Long Range Thread 17.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:20 am


The Euro seasonal outlook is downright beautiful.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:23 am

Finally a below normal day and many more to come the rest of the month. The ensembles continue to be very consistent with the strong Ridge out west and trough in the east actually the ridge becomes in a more favorable place around day 10 and Beyond. I actually like the period Between October 21st through the end of the month for a significant East Coast storm. We shall see
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:35 am

algae888 wrote:Finally a below normal day and many more to come the rest of the month. The ensembles continue to be very consistent with the strong Ridge out west and trough in the east actually the ridge becomes in a more favorable place around day 10 and Beyond. I actually like the period Between October 21st through the end of the month for a significant East Coast storm. We shall see

Beat me to that Nor signal - Destructive Interference in the PAC with a -MT signal and GOA LP pumping the PNA. This could be a very interesting last week timeframe to col off those highly anomalously warm Atlantic waters that have been pumping teh WAR this fall.
Heres you look from NFSWX on twitter:






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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:41 am

This is what we may expect in the winter if the MJO holds this line up rotation of 8,1,2!!
Why the colder east Indian Ocean and warmer west off Australia will promote a nice divergence zone for these Kelvin Waves to rotate through.




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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:24 am

amugs wrote:This is what we may expect in the winter if the MJO holds this line up rotation of 8,1,2!!
Why the colder east Indian Ocean and warmer west off Australia will promote a nice divergence zone for these Kelvin  Waves to rotate through.



Mugs that is a beautiful image let that keep doing a 360 right through the winter. What I like about this pattern is the ridge up into the Artic and its placement out west plus a very active subtropical jet. I think those two we can count on this winter. if this was December 1st heck even mid-november this board would be lighting up right now
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:48 am

algae888 wrote:
amugs wrote:This is what we may expect in the winter if the MJO holds this line up rotation of 8,1,2!!
Why the colder east Indian Ocean and warmer west off Australia will promote a nice divergence zone for these Kelvin  Waves to rotate through.



Mugs that is a beautiful image let that keep doing a 360 right through the winter. What I like about this pattern is the ridge up into the Artic and its placement out west plus a very active subtropical jet. I think those two we can count on this winter. if this was December 1st heck even mid-november this board would be lighting up right now


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:39 am

Interesting pattern next week will bring our coldest air of the season so far. The north Pacific Jet Stream goes poleward (shifts from west-east to south-north). That will form a +PNA which will squash the SE Ridge and allow a trough with a source air mass from the Arctic to settle in over the east 21st-26th. There is 2 or 3 storm coastal storm signals showing up in this time frame too. Something to watch for sure!!





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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:35 pm

Latest ENSO weeklies:
                                                                               
Region 1+2... 0.4 (down 0.3)
                                                                   
Region 3...     0.7 (no change)
                                                             
Region3.4...   0.6 (down 0.1)
                                                                             
Region 4...     0.9 (up 0.1)
                                                                   
Still looking good for a weak/moderate Modoki or central based Nino
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:47 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Latest ENSO weeklies:
                                                                               
Region 1+2... 0.4 (down 0.3)
                                                                   
Region 3...     0.7 (no change)
                                                             
Region3.4...   0.6 (down 0.1)
                                                                             
Region 4...     0.9 (up 0.1)
                                                                   
Still looking good for a weak/moderate Modoki or central based Nino

Not surprised. Lots of blue showing up off the Peruvian coast last 7 days. Meanwhile, warm pool in north-central PAC still lookin' good!


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 Yesterday at 3:58 pm

Still very much like where my extended outlook sits with respect to almost every detail. I remain adamant that this is not a true pattern change......yet, though i may be off +/- each side of this cooler interlude by a couple days. I like how the FV3 looks overall, and believe that the EURO suite (and eventually lol) the GFS suite (playing into its typical cold season bias off too much eastern U.S. troughing) will come around to aligning with my thoughts presented earlier. Either way, I WILL be doing verification as able, but I like where I sit right now, and believe the true pattern change holds off until November.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 Today at 9:37 am

rb924119 wrote:Still very much like where my extended outlook sits with respect to almost every detail. I remain adamant that this is not a true pattern change......yet, though i may be off +/- each side of this cooler interlude by a couple days. I like how the FV3 looks overall, and believe that the EURO suite (and eventually lol) the GFS suite (playing into its typical cold season bias off too much eastern U.S. troughing) will come around to aligning with my thoughts presented earlier. Either way, I WILL be doing verification as able, but I like where I sit right now, and believe the true pattern change holds off until November.
Rb I have to respectively disagree with this analysis. Let's just look at the facts we've gone from a plus 9in temperature departures the first 11 days to October to around a -6 temperature departure from the 12th through the 22nd using Guidance the next 5 days. We've gone from Ridge after Ridge and anomalous ones at that to trough after trough which are also very anomalous some 15 degrees below normal tomorrow and the upcoming weekend. I do agree however that the late October through the first week of November will feature the coldest and possibly most volatile weather but we are definitely in a pattern change right now. Going forward I feel that we will have a relatively tranquil period from around mid November through mid to late December as the atmosphere kind of relaxes from the extreme patterns she has been in. El ninos are usually back-loaded Winters and just through my experience when the atmosphere goes through extremes it tends to calm down for a period of time. I like where we are at this point heading into Winter should be fun times
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx Today at 10:32 am

Agree with you Al.

The pattern turns more robust and anomalous the last week of October into November. Our first snow, especially N&W of NYC, is probable in that time period.

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