FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Page 5 of 20 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 12 ... 20  Next

Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:20 am

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Certainly some dry air wrapping into the center of circulation this morning.

Wow!  #truth.  It was not that evident early this morning but it certainly is apparent now.  


Which will have some significant short-term intensity implications (Florence looks pretty bad on IR compared to, as you said, this morning). The SW movement also continues with the COC almost at 24 N now (it was closer to 25 ish N earlier today).

_________________
Ryan
B.S. Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Graduate Meteorology Student at Florida State University
avatar
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 29
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 21
Location : Tallahassee, FL

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:00 am

Rayno:

"Look for guidance to start moving adjusting the tracks further north..well that's my theory. My area (assuming landfall) is between Myrtle Beach to Cape Cod."
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2520
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:00 am

Checked in with some pro mets videos last night and they are expecting GFS to adjust south toward Euro and head toward the Carolinas. Then it's just a matter of how far inland it tracks as it heads north.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      7.75"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3739
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 56
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Grselig on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:07 am

SROC says maybe north. Rayno says north. Other pro mets say south. Our own Quiet Ace suggests south because of the block. Going to be interesting to see what really pans out.
avatar
Grselig
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 886
Reputation : 59
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 48
Location : Wayne NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by larryrock72 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:08 am

Any chance the blocking high is not as strong or weakens? Then maybe she skirts the outer banks and ots?

larryrock72

Posts : 60
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2017-01-03
Age : 46
Location : Barnegat, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:12 am

larryrock72 wrote:Any chance the blocking high is not as strong or weakens? Then maybe she skirts the outer banks and ots?

That's the key, the strength of the block. If it weakens the storm could turn north sooner, bringing landfall further north. That's why mets won't lock in a southern landfall yet...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      7.75"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
avatar
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 3739
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 56
Location : Westwood, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:13 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Rayno:

"Look for guidance to start moving adjusting the tracks further north..well that's my theory. My area (assuming landfall) is between Myrtle Beach to Cape Cod."
scratch

_________________
Ryan
B.S. Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Graduate Meteorology Student at Florida State University
avatar
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 29
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 21
Location : Tallahassee, FL

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:14 am

12z Hurricane models, a grouping now east of NC. That grouping is very similar to the trend within the GFS and ICON the past few runs. Can't really tell if it stalls or it's the end of the run


Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 850
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:18 am

0Z FV3-GFS has a wacky run. I think once the recon data starts to come in the tracks will tighten.

Till then we track and track
avatar
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 745
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 56
Location : Stony Brook

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by billg315 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:03 am

My current thinking (for what it’s worth - which is not much) is that the system and trailing front with Gordo’s moisture moves through between Sunday and Tuesday. High Pressure slides over Eastern Canada/New England behind it mid-week as the front sinks south. Florence gets initially held south and makes landfall in North Carolina, but as the High slides east and a new front dives into the Midwest the remnants of Florence gets steered back northeast over VA, PA, NJ, CT or LI before exiting out to sea. This produces hurricane impacts in NC then heavy rains and flooding for most of the mid-Atlantic and our region with minimal winds (some gusts). If looking for a similar path I’d say Hurricane Diane 1955. (Just the path; That storm had some of its energy used up by Connie which made landfall in the same spot a few days earlier, although the combined effects of those storms produced epic flooding).
avatar
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2258
Reputation : 116
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 44
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:43 am

billg315 wrote:My current thinking (for what it’s worth - which is not much) is that the system and trailing front with Gordo’s moisture moves through between Sunday and Tuesday. High Pressure slides over Eastern Canada/New England behind it mid-week as the front sinks south. Florence gets initially held south and makes landfall in North Carolina, but as the High slides east and a new front dives into the Midwest the remnants of Florence gets steered back northeast over VA, PA, NJ, CT or LI before exiting out to sea. This produces hurricane impacts in NC then heavy rains and flooding for most of the mid-Atlantic and our region with minimal winds (some gusts). If looking for a similar path I’d say Hurricane Diane 1955. (Just the path; That storm had some of its energy used up by Connie which made landfall in the same spot a few days earlier, although the combined effects of those storms produced epic flooding).
If one wants a further north solution to take place (which ashamed to say I'm one of them), you need one of two things to happen... Florence intensifies quicker than forecasted which in turn changes the upper levels enough to bring the storm on a more WNW path vs west. Or better yet, the forward speed of Florence slows down which allows the high to move eastward thus allowing the storm to catch up to the ridge's western flank thus opening up a path to bring her up the coastline.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1481
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 52
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:49 am

I think their cone is a little too far south. I don't see this going into FL or GA. But I also do not see it getting into the Delmarva or SNJ. So...Carolina's should be on alert.

And yes, it is possible the remnants track our way to bring heavy tropical rainfall. That would pretty much be the extent of it for us.


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18315
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:56 am

Florence still at 65mph at the 11am advisory. Pressure down 1mb to 995. Does looks better organized though. It'll be interesting to see if she becomes a hurricane again by tonight

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 850
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:02 am

INIT 08/1500Z 24.5N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.6N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.6N 56.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 24.8N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.1N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 64.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 31.5N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 850
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:05 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I think their cone is a little too far south. I don't see this going into FL or GA. But I also do not see it getting into the Delmarva or SNJ. So...Carolina's should be on alert.

And yes, it is possible the remnants track our way to bring heavy tropical rainfall. That would pretty much be the extent of it for us.


Latest cone/advisory:

avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2520
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:27 am

Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15265
Reputation : 65
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:34 am

jmanley32 wrote:Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.

Until tomorrow's 00z Euro shows her coming up the coast lol. It's just too early to say where she'll landfall. Much more confidence to be had beyond tomorrow night. FWIW, Cranky (whom you all love lol) and several others are pointing out factors as to why they think a north trend will start soon.
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2520
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:50 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.

Until tomorrow's 00z Euro shows her coming up the coast lol. It's just too early to say where she'll landfall. Much more confidence to be had beyond tomorrow night. FWIW, Cranky (whom you all love lol) and several others are pointing out factors as to why they think a north trend will start soon.
What is the "why" in the reasoning for that? I'm just sitting at my desk coding so I am playing devil's advocate.

_________________
Ryan
B.S. Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Graduate Meteorology Student at Florida State University
avatar
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3572
Reputation : 29
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 21
Location : Tallahassee, FL

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:59 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think their cone is a little too far south. I don't see this going into FL or GA. But I also do not see it getting into the Delmarva or SNJ. So...Carolina's should be on alert.

And yes, it is possible the remnants track our way to bring heavy tropical rainfall. That would pretty much be the extent of it for us.


Latest cone/advisory:


Still too far south for my liking. I would capture SC, NC, and southern VA

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18315
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:05 pm

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Well after reading Frank's post I guess I'm done for now. Will keep an eye but as usual climo takes the cake for area of impact.

Until tomorrow's 00z Euro shows her coming up the coast lol. It's just too early to say where she'll landfall. Much more confidence to be had beyond tomorrow night. FWIW, Cranky (whom you all love lol) and several others are pointing out factors as to why they think a north trend will start soon.
What is the "why" in the reasoning for that? I'm just sitting at my desk coding so I am playing devil's advocate.

Unresolved atmospheric entities ;-)

@crankywxguy:

"I slept on Thursday's thoughts and wrote the new entry on Friday to account for the evolution during benchmark one.

This produced your new envelope and then started to explain what has to happen next. This graphic from early Friday still stands. We have the stop point right where Florence enters the south west Atlantic and that is that. I have my envelope I end the smaller outside obejective potential. Do I have to shift this south and west? Maybe but I doubt it and only when the observations say so. No other way.

The highs and the problem to rebuild them. See, this is what those two pieces want to do. Gordon is between them and very strong as discussed further above. It is still a problem not yet resolved. Until it is you stay with a stop point in confidence and the downstream larger envelope remains.

Options still remain here. I personally still think we halt early somewhere around Hatteras to Virginia Capes and turn a little offshore. Then what I dont know. Coastal parallel, draw away from the coast, perhaps loop...all possible because of all those other smaller entities that Florence has to dance with. Very tricky and that portion will not be resolved until Tuesday or Wednesday. Just telling the truth here.

First we got to get past the stop point which I think we can do tomorrow. Then hopefully modeling will tighten up and we can start to incorporate it to start to narrow this down. Then draw a new focused envelope and start going for impacts."



Last edited by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2520
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:06 pm

12z GFS looks to remain on the NE side of guidance. Heading toward the Outer Banks, we'll see if it hits the block like in 6z or comes up the coast

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 850
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:16 pm

CMC a bit stronger and north this run. Should have a landfall north of GA this time lol

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 850
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by rb924119 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:24 pm

I agree with Scott, and Frank, and anybody else who believes for a northward correction of models such as the EURO and UKMET suites. My initial forecast remains unchanged......for now.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4597
Reputation : 151
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:26 pm

12z GFS is OTS after parking offshore near the OBX, heading back south and then eventually back up and out.

I repeat: NO one knows where Flo will flow. ;-)
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2520
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by sroc4 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:36 pm

Even though she is ingesting dry air her mid and low level circulation are vertically stacked. As soon as she mixes out the dry air kaboom

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5875
Reputation : 176
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 20 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 12 ... 20  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum