2018 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Angela0621 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:22 am

Hi all, my son has reservations to fly to Charleston SC tonight at midnight for the weekend. He wants to cancel but his gf is saying its not a big deal. Just looking for some feedback or thoughts on travel and weather in general for charleston for this evening into the next 2 days. Thanks
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by rb924119 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:30 am

Yeah, unfortunately my earlier hypothesis regarding the alteration of the environmental low-level pressure anomalies working to destructively interfere with the strengthening process appears off course, and this storm is gonna barrel in at maximum intensity. I hope these people are ok in the end.

While it’s a great meteorological phenomenon to observe and learning experience for me, it’s a worst nightmare for everybody in its path. Personal gains aside, I was really hoping the idea of decreasing in intensity would have merit.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:50 am

For what it's worth, 12z NAM is further north and brings heavy rain bands over CNJ. 4-5" of rain in some places.




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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:51 am

Eyewall growing I think could mean more intensification? I say in 10 min 11am is a cat 5 or very close Jesus 926mb. Goshhelp all down there.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:53 am

Angela0621 wrote:Hi all, my son has reservations to fly to Charleston SC tonight at midnight for the weekend.  He wants to cancel but his gf is saying its not a big deal.  Just looking for some feedback or thoughts on travel and weather in general for charleston for this evening into the next 2 days. Thanks
its going to be bad there but not like Florida. By midnight he could be approaching sc so there may even b cancellations.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:00 am

Sanchize06 wrote:For what it's worth, 12z NAM is further north and brings heavy rain bands over CNJ. 4-5" of rain in some places.




thanks for the information. I am worried my husband is supposed to fly in to Newark from Ca tom night landing around 11 pm
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:27 am

Looks like recon has found surface pressure as low as 919mb

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:34 am

Offically 923mb, winds up to 150 mph

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:37 am

Sanchize06 wrote:Offically 923mb, winds up to 150 mph
Jesus christ. Pray for anyone in its path.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:40 am

Insane nearly at landfall lets hope this is the top. But gusts will be into 170s prolly that's go cause a ton of destruction not to mention the water impacts. The cone nudged north a tad once exiting the coast. We will see if wpc ups rains for us at all. Pray for Florida.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:55 am

150 mph



000
WTNT64 KNHC 101528
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph
(101 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


Like I sai dyestewrday the low shelf there will casue 20-30' surge in places maybe higher - th elast Hcane to have lower perssure before landfall.............Katrina

Jesus H Christ tareas will be wiped out - he is still strengthening - the mesovortices in teh and around teh eyewall have stopped but the eye is growing showing the strengthening

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:04 pm

920 NOW - WTF 918 Dropsound
Extrapolated MSLP has fallen below 920 hPa in #Michael following yet another mesovort merger in the eyewall of the storm, which is what you'd expect given my earlier tweets. Notice the wave #4 mesovort structure has eroded in the last several frames in concert w/ the MSLP falls.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:34 pm



Catastrophic damage in this area expected....EF3 damage, hundreds of miles wide... and massive storm surge on this intense NE corridor..200mph winds aloft, mixing down at landfall...I won’t be shocked to 160+ landfall winds at some point

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:42 pm

Hearing gust of 175mph
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:00 pm

Omg 919mb!! Scott 901mb wasn't that far off!!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:17 pm

Landfall Mexico beach is getting devastated from reports

919mb

150 mph winds -

CAT 4

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:17 pm

HWRF and HMON lead teh way on teh intensity

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:34 pm

12z HMON. Looks like models coming a little further north at 12z. Jersey Shore and Eastern LI should still be paying attention for some heavy rainfall totals.


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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:40 pm

Winds up to 155mph

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:47 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Winds up to 155mph
Michael's more or less a CAT 5 storm. I'm sure when all is said and done the NHC will make it official.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:24 pm

NHC will reanalyze this and up him to CAT 5 I'm pressure and winds meet this criteria.
SNJ needs to watch out cause he may cause affects tomorrow night. He isn't slowing down pressure wise even after landfalk, this is remarkable.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:31 pm

FLASH FLOOD WATCH just issued area-wide for NYC Metro ahead of intense cold front + tropical moisture from Michael.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:00 pm

Video of stadium effect from inside eye of hurricane.

Words fail me.

https://www.facebook.com/Stefan1126/videos/10156491591296138/
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:07 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:FLASH FLOOD WATCH just issued area-wide for NYC Metro ahead of intense cold front + tropical moisture from Michael.
don't be surprised to see stronger effects up here than expected. Especially rain wise. Also remember banding has a lot tornados potential.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:13 pm

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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