Ryan. What city are you located at?  Stay safe
Tallahassee ..
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:01 pm

You know? Call me crazy, but I don’t think I buy intensification through landfall. In fact, I can see a plateauing and then start of a decay coming into landfall and my reason is the following:

If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:07 pm

143 mph surface reading from a recent dropsonde. This may be a cat 4 soon

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:You know? Call me crazy, but I don’t think I buy intensification through landfall. In fact, I can see a plateauing and then start of a decay coming into landfall and my reason is the following:

If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other.

Looks pretty damn healthy on Infrared right now and pressure continues to lower. I wouldn't be surprised if this makes it to Cat 4 and even if it plateaus it will still be devastating with wind and storm surge.
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:11 pm

My boy Mike is a CAT 4 minimal at this point with the latest extrapolated information from my little eye. God help those is his way all the way through the Carolinas.
The storm surge is going to be historical along teh Big Bend Coast unlike Flo - teh shallow shelf there is going to exasperate this affect I hate to say he will be destructive if not devastating to the NE quadrant my lord he is angry!!

951 mb sonde splash with 19 kt sfc winds. Probably 949 mb now.
2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 15 Sfwsf.PNG.ba471161699eeb68e1432210c8d1c908
SICK!!!

Ryan be safe kid.

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Post by Quietace on Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:51 pm

Thanks, everyone.

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:59 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.

Oh shit Ryan. What city are you located at?  Stay safe
Tallahassee ..


Damn. You are def in a tough spot. If not a direct hit you will likely be on the east side. Any talk about evacuation where you are? Seriously stay safe and update the board when you can after the fact. Good luck

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:32 pm


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:59 pm

ace, stay safe!! keep us posted.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:12 am

CATEGORY F*ING 4 & strengthening!
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:50 am

SoulSingMG wrote: CATEGORY F*ING 4 & strengthening!
OMG HOW HORRIBLE!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:35 am

Just heard 938 mb
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:00 am

Michael is going for cat 5 imo. Ray I think you were wrong on this one and I wish u weren't. Ts winds already well onshore landfall is not far away. Crazy. I can't say I hope it won't be bad cuz it will so I will say I hope everyone evacuated cuz there's really no time left. Wow several days ago a meer ts to this monster.
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Post by Radz on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:30 am

Wow, he's a monster... bad news for those in his path, Levi Cowan is in Tallahassee as well i think, he mentioned prepping and lack of updates...
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Post by Radz on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:36 am

Pin hole eye seems a bit obscured in last few frames of imagery...
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:36 am

I have rarely if ever seen such a tiny eye in such a big hurricane. Recon is finding steadily dropping pressure down to 937mb on special update on nhc. The 2 to 4inches of rain also jogged much further north now giving parts of the area a flooding rain. If he hugs the northern part of the cone we will see a ton of rain. Not sure if winds will be a factor prolly not but still he is go pass just far enough south looks like. Some euro ensembles have him still sub 960mb coming off the coast that's impressive after being over land so long.
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Post by Radz on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:47 am

Latest radar starting to show the jog north north-east i believe as well...
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:49 am

On a side note I read Linda is now the longest living named storm in the Atlantic. I dunno if its the first but its alsoheaded home to Africa lol. Relocated to the north.
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Post by hyde345 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:52 am

Michael now down to 933mb and max winds at 145. Damn.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:53 am

Max sustained winds now up to 145 MPh...don't be surprised to see a Cat 5 landfall after noon. pale
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:44 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Max sustained winds now up to 145 MPh...don't be surprised to see a Cat 5 landfall after noon. pale
just nuts these storms have defied all odds.
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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:43 am

From a pro Met on Tweeter:

We now have a pressure, 926, that’s 12mb stronger than any October hurricane to make landfall, ever recorded

CAT 5 status Pressure wise - jesus the Storm Surge maybe 30' plus with those shallow waters once he comes onto land.
2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 15 DpJoCOLXgAArJD7

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:13 am

amugs wrote:From a pro Met on Tweeter:

We now have a pressure, 926, that’s 12mb stronger than any October hurricane to make landfall, ever recorded

CAT 5 status Pressure wise - jesus the Storm Surge maybe 30' plus with those shallow waters once he comes onto land.
2018 Hurricane Season  - Page 15 DpJoCOLXgAArJD7

that is just insanity..I just heard that the eye wall size is increasing, but what would that really do?
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