FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:04 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS is a hurricane Irene redux for our area with catastrophic flooding. Good lord.
ha I was just saying to someone looks exactly like Irene! With that kinda rain and already muddy ground here wpuld need but 50mph winds to cause a lot downed trees. In that scenario. Not saying it will happen. Everything is still on the table except ots with this trough.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS is a hurricane Irene redux for our area with catastrophic flooding. Good lord.
ha I was just saying to someone looks exactly like Irene! With that kinda rain and already muddy ground here wpuld need but 50mph winds to cause a lot downed trees. In that scenario. Not saying it will happen. Everything is still on the table except ots with this trough.

If that panned out, we'd be in big trouble. Flooding is already a real possibility this Monday and Tuesday with moisture from Gordon riding along a frontal boundary. Imagine how saturated the area already is coupled with that kind of solution? I can't.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:18 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS is a hurricane Irene redux for our area with catastrophic flooding. Good lord.
ha I was just saying to someone looks exactly like Irene! With that kinda rain and already muddy ground here wpuld need but 50mph winds to cause a lot downed trees. In that scenario. Not saying it will happen. Everything is still on the table except ots with this trough.

If that panned out, we'd be in big trouble. Flooding is already a real possibility this Monday and Tuesday with moisture from Gordon riding along a frontal boundary. Imagine how saturated the area already is coupled with that kind of solution? I can't.
Yeah its going to be a long wait but I think by beginning of week we should have a good idea what shes doing.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS is a hurricane Irene redux for our area with catastrophic flooding. Good lord.
ha I was just saying to someone looks exactly like Irene! With that kinda rain and already muddy ground here wpuld need but 50mph winds to cause a lot downed trees. In that scenario. Not saying it will happen. Everything is still on the table except ots with this trough.
I've been nervously tracking Florence not only with the potential impacts that could occur, but I'm hosting my mother's 80th birthday on Sunday the 16th. If Florence or her remains makes it up this way, it needs to clear out by then.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:25 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS is a hurricane Irene redux for our area with catastrophic flooding. Good lord.
ha I was just saying to someone looks exactly like Irene! With that kinda rain and already muddy ground here wpuld need but 50mph winds to cause a lot downed trees. In that scenario. Not saying it will happen. Everything is still on the table except ots with this trough.
I've been nervously tracking Florence not only with the potential impacts that could occur, but I'm hosting my mother's 80th birthday on Sunday the 16th. If Florence or her remains makes it up this way, it needs to clear out by then.
She really riockets toward US once beginning of week comes, what is slowing her so much now and causes such a increase in speed in a few days? Is the increase in intensity coming why she speeds up?
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:27 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:18z GFS is a hurricane Irene redux for our area with catastrophic flooding. Good lord.
ha I was just saying to someone looks exactly like Irene! With that kinda rain and already muddy ground here wpuld need but 50mph winds to cause a lot downed trees. In that scenario. Not saying it will happen. Everything is still on the table except ots with this trough.
I've been nervously tracking Florence not only with the potential impacts that could occur, but I'm hosting my mother's 80th birthday on Sunday the 16th. If Florence or her remains makes it up this way, it needs to clear out by then.
same thing here..we have a big anniversary party for my parents on the 16th....and can someone remind me...how much rain we got with George...was Irene worse?
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:54 pm

IMO florence will be moved out by that time unless she gets trapped under the ridge, and with my luck itll prolly stall right over me.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:09 pm


Many members hit the outer banks of NC then bring Florence northbound.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:22 pm

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:24 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Many members hit the outer banks of NC then bring Florence northbound.
Those winds in kts cant be right, this go be a cat 4, is it cuz its ensembles? But none get close to 100mph, so i am guessing they alot higher and hence higher once up here, so 60mph up here, that would cause some problems for sure, especially if sustained, yeah thats not a good look.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 8:46 pm

Bernie, says 50/50 shot now landfalling hurricane somewhere between NC and cape cod, he believes as do i, there will be flip flopping through the weekend and even after and I agree, it will be interesting to see if there is any NW jog at all, but even so I think it will still miss OTS track.

LOL, snaps at global warming comment

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yNGaXvoBNbKj
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:04 pm

sorry...earlier I asked about hurricane george it was hurricane floyd that I remember the flooding rains..
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:16 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:sorry...earlier I asked about hurricane george it was hurricane floyd that I remember the flooding rains..
Floyd and Irene were both huge rainmakers. There were multiple locations in and around the area that received over 10 inches.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:25 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:sorry...earlier I asked about hurricane george it was hurricane floyd that I remember the flooding rains..
Floyd and Irene were both huge rainmakers. There were multiple locations in and around the area that received over 10 inches.
tx..yes..I needed a memory jog..to me floyd was worse in the area I lived than Irene was. That why I was fuzzy. It was all about the location. If I am not mistaken and I should google it. Floyd was the storm that destroyed Manville. Tx..sorry this is now banter
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Bernie, says 50/50 shot now landfalling hurricane somewhere between NC and cape cod, he believes as do i, there will be flip flopping through the weekend and even after and I agree, it will be interesting to see if there is any NW jog at all, but even so I think it will still miss OTS track.

LOL, snaps at global warming comment

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yNGaXvoBNbKj
good video.I like the way he explains things..but he did have a lot of comments on the side...lol
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:48 pm

0z ICON further NE than 12z. Just misses landfall in NC and hits the block offshore east of Cape May

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:55 pm

Is the icon a new model..this is the first time I see it being mentioned with this storm...
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:57 pm

00z GFS ridge building in is slightly weaker and a tiny bit more north, this may allow for a hit somewhere more north on the EC, also looks like it could have a possible escape if I am reading the maps right.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:00 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Is the icon a new model..this is the first time I see it being mentioned with this storm...

Yes, I believe it's the new German model. Not sure how great it is lol

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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:02 am

florence better hang in there, down to 60mph, wouldnt it be ironic if she got sheared apart completely.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:03 am

Sanchize06 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Is the icon a new model..this is the first time I see it being mentioned with this storm...

Yes, I believe it's the new German model. Not sure how great it is lol
tx that run did not bode well for us
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:03 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Is the icon a new model..this is the first time I see it being mentioned with this storm...

Yes, I believe it's the new German model. Not sure how great it is lol
tx that run did not bode well for us
no it misses completely, the beaches would get battered but theres no rain or wind impacts looks like.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:04 am

sanchiz, is there anyway in the icon run that she could get pushed back west into a landfall, or is a OTS the only way? That would be crazy.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:09 am

00z going for a SC/GA hit? further south by quite a bit at hr 126.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:10 am

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Is the icon a new model..this is the first time I see it being mentioned with this storm...

Yes, I believe it's the new German model. Not sure how great it is lol
tx that run did not bode well for us
no it misses completely, the beaches would get battered but theres no rain or wind impacts looks like.
that's what I was talking about....they are working right now on sand replenishment in Seaside...
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

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