August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Page 1 of 7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Go down

August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:38 am

We're in our final month of Meteorological summer. Can you believe it? September is 31 days away.



The summer to this point has featured both abnormally hot temperatures and periods running well below normal. So, our overall temps have been near average which some places running slightly above average. Based off what I am seeing in August it looks like this summer will finish with above normal temperatures.



The GEFS are showing a heat wave starting around August 4th. There may be a slight break August 7th but I think the country gets flooded with very hot temps beginning around August 12th or so. Also, Hurricane Season - which began in June - should begin heating up too. Colorado State University, which has a track record of accurately calling how many named storms will form in the upcoming hurricane season, is predicting 14 named storms this year.

I actually think our area is more susceptible to a storm this year. Based off what I am seeing with the sea surface temps it seems storms will want to take a track up the coast, but they may also form near the coast which would make them weak tropical storms or category 1 types. We shall see!

Ciao a tutti!

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18266
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:55 pm

Hey Frank good to see ya around. Been boring lets get some excitement, a nice high end TS or cat 1 will be fun, nothing catestrophic, and I know there are those on here who will say how could u wish a hurricane and those like syo and others that like extreme non-winter weather too. As I say every year I want no harm to come to anyone, losing some trees and or power is not the end of the world. Def do without the flooding though. As frank says we will see, I am not sure we see much until the end of august and into sept oct. personally.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by dkodgis on Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:11 am

It's been hotter, wetter. Now for the winter, let's hope snowier.
avatar
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 635
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:40 pm

dkodgis wrote:It's been hotter, wetter. Now for the winter, let's hope snowier.
I agree with you I cannot wait till it's over I cannot stand the heat and humidity

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1737
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 35
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:13 pm

Over an inch of rain so far today, starting to feel moldy! No

_________________
Janet


Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3710
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 56
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:51 pm

Jeeze, this just tomorrow night through sat evening, guess Sat is a deluge washout...that stinks.



Frank may be right, the way this tropical coveyor belt of precip has been going for like 2 or more weeks now any tropical systems on that track probably do pose a actual real threat to the area, also spinups like frank said offshore of carolinas are possible with any trailing front. Something tells me we will have a TS maybe a hurricane impact this year, direct or indirect.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:54 pm

NAM even more bullish, it appears at the tail end of the rain a small LP 1015mb forms over VA over land and just crushes us with rain.



Holy snikeys as mugs would say!! Whats up with this tiny LP coming out of nowhere?  Is it for real? Frank, scott?  Surprised no one is talking as 3-5 inches in one day is go  cause ALOT of problems to already saturated ground and rivers. This lasts at a tourential rate for about 6 hrs so thats nuts.



Lays down almost 10 inches of rain in southern CT in a matter of hours....OMG





Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:59 pm

Ha it actually intensifies into what looks like a TD over LI sound and down to 1008mb after passing cape cod to the north, you cant make this up. You can actually see the circular nature of the rain bands in the 3km, now its probably overdone like it is with snow often but still, we could be in for quite a rain storm.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:04 pm

Jesus H, it starts hr 45 and is done hr 51!!!
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:29 pm

Tornado warning for whitestorne headed into queens!!
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:51 pm

Yes tornado warning bronx queens Nassau. Intense downpour and lightning here. Reports of possible damage in area around Queens side of Whitestone Bridge.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1685
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:18 pm

Dtone wrote:Yes tornado warning bronx queens Nassau. Intense downpour and lightning here. Reports of possible damage in area around Queens side of Whitestone Bridge.
That was unexpected. We shall see what these future tropical upsourges conditinue to bring and if what I posted above actually pans out.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:14 am

Good Grief, when will this cloudy, muggy ,hot weather ever end? Can't remember a summer this bad.Heavy T Storm last night, lots of lightening and thunder.Hard to think we have a whole month of August to get through.Hoping for one of those mid-August cool nights where temps dip to near 50.
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6171
Reputation : 95
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 67
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:27 am

And September doc and even sometimes October is hot. As long as we have this tropical moisture feed its not gonna end and as frank said at least 2 heat waves coming up glad I start my vacation on 15th.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15129
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:32 am

jmanley32 wrote:And September doc and even sometimes October is hot. As long as we have this tropical moisture feed its not gonna end and as frank said at least 2 heat waves coming up glad I start my vacation on 15th.

Absolutely correct Jman.How many times I remember sweltering in non air conditioned classrooms in the 1950's and 1960's in September.Then the warm spells in October and even November come.Let's hope we get cooler weather for September and October.Enjoy vaca!
avatar
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6171
Reputation : 95
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 67
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:58 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Dtone wrote:Yes tornado warning bronx queens Nassau. Intense downpour and lightning here. Reports of possible damage in area around Queens side of Whitestone Bridge.
That was unexpected.  We shall see what these future tropical upsourges conditinue to bring and if what I posted above actually pans out.


Its confirmed, EF0 Tornado in College Point, Queens moving eastward toward the Whitestone

A TORNADO RATED AS EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE, WITH
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 70 TO 85 MPH, TOUCHED DOWN NEAR SAINT FIDELIS
CATHOLIC CHURCH IN COLLEGE POINT, KNOCKING DOWN NUMEROUS TREES AND
POWER LINES AND PEELING SIDING OFF HOUSES ALONG A PATH ABOUT 3/4
OF A MILE LONG AND 100 YARDS WIDE. THE TORNADO STRENGTHENED AS IT
MOVED TOWARD POWELL'S COVE PARK, WHERE AT LEAST 50 TREES WHERE
DOWNED IN A NARROW, CONVERGENT PATTERN HIGHLY INDICATIVE OF A
TORNADO. THE TORNADO BRIEFLY MOVED ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST
SHORELINE OF POWELL'S COVE, AND THEN DISSIPATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN END OF THE PARK JUST BEFORE REACHING 138TH STREET.
ADDITIONAL STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE OCCURRED FROM THAT POINT
EASTWARD TO THE FRANCIS LEWIS PARK NEAR THE WHITESTONE BRIDGE.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1685
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:05 pm

This looks fun


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18266
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:This looks fun


INCOMING!! Lol. It has gotten very dark here, and I think I hear rumbles of thunder just off in the distance.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2219
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:09 pm

Some views as the storms rolled in. Now in heavy rain with frequent thunder and lightning.


avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2219
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:07 pm

National Weather Service has confirmed a tornado did touchdown in College Point Queens an ef-0 tornado with winds 75 to 95 miles per hour. It's crazy how I'm coming home from work in Queens it was torrential downpours the minute I crossed over the bridge and I got into the Bronx it was nothing but a shower

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1737
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 35
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:00 pm

1.5" rain yesterday, 1" today... and more coming tonight. Hopefully it will clear out for the Cyclones game tomorrow night!

_________________
Janet


Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3710
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 56
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:36 am

Torrential rain here in Somerville this morning. Will be over 2” easily I think when it’s done. One inch fell in an hour according to NWS. My sump pump has been running on almost a continuous cycle for the past two hours. Street corners look like small lakes.
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2219
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:32 am

Just had a downpour

Feels like Florida outside here in NYC
avatar
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2018
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 30
Location : Brooklyn, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:45 am

1.64" today, brooks over the banks, minor flooding.... so wet already this month!

_________________
Janet


Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"

Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3710
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 56
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:02 pm

P now that the rain is over it's clearing up it just means a lot more worse with the Sun out is so humid and nasty I cannot wait till Summer's over don't get me wrong I love the summer but not this crap

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1737
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 35
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum