CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

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CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:44 am

Some interesting fodder while we wait for tropics to activate.  

We have had two super Ninos since the mid 90's and concurrently this is when the AMO had last reveresed from its cold phase into its current warm phase in the Atlantic.  I believe, and has been postulated by many others, that the massive amount of heat released through water vapor in the Pac and Atlantic due to these anomalously warm water temps(remember ocean surface area covers 75% of the planet) all of which slowly over time have worked its way north into the Arctic regions through various large scale wind circulations and oscillations, has been the main driver in the warming climate.  



As a result of this since 1996, (the first of the two latest super Nino's in the Trop Pac and at the same time the warm phase of the AMO in the Atlantic) the air temps over the Arctic have become anomalously warm.  Below is the air temp anomalies from 1996-2017.  Notice how the northern latitudes are anomalously warm since 1996; whereas, the mid latitudes are essentially normal.  What this implies is that the increased Arctic temps seems to be the main contributor to above normal global temps or "global warming" everyone has been in such an uproar about over the past 2 decades.   Now the question in front of us is is it because of man made causes or because of natural cyclical causes?  



Here are the air temp anomalies from 1960-1996, the last cold phase of the AMO(refer to map above).  Interestingly the temp anomalies show cooler than normal anomalies in the arctic and normal in the mid latitudes during the cool phase of the AMO.  Alsointeresting is the apparent opposite temp anomalies in the Antarctic as well.  There Appears to be a pretty strong coloration here.  Also interestingly enough this period starts the Sat era of this sort of data.    



What the point?  Well at some point we will be headed back into the very well documented cyclical cold phase of the AMO.  Timing suggests we are about due for the flip of the AMO to he cold phase in the very near future.  What will this mean to the big picture on climate change once we are in the heart of the cold phase of the AMO?  The next decade or so will be very interesting in proving the so called direct and definitive proof that man made CO2 is the cause of global warming.  

Its getting mighty cold in the N Atlantic.  Could we be seeing the beginning of the cold phase of the AMO?  The next 3-5yrs will be telling.  


The sun spot cycles are also a newly incorporated area of science that is being investigated into the big picture of the climate.  We are entering a period of solar minimum which historically for centuries is nicely coorolated with cooler periods in earths climate history.  



There is also a very well known phenomenon involving the Beaufort Gyre and its effects on the climate.  It too is set to reverse sometime soon. and when it does, possibly combined with the AMO flip, and solar minimum could have major cooling implications on the climate. Interesting times ahead for sure.  Whether your in the camp of man made global warming or not always keep an open mind about these sorts of things, because as history has shown us, just when we think we have it all figured out we realize we still have a lot to learn.    

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-06/scientists-are-keeping-close-eye-beaufort-gyre

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-wayward-arctic-current-could-cool-the-climate-in-europe

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:46 am

Im starting a thread for this because I may want to add to this over time. Plus if anyone wishes to have discussions about it we can keep it here. Just keep in mind the discussion must be kept civil and all sides are to be considered. Any ranting or raving of your opinions one way or the other on this particular debate will be subject to being deleted.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Quietace on Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:13 pm

I won't rant or rave or anything like that, but I will simply state that I tend to side with the opinion of 99% of atmospheric and climate scientists.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:07 pm

Quietace wrote:I won't rant or rave or anything like that, but I will simply state that I tend to side with the opinion of 99% of atmospheric and climate scientists.

With all due respect Ryan 99% of atmospheric scientists do not agree one way or the other.  That number is grossly inflated and only used by one side of the argument and actually I think the number I saw was 97%.  There are hundreds  and hundreds of papers written by many very prominent figures in the world of atmospheric and climate science arguing against man made global warming as the main driver.   The problem is that they dont get the same air time than what the popular opinion is.  They dont get the funding to cont down a path that isnt what the popular opinion is.  

There is no doubt in my mind that we humans are creating a toxic planet, and that we are contributing in many ways to the current warmth of the planet and because of this things need to change.  But if you think that I am ready to simply buy into an idea stating that we humans are the sole cause to a warming planet your crazy.  We compare our current climate and temps against temp anomalies of an arbitrary time period of 30 yrs(1981-2010), which is a mere fraction of a fraction of a fraction to the 10th power of time on this planet that has been going through periods of warmth and cooling on a time scale that in incomprehensible to most people.  It ludicrous to me to think that just because its the warmest that WE have seen that somehow there is no other explanation.  Again let me reiterate...I agree humans are a problem and things need to change, but in the drivers seat to climate change...I seriously doubt it.  The next decade or two will go a long way to either changing my mind, or changing some of the 99% you speak of in the other direction.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:15 pm

You are in an interesting spot Ryan at your current level of schooling.  My advise to you would be to keep an open mind and don't buy into everything you are going to be told about how things work lock stock and barrel.   Your real learning will only come after you complete your schooling.  I promise you that.  Always be an independent thinker.  

The greatest achievements our civilizations have accomplished have come on the heels of those who have dared to challenge the convention.  The world was flat...until it wasnt.  The earth was thought to have been the center of our universe..until it wasnt.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:13 am

sroc4 wrote:You are in an interesting spot Ryan at your current level of schooling.  My advise to you would be to keep an open mind and don't buy into everything you are going to be told about how things work lock stock and barrel.   Your real learning will only come after you complete your schooling.  I promise you that.  Always be an independent thinker.  

The greatest achievements our civilizations have accomplished have come on the heels of those who have dared to challenge the convention.  The world was flat...until it wasnt.  The earth was thought to have been the center of our universe..until it wasnt.  
I actually did not believe in human-forced climate change until about 2 years ago. I did my own research and came to my own conclusions, as I do with most things. I do not study things to just learn, but to fully understand.
I am the type of person to disagree with everything until I can prove myself otherwise (hence why I like and am conducting research). I appreciate your long posts though, having others challenge the general consensus is like you said important.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:49 pm

I enjoyed this read. It certainly looks like we're due to exit the +AMO phase and enter a negative one. I'm excited to see the affects this has on our weather pattern. The northern hemisphere in general appears to get very cold.

Very Happy

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:32 pm

A new study published yesterday out of Yale indicates there are likely other explanations to climate change other than simply "Man is causing it". Simplified the study suggests that there are normal long term oscillations that affect the earths climate and that since we are currently in a warming phase of such oscillations the post industrial revolution effects on the climate are actually resonating with the naturally occurring climate change. Put another way man made emissions are amplifying or enhancing the global warmth, rather then the sole cause to the global warmth. Regardless of what popular belief is out there please know that there are many many top level atmospheric and climate scientists who are not sold on Man made climate change as the single answer. We are far from understanding it all, so cont to keep an open mind regardless of which side of the fence you are on. The climate has become a political thing when it has nothing to do with political affiliation. Unfort there are many who use it to identify with a specific affiliation which should have everyone realize that there is more to the climate than what is thought. That is all.

https://scitechdaily.com/intrinsic-pink-noise-provides-better-view-of-climate-change/

https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.108701

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:11 am

Here is a great video.  I pulled this info from the 33&rain weather site.  There is a ton of fantastic information on their site.  If your not a member you should really consider checking them out.  Here is a link to get you to the site: https://www.33andrain.com/?&_fromLogin=1

VIDEO:
Presented By:   Dr Jennifer Francis (Research Professor at Rutgers University's Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences since 1994)
Interviewed By:   Greg Wilpert
Broadcast Team:  The Real News Network  
Presentation Date:   21st September, 2018

This presentation which is pitched at an "easy to understand" level covers the following:  
•It starts off with that cool Atlantic pool which has form off the southern tip of Greenland several years ago and how this has impacted on the Gulf stream.
•This is developed into an explanation of how this was partly responsible for the unusually positioned HP ridge which steered hurricane Florence into the east coast.
•Then this is also related to hurricane Harvey and Sandy.
•A more detailed explanation of the weaker and changing Jet Stream follows.
•Next the Californian droughts are explained (much longer term changes than those created by El Nino and La Nina episodes)  
•She distinguishes between natural processes in the warming Pacific and unnatural processes like the warm NPAC and the ice loss in the Bering Sea and off Alaska..
•You will see how this impacts on the whole N Am weather patterns and further afield.
•The final topic covers Super Typhoon Mangkhut and its intensity, excessive rainfall and the storm surge impacts are largely put down to climate change.

Note: italics content quoted from a member named "Bring back 1962-63"



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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Guest on Thu Nov 22, 2018 10:47 am

Scott I just watched and would argue that the science makes sense but the reasons why these changes to the ice sheets and SST are VERY debatable. The video did not change my opinion at all about the WHY!! I’m still going with a natural cycle of warming and cooling earth.

Thanks for
Posting it though

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Nov 22, 2018 11:27 am

syosnow94 wrote:Scott I just watched and would argue that the science makes sense but the reasons why these changes to the ice sheets and SST are VERY debatable. The video did not change my opinion at all about the WHY!!  I’m still going with a natural cycle of warming and cooling earth.

Thanks for
Posting it though

I think you should reconsider rewatching without the bias of thinking there is an agenda here. The take away here is the feedback mechanisms involved in the changes of the SST in the various locals leading to changes in Artic ice which changes air temps which changes temp gradients and thus wind patterns which has led to reinforcement to all of it. . Forget about what causes of it. It’s interesting stuff.

It is in my humble opinion that the main drivers behind climate change are natural and cyclical in origin however to say the human influence on the plant is zero is about as ignorant as saying the human influences are the only cause of climate change. The extremes of both sides of this debate are just that. The extremes. The truth always lies in the middle. In this case it leans way to the side of natural.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Guest on Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:14 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Scott I just watched and would argue that the science makes sense but the reasons why these changes to the ice sheets and SST are VERY debatable. The video did not change my opinion at all about the WHY!!  I’m still going with a natural cycle of warming and cooling earth.

Thanks for
Posting it though

I think you should reconsider rewatching without the bias of thinking there is an agenda here. The take away here is the feedback mechanisms involved in the changes of the SST in the various locals leading to changes in Artic ice which changes air temps which changes temp gradients and thus wind patterns which has led to reinforcement to all of it. . Forget about what causes of it. It’s interesting stuff.

It is in my humble opinion that the main drivers behind climate  change  are natural and cyclical in origin however to say the human influence on the plant is zero is about as ignorant as saying the human influences are the only cause of climate change.  The extremes of both sides of this debate are just that. The extremes. The truth always lies in the middle. In this case it leans way to the side of natural.

I ageee with you pretty much 100% But she was pushing an agenda about reducing fossil fuel burning and carbon monoxide

Happy Turkey Day brother

Lets get together for a few cocktails one day this winter

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:55 am

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Scott I just watched and would argue that the science makes sense but the reasons why these changes to the ice sheets and SST are VERY debatable. The video did not change my opinion at all about the WHY!!  I’m still going with a natural cycle of warming and cooling earth.

Thanks for
Posting it though

I think you should reconsider rewatching without the bias of thinking there is an agenda here. The take away here is the feedback mechanisms involved in the changes of the SST in the various locals leading to changes in Artic ice which changes air temps which changes temp gradients and thus wind patterns which has led to reinforcement to all of it. . Forget about what causes of it. It’s interesting stuff.

It is in my humble opinion that the main drivers behind climate  change  are natural and cyclical in origin however to say the human influence on the plant is zero is about as ignorant as saying the human influences are the only cause of climate change.  The extremes of both sides of this debate are just that. The extremes. The truth always lies in the middle. In this case it leans way to the side of natural.

I ageee with you pretty much 100%  But she was pushing an agenda about reducing fossil fuel burning and carbon monoxide

Happy Turkey Day brother

Lets get together for a few cocktails one day this winter

I agree with Doc on leaning towards the natural.Where I am sitting typing this in the HV of New York State was under water at one time then at another time, covered in 100 feet of ice.All of this without and human influence on the planet.I'm fine with attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions via solar panels, wind farms, EV's etc etc but the lowering of global temperatures as a result , I am very skeptical of.I think the earths natural tendencies as a result of Doc's fine discussion would negate any benefit.We live a fragile, tenuous existence on this rock.The massive asteroid strike in the Yucatan is said to have wiped out an entire species.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:37 am

In a discussion with some brilliant climatologist on the web site 33 & rain in a thread titled "The Arctic Thread I posed the question:

Also on a separate topic, but not sure where to post it, Its been claimed that approx. 80% of the worlds volcanoes are located deep beneath the surface of the world oceans; many if not most of which are, simply stated, unexplored and poorly researched.  I'm wondering if there is somewhere within 33&rains threads, and/or somewhere else, links to information/research into the roles(if any) of total magma output/volcanic activity occurring beneath the oceans surface and how or if they perhaps contribute to the overall large scale ocean currents (deep sea or surface) and perhaps consequently the SSTA patterns over time?  ie: oscillations such as the AMO on the Atlantic side; PDO and perhaps even some influences on overall ENSO cycle frequencies and/or intensities in the Pac, and perhaps the IO dipole SSTA configurations to name a few?  It appears that at least from some of my research into the topic, that the sun and sun spot cycles etc may play an important role on earthquake activity, and consequently changes in the movement of the earths liquid core.  

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1367-the-arctic-thread/?page=3&tab=comments#comment-105618

First off here is the direct link to that discussion but I encourage anyone who is interested to scour through the thread as there is some absolutely unbelievable discussion involving the state of the arctic.  Anyway here is the response I recived from   Midllands Ice Age (UK):

With regard to the above topic of subterranean activity it has recently been identified that at least 2 volcanos appear to be active in the Barents Sea region.

The following Google earth graph indicates 2 areas with very abnormally high temperatures and also large amounts of CO2 and CH4 being discharged. Could the  following have anything to do with polar ocean  warming via both the ocean temperatures and AGW effect.?

It looks as if warm water is 'boiling/bubbling' to the surface in 2 locations around Svalbard.

This will prevent ice forming in these areas.

Examine the following Earth map showing ocean waves/currents and temperatures in the region.

Look at locations  77.95N and 5.48E for a 'mad' surface temperature of 19.4C, or even 75.89N and 31.04E where it reaches 10.1C.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=22.06,77.70,1342/loc=101.801,36.549

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=22.06,77.70,1342/loc=101.801,36.549

In addition over on the ASIF thread they have been following a patch of revolving ice on the edge of the ice as it approaches the NE coast of Svalbard for a couple of years.  

What we do not know is whether these  features are relatively recent, or whether they have been active for some while and can hence be discounted.

Anyone know if the Google Earth has an 'archive' facility along with the Subterranean options?
Without doubt there are many underwater areas with magma and movement of the earth's crust beneath.

We know that there is a ridge running up through the Barents and up into the Arctic, it being the extension of the Icelandic mid Atlantic ridge.. It could well be that the 'weak solar' does have an effect, but there are people who know much more than I, and the above Google Map shows how 'neatly' the large volcano sits between the Atlantic jet current passing around Norway and the return current passing down the east coast of Greenland.

It clearly is an area where more research needs to be carried out.



Here are the static images of the area he is refer to and I have provided the links to the realtime loop which has ocean current overlays.  First one is the actual SST.  The second image is the SST anomalies.  Notice how the SST anomalies absolutely light up.  Another piece to a very complex puzzle that is our climate.




Below is an image of the current Arctic sea ice coverage. The area I have circled has been an area in the recent past several years and even a decade or so or more has been a hot topic (pardon the pun) on its lack of sea ice. Obv the mainstream idea of man made global warming has been what most people have been fed as the only cause, however, it really should be understood that we are far from any definitive answers. Again I strongly encourage people to head over to the 33&rain site for an unbiased objective, (albeit very technical and complex) discussion on climate change. The Arctic thread is only one of multiple threads that are interwoven in the topic of climate change.



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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

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