Long Range Thread 17.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Grselig on Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:46 pm

What we need now is a good Hanukah miracle. It happens.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:28 pm

rb924119 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Stick a fork in it.

HOLD YOUR FIRE!!!!!!! Lol it ain’t over yet.

Reverse jinx.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:49 pm

It's far from a final solution ITS 6 DAYS AWAY
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:57 pm

Folks we are 5 -6 days out so chillax.

The models are picking up on moving out the suppression junk over NE and now SE Canada faster which is a good trend. How far N this can gain latitude will be seen butt he trend N has been well modeled today so far. How far North it can get remains to be seen so WE TRACK!!!

One thing that is intriguing is this development of the confluence being weaker and kicking east faster. This time tomorrow the pieces of energy should be in better but still not great sampling grid areas which will help a bit in guidance. WV loop is what we need to use once it comes into range of this to see what is what.






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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by SnowForest on Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:21 pm

amugs wrote:Folks we are 5 -6 days out so chillax.

The models are picking up on moving out the suppression junk over NE and now SE Canada faster which is a good trend. How far N this can gain latitude will be seen butt he trend N has been well modeled today so far. How far North it can get remains to be seen so WE TRACK!!!

One thing that is intriguing is this development of the confluence being weaker and kicking east faster. This time tomorrow the pieces of energy should be in better but still not great sampling grid areas which will help a bit in guidance. WV loop is what we need to use once it comes into range of this to see what is what.






Hello, I had a question: From what I read in your post, there is a certain time when the pieces of energy come into better sampling areas. Where are these better sampling areas, and generally what is the time leading up to an event when the energies come into better sampling?
Thanks!

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:39 pm

Hearing EPS ticked NW this run.

Still too many factors not well sampled so I'm not going to pay too close attention run to run for another 24 hours or so. Still nice to hear it ticked better even if it may not mean much at this point.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:01 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Hearing EPS ticked NW this run.

Still too many factors not well sampled so I'm not going to pay too close attention run to run for another 24 hours or so. Still nice to hear it ticked better even if it may not mean much at this point.
There are even a few rainstorms on the eps we are far from a final solution and it looks like December 10th and 11th so still 6 to 7 days out as the progression of this low has slowed all options are still on the table and I will say it again I find it hard to believe that North and South Carolina or going to receive 1 to 3 feet of snow from this
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:12 pm

SnowForest wrote:
amugs wrote:Folks we are 5 -6 days out so chillax.

The models are picking up on moving out the suppression junk over NE and now SE Canada faster which is a good trend. How far N this can gain latitude will be seen butt he trend N has been well modeled today so far. How far North it can get remains to be seen so WE TRACK!!!

One thing that is intriguing is this development of the confluence being weaker and kicking east faster. This time tomorrow the pieces of energy should be in better but still not great sampling grid areas which will help a bit in guidance. WV loop is what we need to use once it comes into range of this to see what is what.






Hello, I had a question: From what I read in your post, there is a certain time when the pieces of energy come into better sampling areas. Where are these better sampling areas, and generally what is the time leading up to an event when the energies come into better sampling?
Thanks!

Good questions - the time frame is looking at Wednesday night and even into Thursday. Lead time is usually 72 hours they have a good sampling of the energies since the northern vorts/ energy is in such a sparce ROAB sampling region. Then we see what esle is in store for JET STREAK, weaknesses etc.

Lots of time with this one. Just wish we had a good N EPO and PNA - then we'd be rocking the Kazba - EPO woudl send in the cold and the PNA would help drive the storm up the coast if in a favorable position.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:25 pm

algae888 wrote:The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:35 pm

This storm keeps getting pushed back.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
algae888 wrote:The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.
Frank take a look again it has 16 in for DC 6 to 12 Southern New Jersey to Philly in a few inches here
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:15 pm

algae888 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
algae888 wrote:The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.
Frank take a look again it has 16 in for DC 6 to 12 Southern New Jersey to Philly in a few inches here

Here is the 12z GFS snow map valid for December 11th



Here is the 18z GFS for the same time frame


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
algae888 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
algae888 wrote:The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

The new GFS has snow into Virginia. Nothing north of there.
Frank take a look again it has 16 in for DC 6 to 12 Southern New Jersey to Philly in a few inches here

Here is the 12z GFS snow map valid for December 11th



Here is the 18z GFS for the same time frame


I think he means “new GFS” as in the FV3, Frank haha

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:47 pm

HOLY CHRIPS - NW LEAN??
33&rain TY


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by larryrock72 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:52 pm

According to 12z and 18z gfs on dec 11th ocean county nj is in the blue!!! Gonna get slammed!!! Lol!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:15 pm

Big shift in EPS peeps, let's see what the rest of the 0z and 6z suite does. SFC LP goes to OBX, probably from this look it can reach the delmarva latitude with the cofluence lifting out quicker. 
MJO phase 2 says the storm should come further North by 500mb maps of a phase 2 MJO. 
Well see & lots of time.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:16 pm

amugs wrote:Big shift in EPS peeps, let's see what the rest of the 0z and 6z suite does. SFC LP goes to OBX, probably from this look it can reach the delmarva latitude with the cofluence lifting out quicker. 
MJO phase 2 says the storm should come further North by 500mb maps of a phase 2 MJO. 
Well see & lots of time.

I've been harping on that confluence for day over modeled
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:25 pm

Guys I hate to break it to ya but that 32 degree line is way to far north and we will all see rain...psych AL LOL JK, I am aware by now that that means nothing, and if this happens it happens if it doesnt theres always next time. I am far to busy to be able to follow and stay up late nights anymore unless I know no work the next day (job needs to much of lightning reflexes and with no sleep I cannot be that functional LOL). So enjoy guys until its crunch time then maybe I will stay up, and I do want a storm especially during the week lol.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:28 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
amugs wrote:Big shift in EPS peeps, let's see what the rest of the 0z and 6z suite does. SFC LP goes to OBX, probably from this look it can reach the delmarva latitude with the cofluence lifting out quicker. 
MJO phase 2 says the storm should come further North by 500mb maps of a phase 2 MJO. 
Well see & lots of time.

I've been harping on that confluence for day over modeled
Do we really know this with any certainty even a sliver of it this far out I mean we are talking 180 hrs, I remember the days when I posted stuff that far out and you all laughed that was fantasyland, what happened now we get restless 1-2 weeks in advance? I am hoping it pushes north as much as the next guy, a early godzilla after a november record snowstorm will def make for a epic beginning to the season.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:08 pm

Definitely some improvements on the 0z GFS, good signs

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:58 am

00z EURO came in further north and has a 988 mb storm sitting just SE off the Delmarva Monday night. Laughing
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:34 am



Another Northwest shift. Let's not forget this is a Monday storm now
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:11 am

EPS is north of 00z EURO. 12 out of 50 members now have big hits in SNE.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:32 am


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:41 am

EPS Mean is clustered about 100 Miles S of the benchmark - we have plenty of time to correct this N as we just witnessed with the last 24hrs of teh 250 mile jump NW.

Again MJO phase 2 argues for a more N track that what we have - I 95 corridor storm.

The L's just off the top left of the green circle and a movement NNE would be magnificent if they then move NNE from there to just off Montauk!! Wishful, Hopeful and Praying!

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

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