September 2018 Observations and Discussions

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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:43 pm

As we are hours away from September, here is what NOAA has temperature wise:

30-day outlook:

September 2018 Observations and Discussions Septem10

6 to 10 day outlook:

September 2018 Observations and Discussions 6to10d10

8 to 14 day outlook:

September 2018 Observations and Discussions 8to14d10

Week 3-4 outlook:

September 2018 Observations and Discussions Week3t10

Interestingly enough, the GEFS and GEPS have a bit of a cooldown around the 8th (algae has mentioned this in another thread).  It would be interesting if it lasts throughout that second week of September because it would challenge the 8-14 day outlook by the CPC above.

At any rate, the last September that was cooler than the 1981-2010 average was in 2013, but the anomaly was -0.1.  The last below average September prior to that was 2009, where the temperature anomaly was -1.7 relative to the 1981-2010 base period.

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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:59 am

The last September in which Central Park did not reach 90 degrees: 2011

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Post by docstox12 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:50 am

I have never seen a summer with so much orange on the NOOA Map for my area.Here we go again, back up near 90 or above in my area for the coming week.Brings back memories of the first few weeks of school in September in our ancient public school building with no AC.Slowly roasting to death in the classrooms.Hoping for an extended cool period.Not one night here in the 40's so far.
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Post by amugs on Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:32 am

Friday we break to normal to BN temp heading g through next weekend. The AO is also forecasted to go Negative 1-2 SD mid month due to forcing mechanisms such as PAC wave breaks, EAMT.
September 2018 Observations and Discussions Eps_ao10
September 2018 Observations and Discussions Gefs_a10September 2018 Observations and Discussions Eps_ao10
September 2018 Observations and Discussions Gefs_a10
 

Also, we have to see what happens next week with Florence which will have an affect on our sensible weather on way or another.
This week H &H are here, the WAR is pressing on us and if allowed to come back it will due to the anomously warm Atlantic SST. One reason why is the cold water or ring from the North Atlantic (no not from the glacier melt as some in the pro wx world are saying) through the eastern Atlantic) have essentially locked in this beast aka Bermuda High, Azores High, Hadley Cell, at the 500mb level, the friction between these temperature difference has this High pressure system basically locked in.
September 2018 Observations and Discussions Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1

From pro met NFS wx
September 2018 Observations and Discussions ?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_153598058830814&key=e1e7dc862af11f29652fc542d68928ac&libId=jlmb64ta0102n0l7000MAjj13osod&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1389-september-2018-discussion-and-observations%2F%3Ftab%3Dcomments%23comment-91158&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2F33andrain%2Fmonthly_2018_09%2F7F519F28-A3DB-44C6-BAB7-29F99A612F46.jpeg.22d10e39bd2432bcc3c2bb1c8aaa442b.jpeg&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain

Sowe sweat it out this week again and things should feel much better come Friday and next weekend. After that we shall see.

Have a great Labor Day everyone.

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:12 am

It is only 77 now and in the sun it feels like 97. I feel like I am cueing up for Disney World. Brutal.
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Post by frank 638 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:29 am

84*with a real feel of 89* .i cannot wait till it cools down i am finished with this heat and humid crap bring on the fall

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:18 pm

Too hot, hate it, this for next several days ugg. Maybe we get some excitement next week tracking Florence if she misses the pickup, which bernie seems to think will be the case.
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Too hot, hate it, this for next several days ugg.  Maybe we get some excitement next week tracking Florence if she misses the pickup, which bernie seems to think will be the case.

No he doesn’t. He merely pointed out the fact that there is a fork in the road and we need a few days before we see which fork she is going to take.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Too hot, hate it, this for next several days ugg.  Maybe we get some excitement next week tracking Florence if she misses the pickup, which bernie seems to think will be the case.

No he doesn’t. He merely pointed out the fact that there is a fork in the road and we need a few days before we see which fork she is going to take.
He did say he thinks the ridge is too flat, i took that to mean he thinks it doesnt pick it up, my bad.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:54 pm

It looks like the EPO/WPO will move into a negative state at some point in the next 10 days. This is likely to usher in more seasonable temps into our area beginning this weekend and next week, but it could only be temporary as I see the SE Ridge trying to resurface toward the middle of the month

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Post by amugs on Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:49 pm

AI and NAO still on course to go Negative about mid month. Along with WPO and EPI northern tier of plains and Mountains may see white gold, heck the Mountains (Rockies) have already.

September 2018 Observations and Discussions Ao.sprd2

September 2018 Observations and Discussions Nao.sprd2

September 2018 Observations and Discussions Ecmwf_10
September 2018 Observations and Discussions Ecmwf_11

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Post by Sparky Sparticles on Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:12 am

I feel sorry for the kids heading to school today - the bell hasn't even rung and already it's 82/feels like 86.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:44 am

I don't mind slightly above average at the end of the month as that might only mean mid-70s to low 80s. Not happy with the above average 90s right now. Summer: You are dismissed. Leave.
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:21 pm

Here come's a taste of fall, enjoy!!
September 2018 Observations and Discussions Img_2011

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:24 pm

Sparky Sparticles wrote:I feel sorry for the kids heading to school today - the bell hasn't even rung and already it's 82/feels like 86.

I do too..but we are not back to school yet..go back next Wed for that reason..all of our schools are getting and upgrade and AC was installed..so son home until the 12th.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:25 pm

amugs wrote:Here come's a taste of fall, enjoy!!
September 2018 Observations and Discussions Img_2011

Yeah!! Hope the start of school went well?
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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:22 pm

Our district started Tuesday, and due to a 3rd day of this heat they are having a half day tomorrow, no a/c in the schools

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Post by 1190ftalt on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:15 pm

Storm clouds heading toward Ft Lee !September 2018 Observations and Discussions 9a84e410

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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:22 pm

yeehaaaa! Nice storms rolling through, lots of ctg lightning, some gusty winds, and 1.5" of rain in an hour....

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Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:23 pm

Just drove from Mamaroneck to Port Chester on I-95 which is an absolute POND right now with 20 mph traffic. Training has set up over Westchester.
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Post by 1190ftalt on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:29 pm

Here is a picture from 24th floor looking north toward GWB, the storm is all north of the GWB !September 2018 Observations and Discussions 04e39f10

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Post by billg315 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:46 pm

Just had a strong gust front pass through. Virtually no rain just very strong wind gusts for about 10-15 min. Took a medium size branch off a tree in my neighbor’s yard. Radar captures it racing southeast pretty clearly:
September 2018 Observations and Discussions 78fae810
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Post by frank 638 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:54 pm

nothing crazy yet just some lighting , thunder and brief down pour thats it

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:04 pm

That was the most intense rain I think I have ever seen, it was actuallyt whiteout conditions. Lots of flooding but it dispersed pretty quickly once it let up. Lots of lightning. Only some light gusts.
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:10 pm

September 2018 Observations and Discussions E7eb7b10

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"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Nov 15th 3.00"
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