Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[sroc4]

The coast looks like rain and inland as well. We'll inland may be mix to start like 80.miles from the coast. No
problem, this storm track is a  great sign, if this were later Dec or Jan it's snow.
Jman there is no warm up so to speak. If yubtjin temp around 50 is a warm then I'll show you a bridge.
Skins is absolutely correct the pattern becomes conducive for storms and cold. Give the models time to figure out the pieces of energy.  A Scandam avian block retrograding to Greenland and then an omega block over Canada will force the LP to cut underneath. Could be a big storm at the endish of the 1st week of December.

50 is t-shirt weather : ) Show me the bridge lol. Of course and I am supposed to go away the weekend of the 8th to a concert in CT.  Yes I can drive but I would prefer it not be a big snowstorm to drive in, its few and far between me and my wife get a sitter for a overnight.

Jman here are your historic Avgs for CPK for Nov and Dec.  As you can see 50 is about normal for this time of year.  Temps may reach low, to maybe mid 50's at best for a brief period between Sat and Monday, but it wont feel very warm as Sat and Monday both look rainy and overcast while Sunday appears to be gusty with winds from the N to NE.  So while the high may tech get AN it will likely be short lived and the "feel" likely wont be short sleeves weather.  Thereafter; the temps go back down to mid 40's for Highs which is below normal.  

Honestly any significant warm up seen in the md and LR projections I would cont to expect to see those warm ups to trend cooler as we approach real time.  The pattern seems to be such that at least for the foreseeable future the warm ups wont be that warm and the cold will be COLD.  With CPK avg snow for Nov and Dec combined being less than 6" and seeing is that thus far CPK has recorded 6.4" any snow between now and 2019 is a bonus.  That said I strongly expect several legitimate chances for additional measurable snow for CPK, and surrounding areas,  before the end of the calendar year with the type of pattern is evolving over the next month with the first 2 weeks of Dec as the first chances.    

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycnov.pdf
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycdec.pdf

[algae888]

Scott I agree strongly with your second paragraph and I don't know where j m a n was hearing that it's going to be warm there are no Outlets that I'm aware of that are suggesting that anyway today's guidance is finally starting to Trend in the way that I suspect with a lot of storms getting underneath us  instead of cutting into the Lakes. The models are starting to pick up on the blocking  in the Ao and Nao domain. the ao is currently forecast to drop some -4 standard deviations look for snow chances starting mid next week right through the first week or two of December

[Frank_Wx]

While it will be cold next week...I am not a fan of this 500mb look for snowstorms. I do not like where the block is placed, nor that heights in the western U.S. are flat.

[sroc4]

While it will be cold next week...I am not a fan of this 500mb look for snowstorms. I do not like where the block is placed, nor that heights in the western U.S. are flat.

Honestly its what happens after this that has me excited, ie: 3rd-6th.  EPO is going negative, AO stays neg, NAO comes back towards neutral but dips back into the negative, and PNA goes less pos but hints of it remaining in pos territory into Dec are strong in the ensembles.  The ensemble means show a slightly diff story IMHO then what is shown in the images above.   I personally will take my chances with a neg epo and AO driving cold south; a neg NAO that slows things down off the coast and a slight pos to neutral PNA likely compliments of the active STJ via weak ENSO sending pieces of energy to either up from the GOM in a MILLER A scenario and or phasing with well times N energy.

[skinsfan1177]

Canadian weeklies look good for December

[skinsfan1177]

[rb924119]

While it will be cold next week...I am not a fan of this 500mb look for snowstorms. I do not like where the block is placed, nor that heights in the western U.S. are flat.

Honestly its what happens after this that has me excited, ie: 3rd-6th.  EPO is going negative, AO stays neg, NAO comes back towards neutral but dips back into the negative, and PNA goes less pos but hints of it remaining in pos territory into Dec are strong in the ensembles.  The ensemble means show a slightly diff story IMHO then what is shown in the images above.   I personally will take my chances with a neg epo and AO driving cold south; a neg NAO that slows things down off the coast and a slight pos to neutral PNA likely compliments of the active STJ via weak ENSO sending pieces of energy to either up from the GOM in a MILLER A scenario and or phasing with well times N energy.

Agree Scott.

I hope everybody is having an absolutely merry Thanksgiving!!

[Math23x7]

If we're going to have a cold start to December, then these images of hr 240 of the 0Z 11/24 EURO OP are not what you want to see:





In addition, the ECMWF ENS has the MJO going into phases 2 and 3 by the second weekend of December, also not ideal for cold/snow in December:



These projections need to be really off to get the setup needed for the December much of this forum wants.

Mike,

You are going by one run and a MJO forecast of teh EURO that has been schooled by the GEFS recently. Will here be a couple of days of warmth relative yes we are in early December and it is possible. The models are still figuring out the Scan block retrogression west and the downstream affects it will have. Is the PAC operating not nearly as we would like but a reshuffle is always needed.

GEFS MJO - these are cold phases



For your time frame:








Warm Up








This should be colder - it is contradicting itself with its 500mb look with the trough.

So point is we are still transitioning into winter and the models will struggle at this stage. Modle mayhem and variations run to run will be happening so sit back and track.

Could the EURO be correct? Sure it can but has the GEFS did a better job recently with forecasting the MJO and subsequent 500mb pattern - 1000% YES.

Time will tlll and all I know is I like that storm track and wetness we are seeing- this will have great feedback with soil saturation as we move into the Winter.

I leave yuo with this on this Saturday from our own Armando who posted this on Thanksgiving from 33&rain wx board:

My point? The volatility will be maximized, the "games" have begun with NWP, but the most important thing to do is recognize the evolving pattern as we approach early December. As @earthlight put it; it's not a matter of "if", but "when".

Have a great day!!

Mugs

[Guest]

Oh shit Doc and CP. the warmicist is back at it

[sroc4]

MUGS  I think you inadvertently clicked edit instead of quote in response to Mikeys post.  See above.  

A few comments on Mikey's post.  First and foremost an operational model post at hour 240 should be trusted verbatim the same way a 16year old who just had a sleep over with her friends and says she doesn't know why the bottle of bacardi rum is empty and why there was throw up in the toilet the morning after.  (yes this was my cousin yesterday at Thanksgiving trying to explain herself...lol).  Mikey did the same thing last year and over and over as we came in under 3-5days the hr 240 hr projection was nothing like reality.  Yes Mikey is at it again. Im not sure why.  

All this said there is actual evidence that we will see a period of "relative" warming between approx. Dec 2-4th or so through Dec 10th-14th of Dec.  But do not mistake this for an all out prolonged torch AND I still believe we see a snow threat, and possibly two(not a huge snowstorm) between Dec 3rd and the 14th with the later half of that time frame more likely.  

What Mikeys CONUS views do not show...……………..






.....is the neg EPO look when you pan out to the North American view.  The Euro model suite has a know bias of holding energy back in the west.  With this in mind along with support from the Ensemble mean of a -EPO around this time frame I expect to see the torch that being depicted by the 850mb temp anomaly map Mikey posted to be slowly blunted as we get closer in time with the center of the cold pushing further east in time.  That said I think we likely see AN temp anomalies overall for this time frame with periods of cool mixed in.



There are rumblings that there are ongoing perturbations to the strat combined with complex interactions between the MJO/ENSO and AAM forecasts such that the reset into a more favorable sustained cold and potentially snowy mid December through possibly early Jan shall return before the next "reset" occurs.  Again I have said this a number of times thus far the LR "warm ups" will likely cont to end up blunted in intensity and duration in reality vs what they were feared to be in the LR projections, and the cold stretches will likely be as advertised.  That said nothing is guaranteed, so you get what you get and you don't get upset.

[amugs]

Thanks Scott for pointing this out

[rb924119]

How often do we see a jet configuration such that you see the left-exit and right-entrance regions of two separate jet streaks working constructively to enhance precipitation?? Not too often. Yet another testament to the wonders that extremely negatively tilting troughs can work. Not to mention that lead streak is short and stubby; even BETTER dynamics in play!!!

If somebody could post the image for me that would be great lol mobile is apparently “logged out” of the hosting server....?

[sroc4]

If we're going to have a cold start to December, then these images of hr 240 of the 0Z 11/24 EURO OP are not what you want to see:

Just to show you how volatile the LR operational model forecasts are going to be, and why you cant buy into one soln or another, and why you really need to look at an ensemble mean forecast(and even here can be a lot of evolution take place as we get in close) in times of high volatility such as now to get an idea of where we are headed here is last nights 00z Euro Op run compared to the one one for the exact same time frame, 00z Dec 4th, Mikey pointed out yesterday morning.  

[amugs]

= muted.
He k even the EPS has been off this winter in the LR and the GEFS have been calling on the Scan block like crazy.

Nov 30 next possible snowfall N and W of City  maybe Driscoll Brdige in NJ dividing line but thinking more I 78.
Time will.tell but a couple inches maybe in store. 
Watch th epanic as they call for thi's and they send thousands brining and salting roads in knee her reaction to Nov 15-16 storm.

[weatherwatchermom]

= muted.
He k even the EPS has been off this winter in the LR and the GEFS have been calling on the Scan block like crazy.

Nov 30 next possible snowfall N and W of City  maybe Driscoll Brdige in NJ dividing line but thinking more I 78.
Time will.tell but a couple inches maybe in store. 
Watch th epanic as they call for thi's and they send thousands brining and salting roads in knee her reaction to Nov 15-16 storm.

ha you are probably right about the knee jerk reaction...I posted an article in banter this morning about the last storm and the forcast that was predicted..I would not want to be in any authoritative position to make the snow prep calls...hope you are enjoying your holiday weekend...

[algae888]

I'll say one thing there's no shortage of short waves and storms moving through the next few weeks hopefully we get one of these to move South of us still have climo against us as normal high temperature are now in the mid-to-upper 40s closer to 50 near Central Park. What's been impressive is that we are currently 16 consecutive days below normal which will probably end today which should average about normal to slightly above and tomorrow also then we're back below normal the rest of this week so we should have enough cold air to work with if we can get one of these short waves to move underneath us

[Math23x7]

Looks at this warm waters off Ecuador/Peru.  Can you say "East Based El Nino"?

[rb924119]

Looks at this warm waters off Ecuador/Peru.  Can you say "East Based El Nino"?

This is a very valid point and will likely help to buck the cold press a bit in coming weeks (more to come on this from me later), but this will likely begin to drop off in a big way starting in the next 2-4 days through at least the following seven days, if not longer, as the pressure patterns shuffle around. Point being, it’s a transient warm signal; not predominant.

[Frank_Wx]

It looks like there will be a warm-up the first few days of December, but the GFS Ensembles paint a cold picture for our area again after the 4th or so. The MJO is shown to be in phases 8-1-2 after December 4th as well. To me - I believe Scott posted this too - this is the time frame we should keep an eye out for our first widespread snow event. It is NOT a fantastic pattern by any means, but it's one that could still yield something nice.

ENSO regions 3 and 3.4 registered a temp of +1.3 - the warmest regions of the 4 signaling to me we're still looking at a modoki type of El Nino this winter. Remember, the aforementioned regions are also showing warmer than normal SST's at depth.

Moral of the story: cold air returns this week - we warm up again December 1st-4th - we cool down after the 4th with a storm threat between the 6th and 10th.

[rb924119]

Looks at this warm waters off Ecuador/Peru.  Can you say "East Based El Nino"?

This is a very valid point and will likely help to buck the cold press a bit in coming weeks (more to come on this from me later), but this will likely begin to drop off in a big way starting in the next 2-4 days through at least the following seven days, if not longer, as the pressure patterns shuffle around. Point being, it’s a transient warm signal; not predominant.

, the differences between the GFS and EURO MJO forecasts are laughable, and in my opinion, the GFS forecasts have been significantly closer to reality than the EURO’s. Therefore, I’m inclined to be much more accepting of a slower rotation through cold phases (7-2) with subsequent decaying and a loss of coherent wave propagation althogether by Phase 4 (just like we saw this last time). This is further supported by the current SST anomaly configuration across the tropical belt, with significantly warmer anomalies coexisting in regions with “cold” phases of the MJO, with the opposite also being true, which also supports the slower and more cohesive propagation through these cold phases, as convection will be more likely to be sustained, and much shorter/less cohesive/decaying rotations through warmer phases. I believe @Isotherm mentioned something along these lines in another thread as well.

By the same token, this will also likely work to destructively interfere with the warm response brought about by a recent Niño 1.2 spike (also set to reverse strongly within the next couple of days). Assuming a mutual destruction of signal from the tropics between these two, as well as a lack of any significant contribution from the SOI responses, the expected pattern will likely need to be discerned entirely from Northern Hemispheric progressions, as well as Stratospheric perturbations, which at this time, continue to appear to be quite favorable through the extended, in general, and in my opinion, which has already been discussed ad-nauseum with expected model corrections.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It looks like there will be a warm-up the first few days of December, but the GFS Ensembles paint a cold picture for our area again after the 4th or so. The MJO is shown to be in phases 8-1-2 after December 4th as well. To me - I believe Scott posted this too - this is the time frame we should keep an eye out for our first widespread snow event. It is NOT a fantastic pattern by any means, but it's one that could still yield something nice.

ENSO regions 3 and 3.4 registered a temp of +1.3 - the warmest regions of the 4 signaling to me we're still looking at a modoki type of El Nino this winter. Remember, the aforementioned regions are also showing warmer than normal SST's at depth.

Moral of the story: cold air returns this week - we warm up again December 1st-4th - we cool down after the 4th with a storm threat between the 6th and 10th.

So November 15th doesn't count as out first widespread snow event? I think 90% of our population saw at least 4 inches of snow and everyone from central NYC on north at least 6 inches. You can't be in Nashville during these things, it's not allowed.

[Frank_Wx]

It looks like there will be a warm-up the first few days of December, but the GFS Ensembles paint a cold picture for our area again after the 4th or so. The MJO is shown to be in phases 8-1-2 after December 4th as well. To me - I believe Scott posted this too - this is the time frame we should keep an eye out for our first widespread snow event. It is NOT a fantastic pattern by any means, but it's one that could still yield something nice.

ENSO regions 3 and 3.4 registered a temp of +1.3 - the warmest regions of the 4 signaling to me we're still looking at a modoki type of El Nino this winter. Remember, the aforementioned regions are also showing warmer than normal SST's at depth.

Moral of the story: cold air returns this week - we warm up again December 1st-4th - we cool down after the 4th with a storm threat between the 6th and 10th.

So November 15th doesn't count as out first widespread snow event? I think 90% of our population saw at least 4 inches of snow and everyone from central NYC on north at least 6 inches. You can't be in Nashville during these things, it's not allowed.

Hahaha very true.

I was so out of the loop with that storm it is hardly in my memory.

[nutleyblizzard]

12z GFS Para shows a day 8 snowstorm and then another one later in the run out in fantasy land.

[algae888]

That is one hell of a cold shot coming in about six days on all guidance today now let's see if we can get it well timed system that can deliver us the white gold

[algae888]

If the euro is Right today the coldest air mass on the planet will be over the US including the Northeast in 7 days that is one hell of a EPO and AO block that it is showing

[rb924119]

Looks at this warm waters off Ecuador/Peru.  Can you say "East Based El Nino"?

This is a very valid point and will likely help to buck the cold press a bit in coming weeks (more to come on this from me later), but this will likely begin to drop off in a big way starting in the next 2-4 days through at least the following seven days, if not longer, as the pressure patterns shuffle around. Point being, it’s a transient warm signal; not predominant.

The differences between the GFS and EURO MJO forecasts are laughable, and in my opinion, the GFS forecasts have been significantly closer to reality than the EURO’s. Therefore, I’m inclined to be much more accepting of a slower rotation through cold phases (7-2) with subsequent decaying and a loss of coherent wave propagation althogether by Phase 4 (just like we saw this last time). This is further supported by the current SST anomaly configuration across the tropical belt, with significantly warmer anomalies coexisting in regions with “cold” phases of the MJO, with the opposite also being true, which also supports the slower and more cohesive propagation through these cold phases, as convection will be more likely to be sustained, and much shorter/less cohesive/decaying rotations through warmer phases. I believe @Isotherm mentioned something along these lines in another thread as well.

By the same token, this will also likely work to destructively interfere with the warm response brought about by a recent Niño 1.2 spike (also set to reverse strongly within the next couple of days). Assuming a mutual destruction of signal from the tropics between these two, as well as a lack of any significant contribution from the SOI responses, the expected pattern will likely need to be discerned entirely from Northern Hemispheric progressions, as well as Stratospheric perturbations, which at this time, continue to appear to be quite favorable through the extended, in general, and in my opinion, which has already been discussed ad-nauseum with expected model corrections.

Regarding the EURO Ensemble:

You want the icing on the proverbial cake? Did you happen to notice the Rex Block that “develops” in the Middle East post Day 12 beneath the 70N/70E ridge? Not only is the pattern regarding the European trough/70N-70E remaining consistent and the magnitude steadily increasing for that signal, but it now appears we have a Rex Block showing up amongst the Ensemble, which would only help to further sustain that same look. *IF* that additional signal is real, which I think it is right now, I think many will be asking themselves “What warmup?” a week from now lol I’d give you a brief run for neutral, MAYBE; but anything above that for a time-mean period would be pretty tough, especially given other factors that have been previously highlighted.

[sroc4]

Totally agree Ray. And thank you for the technical write ups.

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