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Long Range Thread 17.0

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 27, 2018 5:57 pm

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Looks at this warm waters off Ecuador/Peru.  Can you say "East Based El Nino"?

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Eastba10

This is a very valid point and will likely help to buck the cold press a bit in coming weeks (more to come on this from me later), but this will likely begin to drop off in a big way starting in the next 2-4 days through at least the following seven days, if not longer, as the pressure patterns shuffle around. Point being, it’s a transient warm signal; not predominant.

The differences between the GFS and EURO MJO forecasts are laughable, and in my opinion, the GFS forecasts have been significantly closer to reality than the EURO’s. Therefore, I’m inclined to be much more accepting of a slower rotation through cold phases (7-2) with subsequent decaying and a loss of coherent wave propagation althogether by Phase 4 (just like we saw this last time). This is further supported by the current SST anomaly configuration across the tropical belt, with significantly warmer anomalies coexisting in regions with “cold” phases of the MJO, with the opposite also being true, which also supports the slower and more cohesive propagation through these cold phases, as convection will be more likely to be sustained, and much shorter/less cohesive/decaying rotations through warmer phases. I believe @Isotherm mentioned something along these lines in another thread as well.

By the same token, this will also likely work to destructively interfere with the warm response brought about by a recent Niño 1.2 spike (also set to reverse strongly within the next couple of days). Assuming a mutual destruction of signal from the tropics between these two, as well as a lack of any significant contribution from the SOI responses, the expected pattern will likely need to be discerned entirely from Northern Hemispheric progressions, as well as Stratospheric perturbations, which at this time, continue to appear to be quite favorable through the extended, in general, and in my opinion, which has already been discussed ad-nauseum with expected model corrections.

Regarding the EURO Ensemble:

You want the icing on the proverbial cake? Did you happen to notice the Rex Block that “develops” in the Middle East post Day 12 beneath the 70N/70E ridge? Not only is the pattern regarding the European trough/70N-70E remaining consistent and the magnitude steadily increasing for that signal, but it now appears we have a Rex Block showing up amongst the Ensemble, which would only help to further sustain that same look. *IF* that additional signal is real, which I think it is right now, I think many will be asking themselves “What warmup?” a week from now lol I’d give you a brief run for neutral, MAYBE; but anything above that for a time-mean period would be pretty tough, especially given other factors that have been previously highlighted.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 27, 2018 6:10 pm

Totally agree Ray. And thank you for the technical write ups.

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:29 am

Our board has for the most part been relatively quite.  I can assure you that in the very near future it will become active.  As has been stated multiple times we still have two opportunities between approx. Dec4th-Dec 10th for wintery weather.  I personally have liked this time frame since about Nov 20th-21st.  The progression of the pattern has pretty much gone as planned over the last few weeks, and is the reason for why this particular time frame has persistently looked viable for potential winter weather eventts for some time now.   The details are still very muddled, but the signals for two systems cont to be there, and have only strengthened(IMHO) as we begin to approach a much more reliable time frame for modeling.  The first threat is hovering right around the 7-8day time frame and the second is approx. 10-12 days away give or take.  There is still eons of time for the details to cont to fluctuate in the modeling; however. ie: its there one run then seems to disappear the next.  This will likely cont to occur for a few more days, esp if your glued to surface maps on the models; longer for the second threat.  The ensembles for both GEFS and EPS cont to point the way for these 2 threats. Will they ultimately pan out for all of us?  Some of us? or none of us?  Nothing is for certain at this stage, but again to reiterate; the signals have only grown stronger as we get closer for the time frame listed above.  

I will leave you this morning with a few quotes from Ray(rb) and mugsy who have been posting on another board, but felt the information is so pertinent for what we have in front of us as well as the general idea as we head deeper into the season.   (Guys if you object to me quoting you from another board please let me know and I will adjust the post accordingly.)   

Regarding the active storm track this fall and all the rain we have had up through now.  
rb said:
"Aye, and even though the atmospheric column has been too warm, look at the storms themselves and even more importantly, THE TRACKS they’ve taken. Many of these waves have developed into coastals, which have absolutely exploded around our latitude. I would say although rainy (gotta remember it’s still only November!!), we have capitalized on a majority of the threats that have shown up in longer range modeling. The signals themselves have remained consistent; it’s not like they’ve shown up and then come crunch time they’re weak waves that haven’t produced much. It’s been quite the opposite. Very important to remember as we continue through this season. "  
…..
1. Strongly agree.
2. Not only this, but average storm tracks in Autumn more often than not correlate to Winter tendencies as well
3. Strongly agree, and this has also been echoed by @Anastasia Beaverhausen in earlier posts. Many pages back. As we enter the true cold season, this feedback will likely become quite the force given the already highly anomalous cold/snow proliferation in Canada for the last few months.


Mugsy said in response:

#2 and #3 and soil moisture feedback will.enhance storm tracks as well from what I have researched.


I will leave you with two maps.  Recall a specific post I made from back in the early fall.  Specifically the first page of this thread on Sept 18th regarding soil moisture anomalies. https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t935-long-range-thread-17-0#139710
Mugsy brought up soil moisture again in his quote above and while there are much bigger and more complex drivers to the overall pattern globally, soil moisture content can often be overlooked as an important indicater of what to expect on a more localized geographic area, esp when they are exceptionally anomalous as they have been from late July through current time.  Here was the soil moisture map I posted from that earlier post and the current soil moisture map.  Below the images I will leave you with one last quote from Ray(rb) defining why the soil moisture can be so significant.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Soil_m11
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Soil_m12

"Yeah, that certainly makes conceptual sense, mugsy.  

For those wondering, as the soil moisture anomalies foster time-mean lower height anomalies via the dampening of lower-level heat flux during the warm season (since it takes a lot more energy to evaporate the water from the soil before it can sufficiently warm through incoming solar radiation, also known as insolation) and even into the transtion season (Autumn), this leaves a “shadow” of sorts in the atmosphere. This shadow, if enhanced long enough, can actually feed back and alter the atmospheric steering flow such that a time-mean trough becomes established via dampened lower-level heat fluxes compared to surrounding regions. If further continued into the Autumn and even into Winter, thermal gradients between the cooler moisture-cooled ground and drier, warmer  regions surrounding it start to become enhanced as the ambient gradient increases via solar fluctuations. As we know, mid-latitude cyclones develop from these thermal imbalances, but because the mean atmospheric flow has become established from the earlier feedback, the storm track generally persists. This will then lead to further feedback except with cold and snow, as we’ve seen in Canada. The general theme will persist until a major pattern change can interject (on the global scale, like an ENSO signal, oceanic oscillations, etc.)."

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:04 am

sroc4 wrote:Our board has for the most part been relatively quite.  I can assure you that in the very near future it will become active.  As has been stated multiple times we still have two opportunities between approx. Dec4th-Dec 10th for wintery weather.  I personally have liked this time frame since about Nov 20th-21st.  The progression of the pattern has pretty much gone as planned over the last few weeks, and is the reason for why this particular time frame has persistently looked viable for potential winter weather eventts for some time now.   The details are still very muddled, but the signals for two systems cont to be there, and have only strengthened(IMHO) as we begin to approach a much more reliable time frame for modeling.  The first threat is hovering right around the 7-8day time frame and the second is approx. 10-12 days away give or take.  There is still eons of time for the details to cont to fluctuate in the modeling; however. ie: its there one run then seems to disappear the next.  This will likely cont to occur for a few more days, esp if your glued to surface maps on the models; longer for the second threat.  The ensembles for both GEFS and EPS cont to point the way for these 2 threats. Will they ultimately pan out for all of us?  Some of us? or none of us?  Nothing is for certain at this stage, but again to reiterate; the signals have only grown stronger as we get closer for the time frame listed above.  

I will leave you this morning with a few quotes from Ray(rb) and mugsy who have been posting on another board, but felt the information is so pertinent for what we have in front of us as well as the general idea as we head deeper into the season.   (Guys if you object to me quoting you from another board please let me know and I will adjust the post accordingly.)   

Regarding the active storm track this fall and all the rain we have had up through now.  
rb said:
"Aye, and even though the atmospheric column has been too warm, look at the storms themselves and even more importantly, THE TRACKS they’ve taken. Many of these waves have developed into coastals, which have absolutely exploded around our latitude. I would say although rainy (gotta remember it’s still only November!!), we have capitalized on a majority of the threats that have shown up in longer range modeling. The signals themselves have remained consistent; it’s not like they’ve shown up and then come crunch time they’re weak waves that haven’t produced much. It’s been quite the opposite. Very important to remember as we continue through this season. "  
…..
1. Strongly agree.
2. Not only this, but average storm tracks in Autumn more often than not correlate to Winter tendencies as well
3. Strongly agree, and this has also been echoed by @Anastasia Beaverhausen in earlier posts. Many pages back. As we enter the true cold season, this feedback will likely become quite the force given the already highly anomalous cold/snow proliferation in Canada for the last few months.


Mugsy said in response:

#2 and #3 and soil moisture feedback will.enhance storm tracks as well from what I have researched.


I will leave you with two maps.  Recall a specific post I made from back in the early fall.  Specifically the first page of this thread on Sept 18th regarding soil moisture anomalies. https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t935-long-range-thread-17-0#139710
Mugsy brought up soil moisture again in his quote above and while there are much bigger and more complex drivers to the overall pattern globally, soil moisture content can often be overlooked as an important indicater of what to expect on a more localized geographic area, esp when they are exceptionally anomalous as they have been from late July through current time.  Here was the soil moisture map I posted from that earlier post and the current soil moisture map.  Below the images I will leave you with one last quote from Ray(rb) defining why the soil moisture can be so significant.  

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Soil_m11
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Soil_m12

"Yeah, that certainly makes conceptual sense, mugsy.  

For those wondering, as the soil moisture anomalies foster time-mean lower height anomalies via the dampening of lower-level heat flux during the warm season (since it takes a lot more energy to evaporate the water from the soil before it can sufficiently warm through incoming solar radiation, also known as insolation) and even into the transtion season (Autumn), this leaves a “shadow” of sorts in the atmosphere. This shadow, if enhanced long enough, can actually feed back and alter the atmospheric steering flow such that a time-mean trough becomes established via dampened lower-level heat fluxes compared to surrounding regions. If further continued into the Autumn and even into Winter, thermal gradients between the cooler moisture-cooled ground and drier, warmer  regions surrounding it start to become enhanced as the ambient gradient increases via solar fluctuations. As we know, mid-latitude cyclones develop from these thermal imbalances, but because the mean atmospheric flow has become established from the earlier feedback, the storm track generally persists. This will then lead to further feedback except with cold and snow, as we’ve seen in Canada. The general theme will persist until a major pattern change can interject (on the global scale, like an ENSO signal, oceanic oscillations, etc.)."

I mentioned first week 10 days of December for awhile especially the 5/6 and the 10th
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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:36 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Rest up peeps it looks like first 10 days of December we will be teacking a couple snow storms.
I heard its warming up the end of the week and then through a majority of December.

I wouldn’t expect any “warm up” to be very warm or long term. Skins is right on with his time frame. Expect a lot of volatility in the models as the pattern is in the process of restructuring.

I remember skins. And credit where credit is due. This was my post on Nov 20th in response to yours. On this board at least You called this specific time frame first as far as I can tell. Lol.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:20 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Rest up peeps it looks like first 10 days of December we will be teacking a couple snow storms.
I heard its warming up the end of the week and then through a majority of December.

I wouldn’t expect any “warm up” to be very warm or long term. Skins is right on with his time frame. Expect a lot of volatility in the models as the pattern is in the process of restructuring.

I remember skins. And credit where credit is due. This was my post on Nov 20th in response to yours. On this board at least You called this specific time frame first as far as I can tell. Lol.

Sroc what are your thoughts in regard about the first time period around the 5th as far its affect on the gollowing storm around the 10th
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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:28 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Rest up peeps it looks like first 10 days of December we will be teacking a couple snow storms.
I heard its warming up the end of the week and then through a majority of December.

I wouldn’t expect any “warm up” to be very warm or long term. Skins is right on with his time frame. Expect a lot of volatility in the models as the pattern is in the process of restructuring.

I remember skins. And credit where credit is due. This was my post on Nov 20th in response to yours. On this board at least You called this specific time frame first as far as I can tell. Lol.

Sroc what are your thoughts in regard about the first time period around the 5th as far its affect on the gollowing storm around the 10th

I have yet to really look at specifics to date since the volatility in the modeling has been exceptionally high, so in all honesty I really dont have much to say. I will start looking at the details as we head into the weekend and/or I start to see some relative consistencies within modeling in some of the key areas and factors at 500mb.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by rb924119 Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:11 am

Scott, I have no problem with you quoting me from other sources, and do try to post my thoughts everywhere when relevant. In that case, I didn’t really see a “flow” in the conversation here to bring it over, but I have absolutely no issues with you doing so. Also, GREAT investigative work tying it in with your earlier post and graphics, which is something that I should have given you credit for in my original post, as I recalled the images posted above in my mind while I was writing that. I honestly sincerely apologize for that :/

Secondly, and after some quick and dirty analysis, I would look for the December 5th system to trend colder in future runs given the progged Northern Hemispheric pattern and in consideration of tropical forcing mechanisms. I strongly believe the coastal regions will be in play for yet another accumulating snowfall event, with posters to the northwest possibly missing out nearly entirely.

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Post by algae888 Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:28 am

Both today's GFS in CMC have the storm for December 5th the GFS is an apps Runner with transfer to the coast CMC is a coastal. Still a lot to be determined what we do have is the 50/50 low from Sunday's departing storm but we do not have strong high-pressure to our North the high pressure is just dropping down into the Midwest.  there will be some confluence from that 50/50 low so hopefully that can lock in the cold air.
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:35 pm

The pattern is in it normal transitional phase and Scott thanks for bringing this over - it was a more technical discussion on that board and nothing against our members here please.

There are so many complex drivers to our snowstorms that start in the Tibetan plateau to the North Pole to the Scandinavia to terrestrial alignments and sun perturbations as well. Oh lets not forget the oceans affects.

the point and great maps about soil moisture enhancement is relatively new concept that states basically wet begets wet and the storm tracks we see as ray said in the fall are an omen for that what is to come. I really have not paid much attention to everything since I am swamped at work with state monitoring upcoming (bunch of horse poop!) BUT one thing I am noticing is that we have a cocktail of parameters that are going to induce what I think will be a a great period from next week until the late December time frame. I really dont care what the LR models show as far as warm ups etc. The amount of cold air and snow pack that has been built up above 60* and even 50* is tremendous - this will induce very strong cold intrusions and the albiedo affect should help with blocking as will low solar or no solar basically.
here my bold call for this upcoming period from what I see with my amateur eye candy!
Dec 5thish
Dec 9thish
Dec 14thish
Dec 17thish
ish = +/- 1

All possibilities for storms - will they all be white - Hot Diggity I think and hope so!!

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Post by sroc4 Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:08 pm

Actually Mugs using soil moisture content in forecasting precip and temps is not a new concept at all. I actually first learned about it back on the 7-online weather board from Bill Evans.  Here is more interesting info on how it works.  

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/35/

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

Soil moisture is important to forecasting. It effects both the temperature forecast and precipitation forecast. Let's first start with the temperature forecast. High soil moisture will produce high evaporation, especially if temperatures warm significantly during the day. This evaporation will produce evaporative cooling. Although the temperature warms during the day, the evaporation does prevent the temperature from gOLOGIST JEFF HABYetting as warm as it otherwise would have. A good example is comparing Mississippi to Arizona in the summer time (both states are on about the same latitude). Mississippi generally has a high soil moisture content and evapotranspiration while Arizona generally has dry soils and low values of evapotranspiration. High temperatures in southern Arizona average over 100 degrees in the summer while temperatures generally do not rise above 100 in Mississippi (unless a drought reduces soil moisture). The humidity does make it feel more uncomfortable outside though. It is hotter in Arizona, but the humidity in Mississippi can make it feel just as hot in the summer. High soil moisture values will tend to increase the dewpoint. This has a major consequence on forecasted lows. The overnight low under uniform weather conditions will not drop by more than a couple degrees below the evening dewpoint, especially if the dewpoint is above 60 F. Condensation (a warming process) occurs when the temperature tries to drop below the dewpoint at night. Therefore, high dewpoints limit the amount of overnight cooling. If dewpoint are low, such as when a continental high pressure is in place or a location is located in a dry climate (or dry weather pattern), the overnight low will be much cooler than the afternoon high. Since the dewpoint is low, the temperature can continue falling at night without condensation warming the air and limiting the cooling. Rule of thumb: If the dewpoint depression is large during the afternoon, there will be a large temperature range between the high and low temperature.

Soil moisture is also important to precipitation forecasts. High soil moisture increases the likelihood of moisture convergence. A trigger mechanism such as a front or low pressure will not produce precipitation unless there is moisture in place to lift. Moist air rising has a much better chance of producing precipitation than dry air that is rising. High soil moisture continuously evaporates moisture into the air, which helps to supply low level moisture. The best combination is to have moist soils along with moisture being advected from a moisture source such as the Gulf of Mexico into a trigger mechanism. Droughts and Floods can produce a positive feedback loop that can continue the drought or flood. When the soils dry out, there is less moisture for fronts and other trigger mechanism to lift and therefore there is a continuation of less rainfall. When floods occur, the supply of evaporating moisture to the atmosphere is continuous and there is always moisture in place for a trigger mechanism to lift. It takes a dramatic shift in the weather pattern sometimes to end a drought or flood because of this positive feedback loop. There are several ways to infer the soil moisture across a forecast region. One way is the study the 24-hour precipitation charts each day. From these you can determine which locations have wet or dry soils. Some states have mesonets that measure soil moisture directly. Keeping track of the soil moisture can make you both a better temperature and precipitation forecaster.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by algae888 Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:47 pm

Isotherm has a nice update on his website about the upcoming pattern and the rest of december. He talked about the Pacific relaxing with the negative EPO Ridge for only a brief period but having a good Atlantic / artic. Looking at the ensembles the last several days and the latest Euro weeklies I was a little skeptical of his conclusions but lo and behold we see the ensembles lose the blue ball over Alaska and start bringing ridging into Greenland. I encourage everyone to read it it's a good read it's also on American weather website. Fun times ahead
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:54 pm

Para showed a big storm for 8-10 timeframe a big over running event buckle up lots to teack
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:09 pm

Scott I meant new in the fact of using this toil sine forecasting began back in the early part of last century, can't believe I just said that LOL. Great tool and very informative post sric, should have clarified my meaning.

Peeps we have a Jet Extension coupling or retraction that is going to allow both side of the continent to block us up and the jet stream is locked in for this ride through December

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:48 pm

Peeps,
So we have a clipper coming in for the end of Nov the 30th may give a coating.


Then we have the 5th could be a SECS, I 95 classic possible.

Then we have Dec 8-10th for a what looks to be a big set up.

Get your rest peeps.

EPO going to pump. Why PAC jet retraction from way to its weastLong Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Ecmwf-10
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Fv3p_z10

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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:49 am

A summary of last night's runs for December 5th the CMC is West and mainly rain GFS is suppressed no precipitation at all the euro is very close. For the December 8th to 10th system GFS is a cutter ymeuro close to a bomb just offshore get some snow into the area CMC has nothing still a lot to be determined
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:19 am

algae888 wrote:A summary of last night's runs for December 5th the CMC is West and mainly rain GFS is suppressed no precipitation at all the euro is very close. For the December 8th to 10th system GFS is a cutter ymeuro   close to a bomb just offshore get some snow into the area CMC has nothing still a lot to be determined

I don't buy a cutter solution
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:20 am

Its going to a windshield wiper affect with this setup
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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:23 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
algae888 wrote:A summary of last night's runs for December 5th the CMC is West and mainly rain GFS is suppressed no precipitation at all the euro is very close. For the December 8th to 10th system GFS is a cutter ymeuro   close to a bomb just offshore get some snow into the area CMC has nothing still a lot to be determined
I don't buy a cutter solution
I dont either skins
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Post by algae888 Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:29 pm

The CMC and the GFS has the December 8th through 10th storm sliding to our South the new GFS as a monster storm coming right up the coast still plenty of time to Iron this one out but I like where we stand about 9 days away
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Post by amugs Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:56 pm

algae888 wrote:The CMC and the GFS has the December 8th through 10th storm sliding to our South the new GFS as a monster storm coming right up the coast still plenty of time to Iron this one out but I like where we stand about 9 days away

It originates from the Deep South on the GEFS with a to moisture with the STJ pumping. This has potential due to the fact you have the EPO pumping cold air, the PNA is spiked up into BC, the 50/50 low in in place and the NAO is slightly N (heights over Greenland) - all at this time. Lots to see at this point.

See the SE to NE orientation of he black lines - indicates a digging storm deep into the Bayou region and then up and out - that would be MECS/HECS verbatim.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 12 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37

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Post by algae888 Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:02 pm

Nice snow storm on the Euro day 8 and 9
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:23 pm

Umm ya think al lol euro has areawide godzilla! This would screw my plans that weekend which would really stink supposed go a concert at mohegan in ct and though I can drive in the snow traffic would b a nightmare on 95.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Umm ya think al lol euro has areawide godzilla! This would screw my plans that weekend which would really stink supposed go a concert at mohegan in ct and though I can drive in the snow traffic would b a nightmare on 95.

Euro was nice but models are all over the place lots of time to get details
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:56 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Umm ya think al lol euro has areawide godzilla! This would screw my plans that weekend which would really stink supposed go a concert at mohegan in ct and though I can drive in the snow traffic would b a nightmare on 95.

Euro was nice but models are all over the place lots of time to get details
oh I know 00z euro was a inland special.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:27 pm

It’s a week out but the pattern supports something like it. Let’s all say it together: “GODZILLA.”

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Post by frank 638 Fri Nov 30, 2018 5:12 pm

Goldberg has mentioned we could be true we could be tracking a snow storm for next weekend

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