FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:53 pm

And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run... Twisted Evil
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:05 pm

Flight Recon Data

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:13 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run... Twisted Evil
So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Joe Snow on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:13 pm

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:14 pm

sroc4 wrote:Even though she is ingesting dry air her mid and low level circulation are vertically stacked. As soon as she mixes out the dry air kaboom
Absolutely. Florence is well on her way to intensifying. The sky is literally the limit in the coming days in terms of its MPI....

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:16 pm

In all reality, nothing has changed so far today with the greatest probability of landfall still between SC and OBX.

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:19 pm

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run... Twisted Evil
So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:20 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run... Twisted Evil
So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)
No "ish" allowed, only exact lat/lon coordinates.

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:22 pm

If people want an easy way to compare the movement of Florence to the official track this is a decent site for that...
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:22 pm

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run... Twisted Evil
So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)
No "ish" allowed, only exact lat/lon coordinates.

Lol, omg here.

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:24 pm

Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?
Okay. The GFS is not OCEAN COUPLED. Thus, it's intensity forecasts are bogus, period, inaccurate, period, and unusable, period.

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:37 pm

Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?
Okay. The GFS is not OCEAN COUPLED. Thus, it's intensity forecasts are bogus, period, inaccurate, period, and unusable, period.
ill have to learn more about what that means. Jeeze no need be so testy sir. I figured so much just didn't know why.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by algae888 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:38 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run... Twisted Evil
So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)
No "ish" allowed, only exact lat/lon coordinates.

Lol, omg here.

With that high pressure anchored over New England there's no way she's coming up the coast and if she stalls she will be pulled out to sea with the next positively tilted trough as you see over the northern Midwest. It is highly unlikely that she will make landfall from the northern Mid-Atlantic on North if she comes this for North she probably recurves out to sea we shall see
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by rb924119 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?
Okay. The GFS is not OCEAN COUPLED. Thus, it's intensity forecasts are bogus, period, inaccurate, period, and unusable, period.
ill have to learn more about what that means. Jeeze no need be so testy sir. I figured so much just didn't know why.

All that means is that the GFS does not a have link in its coding between the physics of the atmosphere and of the ocean. It only considers the atmospheric physics, which is why you see it with runaway intensification. It doesn't consider the role of things such as energy derived (or lack thereof) from the ocean. Make sense?

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by frank 638 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:52 pm

Hey guys I was just wondering if this storm was to come up the cost how strong will she be and should we start preparing now for the worst

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:09 pm

No large differences on the Euro through 84...

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by rb924119 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:21 pm

Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:21 pm

Southern NC/ NC/SC border landfall on the EC

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Quietace on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:24 pm

Looks like EURO heads for NC. Seems as if foreign models trended north today, as many suspected.

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:26 pm

You guys are good euro more north hits nc. I dunno something tells me we may still be in for a surprise up this way. Not direct landfall but the run yesterday like Irene was bad enough. I could still see something like that happening if our brick wall block is at all flexible. My co worker said to me last week she feels like we are going to see a hurricane this year. No idea why but sometimes women's intuition trumps all lol
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:27 pm

Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all
how is it diff than hrs in the track looked pretty similar to me except made full landfall. Euro is also super fast the 24 he jump is like 500 miles plus.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by rb924119 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:28 pm

Quietace wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.
I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all
.

The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:29 pm

I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board! pirat

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