CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

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CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:44 am

Some interesting fodder while we wait for tropics to activate.  

We have had two super Ninos since the mid 90's and concurrently this is when the AMO had last reveresed from its cold phase into its current warm phase in the Atlantic.  I believe, and has been postulated by many others, that the massive amount of heat released through water vapor in the Pac and Atlantic due to these anomalously warm water temps(remember ocean surface area covers 75% of the planet) all of which slowly over time have worked its way north into the Arctic regions through various large scale wind circulations and oscillations, has been the main driver in the warming climate.  



As a result of this since 1996, (the first of the two latest super Nino's in the Trop Pac and at the same time the warm phase of the AMO in the Atlantic) the air temps over the Arctic have become anomalously warm.  Below is the air temp anomalies from 1996-2017.  Notice how the northern latitudes are anomalously warm since 1996; whereas, the mid latitudes are essentially normal.  What this implies is that the increased Arctic temps seems to be the main contributor to above normal global temps or "global warming" everyone has been in such an uproar about over the past 2 decades.   Now the question in front of us is is it because of man made causes or because of natural cyclical causes?  



Here are the air temp anomalies from 1960-1996, the last cold phase of the AMO(refer to map above).  Interestingly the temp anomalies show cooler than normal anomalies in the arctic and normal in the mid latitudes during the cool phase of the AMO.  Alsointeresting is the apparent opposite temp anomalies in the Antarctic as well.  There Appears to be a pretty strong coloration here.  Also interestingly enough this period starts the Sat era of this sort of data.    



What the point?  Well at some point we will be headed back into the very well documented cyclical cold phase of the AMO.  Timing suggests we are about due for the flip of the AMO to he cold phase in the very near future.  What will this mean to the big picture on climate change once we are in the heart of the cold phase of the AMO?  The next decade or so will be very interesting in proving the so called direct and definitive proof that man made CO2 is the cause of global warming.  

Its getting mighty cold in the N Atlantic.  Could we be seeing the beginning of the cold phase of the AMO?  The next 3-5yrs will be telling.  


The sun spot cycles are also a newly incorporated area of science that is being investigated into the big picture of the climate.  We are entering a period of solar minimum which historically for centuries is nicely coorolated with cooler periods in earths climate history.  



There is also a very well known phenomenon involving the Beaufort Gyre and its effects on the climate.  It too is set to reverse sometime soon. and when it does, possibly combined with the AMO flip, and solar minimum could have major cooling implications on the climate. Interesting times ahead for sure.  Whether your in the camp of man made global warming or not always keep an open mind about these sorts of things, because as history has shown us, just when we think we have it all figured out we realize we still have a lot to learn.    

https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-01-06/scientists-are-keeping-close-eye-beaufort-gyre

https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-wayward-arctic-current-could-cool-the-climate-in-europe

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:46 am

Im starting a thread for this because I may want to add to this over time. Plus if anyone wishes to have discussions about it we can keep it here. Just keep in mind the discussion must be kept civil and all sides are to be considered. Any ranting or raving of your opinions one way or the other on this particular debate will be subject to being deleted.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Quietace on Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:13 pm

I won't rant or rave or anything like that, but I will simply state that I tend to side with the opinion of 99% of atmospheric and climate scientists.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:07 pm

Quietace wrote:I won't rant or rave or anything like that, but I will simply state that I tend to side with the opinion of 99% of atmospheric and climate scientists.

With all due respect Ryan 99% of atmospheric scientists do not agree one way or the other.  That number is grossly inflated and only used by one side of the argument and actually I think the number I saw was 97%.  There are hundreds  and hundreds of papers written by many very prominent figures in the world of atmospheric and climate science arguing against man made global warming as the main driver.   The problem is that they dont get the same air time than what the popular opinion is.  They dont get the funding to cont down a path that isnt what the popular opinion is.  

There is no doubt in my mind that we humans are creating a toxic planet, and that we are contributing in many ways to the current warmth of the planet and because of this things need to change.  But if you think that I am ready to simply buy into an idea stating that we humans are the sole cause to a warming planet your crazy.  We compare our current climate and temps against temp anomalies of an arbitrary time period of 30 yrs(1981-2010), which is a mere fraction of a fraction of a fraction to the 10th power of time on this planet that has been going through periods of warmth and cooling on a time scale that in incomprehensible to most people.  It ludicrous to me to think that just because its the warmest that WE have seen that somehow there is no other explanation.  Again let me reiterate...I agree humans are a problem and things need to change, but in the drivers seat to climate change...I seriously doubt it.  The next decade or two will go a long way to either changing my mind, or changing some of the 99% you speak of in the other direction.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:15 pm

You are in an interesting spot Ryan at your current level of schooling.  My advise to you would be to keep an open mind and don't buy into everything you are going to be told about how things work lock stock and barrel.   Your real learning will only come after you complete your schooling.  I promise you that.  Always be an independent thinker.  

The greatest achievements our civilizations have accomplished have come on the heels of those who have dared to challenge the convention.  The world was flat...until it wasnt.  The earth was thought to have been the center of our universe..until it wasnt.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:13 am

sroc4 wrote:You are in an interesting spot Ryan at your current level of schooling.  My advise to you would be to keep an open mind and don't buy into everything you are going to be told about how things work lock stock and barrel.   Your real learning will only come after you complete your schooling.  I promise you that.  Always be an independent thinker.  

The greatest achievements our civilizations have accomplished have come on the heels of those who have dared to challenge the convention.  The world was flat...until it wasnt.  The earth was thought to have been the center of our universe..until it wasnt.  
I actually did not believe in human-forced climate change until about 2 years ago. I did my own research and came to my own conclusions, as I do with most things. I do not study things to just learn, but to fully understand.
I am the type of person to disagree with everything until I can prove myself otherwise (hence why I like and am conducting research). I appreciate your long posts though, having others challenge the general consensus is like you said important.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:49 pm

I enjoyed this read. It certainly looks like we're due to exit the +AMO phase and enter a negative one. I'm excited to see the affects this has on our weather pattern. The northern hemisphere in general appears to get very cold.

Very Happy

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:32 pm

A new study published yesterday out of Yale indicates there are likely other explanations to climate change other than simply "Man is causing it". Simplified the study suggests that there are normal long term oscillations that affect the earths climate and that since we are currently in a warming phase of such oscillations the post industrial revolution effects on the climate are actually resonating with the naturally occurring climate change. Put another way man made emissions are amplifying or enhancing the global warmth, rather then the sole cause to the global warmth. Regardless of what popular belief is out there please know that there are many many top level atmospheric and climate scientists who are not sold on Man made climate change as the single answer. We are far from understanding it all, so cont to keep an open mind regardless of which side of the fence you are on. The climate has become a political thing when it has nothing to do with political affiliation. Unfort there are many who use it to identify with a specific affiliation which should have everyone realize that there is more to the climate than what is thought. That is all.

https://scitechdaily.com/intrinsic-pink-noise-provides-better-view-of-climate-change/

https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.108701

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE: Large scale global wind oscillations, Super Ninos, AMO Cycles, Sun Spot Cycles, Beauford-Gyre, CO2

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