FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Page 17 of 20 Previous  1 ... 10 ... 16, 17, 18, 19, 20  Next

Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:53 pm

The track guidance continues to
show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope
and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has
again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are
nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC
errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,
respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the
center.


avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2476
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:03 pm

It'll be interesting to see if there's any changes in 0z tonight after the rapid intensification. The 0z ICON initializes 40mb weaker though, so maybe not lol

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 841
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Zhukov1945 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:06 pm


ICON inbound now...btw is this model worth anything? Really never heard any strong opinions on it one way or another.
avatar
Zhukov1945

Posts : 22
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:06 pm

This thing is going to pass right through the outer banks late Thursday night and then SLOWLY crawl due north into the Chesapeake bay by Saturday afternoon. We will get soaking rains and an easterly wind Sunday Monday amounting to a good nor’easter
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3614
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Zhukov1945 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:08 pm

syosnow94 wrote:This thing is going to pass right through the outer banks late Thursday night and then SLOWLY crawl due north into the Chesapeake bay by Saturday afternoon. We will get soaking rains and an easterly wind Sunday Monday amounting to a good nor’easter

Relative to where we were a day or so ago I'll take it
avatar
Zhukov1945

Posts : 22
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:14 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:This thing is going to pass right through the outer banks late Thursday night and then SLOWLY crawl due north into the Chesapeake bay by Saturday afternoon. We will get soaking rains and an easterly wind Sunday Monday amounting to a good nor’easter

Relative to where we were a day or so ago I'll take it

That’s assuming I’m correct. I don’t know much so take it with a grain of salt
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3614
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 pm

ICON hovering over the Outer Banks at hr 102, but ridge is weakening now overhead, could start to drift north along the coast

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 841
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by rb924119 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:ICON hovering over the Outer Banks at hr 102, but ridge is weakening now overhead, could start to drift north along the coast

Confirmed.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4564
Reputation : 150
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:33 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:ICON hovering over the Outer Banks at hr 102, but ridge is weakening now overhead, could start to drift north along the coast

Confirmed.

That run confuses me, seemed to me as there was enough room for it to come north as the ridge broke down a bit

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 841
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:38 pm

GFS initializes at 956mb, better at least.

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 841
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:09 am

00z GFS stalls her over the Outer Banks, effectively decimating them. Mad
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2476
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:10 am

CMC coming in more north

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 841
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:15 am

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC coming in more north

And then it goes SW like the GFS

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 841
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:01 am

If the 0Z ECMWF OP were to verify, Wilmington, NC is doomed.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2125
Reputation : 47
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by algae888 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:45 am

Most guidance has shifted Southward last night and Florence makes landfall in Southern North Carolina. I think the only way that we will see any effects from her is if she stalls off the coast and remains strong and sits there for several days before moving northward. If she stalls Over land she will weaken too much then we will probably have zero impact from her
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4688
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:32 am

There appears to be an increased area of shar unexpectedly developing out ahead of Florence.  As a result she looks only slightly less organized this morning





Looks like models are converging on this area of as direct impact.  I warn though that last minute wiggles and wobbles can and often do happen.  Regardless of the exact location there will be a wide area of devastation, much wider than what is shown here.  This is merely a potential landfall location.


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5802
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:50 am

Microwave imagery indicates she might actually be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) at the moment.


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5802
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by amugs on Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:42 am


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 9566
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:12 am

Shear and or concurrent ERC has def weakened her a little. Pressures are up from low 940's to now low 950's




_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5802
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:30 am

Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3614
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:51 am

syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy. bananadude told ya

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 5802
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:54 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy.  bananadude told ya

See you then Scott
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3614
Reputation : 129
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 46
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:18 am

Scroc when do you they will they have an idea of where this is going to make landfall?
avatar
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2088
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 54
Location : Hazlet Township

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:46 am

12z NAM stalls Flor just off NC's coast. Catastrophic rain.



_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18243
Reputation : 245
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 26
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:47 am

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Disappointed to check in this morning and see the latest forecast. Guess it’s time to throw in the towel for us up here in the tri state. Even rainfall impacts look to be minimal if any at all. Bummer.

See ya in late Nov buddy.  bananadude told ya

See you then Scott
hey when I said move on you didn't like it Scott syo says it and its fine...hmmm. I agree doesn't look like we go see anything. But I'm not quitting completely. Btw did u guys see the rain map for nc yikes 20 plus!
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15078
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 17 of 20 Previous  1 ... 10 ... 16, 17, 18, 19, 20  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum