Long Range Thread 17.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:03 pm

algae888 wrote:Great disco from Mount Holly

To be blunt, I am not buying
what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in
precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the
strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble
guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of
the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the
interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the
vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1)
force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models
tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to
develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern-
stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented
from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early
next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough,
suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important
feature.

With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and
large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases
of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often
are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern-
stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending
tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of
noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent
with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in
our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread
PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases
exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so
far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of
medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture

Although I do not agree with the forecast itself, this is truly a phenomenal discussion; probably the best I’ve ever read from a WFO, in all honesty. THIS is forecasting. THIS is what this field is all about and what exemplifies a true meteorologist in my opinion. Taking a stance, explaining why with reasoning, and following through. I have gained much respect for this office through the years, and that trend continues here. Thanks for posting, Al!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Snow88 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:01 pm

Slightly less confluence to the north on all the models but still the same result. I think this storm is done for the northern mid atlantic and northeast.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:02 am

rb here is this mornings disco from mt holly....

Focus with the medium-range forecast remains on the evolution of a
southern-stream system traversing the southeastern U.S. this weekend
before moving offshore early next week.

Operational models are beginning to converge on a solution for the
strong surface low that develops near the Gulf Coast this weekend.
The 00z CMC has trended farther south toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions, though it does remain on the northern fringe of the
guidance envelope. However, noticeable variability remains with the
northern-stream perturbations that will interact with the southern-
stream perturbation this weekend, particularly the predecessor
trough in eastern Canada late this weekend. Of particular note, the
00z ECMWF is most progressive with this trough, which acts to slow
the surface low near the Carolina coast Sunday night but also
prevents much poleward progress. The CMC/GFS are noticeably slower,
which allows the low to lift farther northward but also provides
more of a kick to the southern-stream perturbation on Monday. The
GFS has trended deeper and somewhat slower with the northern-stream
system in the past 24 hours, which suggests the ECMWF solution may
be a lower probability one.

Meanwhile, a second northern-stream perturbation digs south-
southeastward into the central plains on Sunday night, which adds
substantial complexity to the interactions of the southern-stream
surface low with the northern stream. Volatility with this
perturbation is very high run to run and model to model. Notably,
the GFS has trended slower and a little weaker with this second
northern-stream perturbation, which may be suggestive of a slower
push to the southern-stream system. Operational guidance seems to be
converging on a solution in which a secondary low develops on the
coast Monday night in vicinity of the first low 24 hours prior. The
model tendencies are similar to the first low (CMC farthest north;
ECMWF to the south), but the GFS is slower with this second low (an
obvious result of the slower trend to the central U.S. perturbation).

What does all of this mean? My conclusion is that the models
converging on a solution may be a tempting lure, but I am not biting
quite yet. The perturbations in play here remain offshore (prior to
the 00z simulations, anyway), so I suspect some decent
initialization errors are contributing to model volatility. Perhaps
as importantly, the complex interactions of these perturbations are
extremely sensitive to positioning/orientation/strength of the
individual phenomena, which is a telltale sign to use caution in the
use of deterministic solutions as a forecast starting point. I used
a healthy blend of continuity, ensemble guidance, and multi-model
consensus as a starting point, only subtly modifying the forecast to
account for the increased southern-track consensus. Finally, I
should note that we are still in the time window in which models
tend to be too far south and too progressive with the southern-
stream portion of these systems, so I maintained a broad-brush
approach to distribution of PoPs (and timing) as a result of the
remaining large uncertainty"
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:06 am

I must admit this is looking bleak for us. I still feel this moves north. how far though is the question as guidance has shifted well south the last few cycles. we need to see changes today otherwise this one will miss.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:48 am

Again, Al, thanks for posting the update!! Do you know if that was the same forecaster?? I think it was based on the verbiage, but again, epitamy of what being a meteorologist is all about. I love it!! If you’re gonna be wrong, it’s better to be wrong ONCE than make ten different forecasts and have only one verify. Obviously you have to be timely if you change, but you know what I’m getting at. Whoever that is, I hope they go places, because somebody like that would REALLY shake up that organization if in the right position haha

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:39 am

"Perhaps as importantly, the complex interactions of these perturbations are
extremely sensitive to positioning/orientation/strength of the
individual phenomena"

Isn't this exactly what happened the entire week before this year's Jan 4 blizzard? Forecasts of widespread 1-3 inches as late as the night before? Not saying that's happening here, but it's enough of a parallel for me to keep checking back here every half hour. lol.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:59 am

It is time to cut the cord on December 10th. The set-up aloft did not improve nearly as much as it had to in order for this to work out.



The western U.S./Canada ridge is displaced too far east, confluence remains over New England, and heights are flat along the east coast.

What you will also gather from this snapshot is the EPO region is entering positive territory. My concern is the trough in the North Pac will also keep the PNA negative has consequences on the flow downstream. A ridge centered over the midwest instead of the west will keep the axis of the trough too far east. Not particularly enthused with the pattern through mid-month. Maybe it turns around by the 20th or just before Christmas.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:03 am

I VIVIDLY remember a storm (just not the date) when I was younger and the Weather Channel was still relatively new. There was a big storm forming near the Florida Panhandle and it was forecast to miss us OTS. I saw on the weather models another Ball of energy falling into the US near Minnesota from Canada and thought to myself “wouldn’t that act to pull the other LP further north.” Sure enough within 24 hours that’s what happened and we got buried.

According to the NWS disco just posted there’s another ball of energy falling into the Midwest on the models sometime around Monday. Won’t this serve to do the same. As my example I remember?
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:04 am

Just saw Franks post as I made mine. Ef this crap. This is EXACTLY my fears I posted in the Banter thread last night. Time for a hiatus from the site for awhile. Bullcrap . Adios
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:09 am

syosnow94 wrote:I VIVIDLY remember a storm (just not the date) when I was younger and the Weather Channel was still relatively new.  There was a big storm forming near the Florida Panhandle and it was forecast to miss us OTS.  I saw on the weather models another Ball of energy falling into the US near Minnesota from Canada and thought to myself “wouldn’t that act to pull the other LP further north.”  Sure enough within 24 hours that’s what happened and we got buried.

According to the NWS disco just posted there’s another ball of energy falling into the Midwest on the models sometime around Monday. Won’t this serve to do the same. As my example I remember?

Here is the "ball" of energy located over Wisconsin you and the NWS are referring to on the GFS. This image is valid for Sunday afternoon.



And along the Gulf Coast you will see the southern energy from the sub-tropical jet stream. To your point, if these two entities came together (or phased) there would be a Godzilla coming up the coast. But look at the heights going up the east coast. They are pointed out to sea instead of showing a tracking into or just off the coast of NJ. This means the trough is too broad keeping heights flat. The reason your ball of energy is not pumping heights along the coast is because of all that energy near Maine. That huge PV-like energy in southeast Canada is to blame for that.

As mentioned a few days back - the pieces are there but we would need changes aloft to get a storm to come together. The changes never happened. It happens...onto the next one.


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by hyde345 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:53 am

Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by HectorO on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:21 am

hyde345 wrote:Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.

The future looks like more rain.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:39 am

HectorO wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.

The future looks like more rain.



Also Aresian and Jman I don’t see ANY FORECASTS AT ALL calling for snow down south never mind more than a foot. Literally none except for the smoky mountains.

Now I’ll take a vacation. This is the worst weather for snow lovers. Wasted cold
!!!!
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:43 pm

hyde345 wrote:Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.

Euro says "Not so fast young man"...

Still a long shot but perhaps a glimmer of hope.

Everyone keeps wanting to throw dirt on this storm's grave and it keeps popping a foot out. It's the meteorological Night Of The Living Dead!
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by mwilli5783 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:18 pm

"there comin for you barbara"(night of the living dead scene in the graveyard)

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:19 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.

Euro says "Not so fast young man"...

Still a long shot but perhaps a glimmer of hope.

Everyone keeps wanting to throw dirt on this storm's grave and it keeps popping a foot out. It's the meteorological Night Of The Living Dead!

What makes you say this? Honest question, by the way lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.

Euro says "Not so fast young man"...

Still a long shot but perhaps a glimmer of hope.

Everyone keeps wanting to throw dirt on this storm's grave and it keeps popping a foot out. It's the meteorological Night Of The Living Dead!

What makes you say this? Honest question, by the way lol

Phase happens a bit earlier, precip just about to Delmarva.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:28 pm

rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.

Euro says "Not so fast young man"...

Still a long shot but perhaps a glimmer of hope.

Everyone keeps wanting to throw dirt on this storm's grave and it keeps popping a foot out. It's the meteorological Night Of The Living Dead!

What makes you say this? Honest question, by the way lol

This made me LOL, Ahahaha. Thank you, Bob.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:59 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Now stick a fork in it, it's done. Hopefully we can get something after the 15th and before Christmas.

Euro says "Not so fast young man"...

Still a long shot but perhaps a glimmer of hope.

Everyone keeps wanting to throw dirt on this storm's grave and it keeps popping a foot out. It's the meteorological Night Of The Living Dead!

What makes you say this? Honest question, by the way lol

Phase happens a bit earlier, precip just about to Delmarva.

It's not all about the phase in this case. Check the increased compression of the heights across southeastern Canada and New England between last night's 00z and today's 12z runs:



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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:00 pm

As a side note: HOLY CRAP I GOT IT TO WORK!!!!! I FINALLY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY MADE A LOOP!!!! Ok, sorry for that lol but I could not figure this out for the life of me for the longest time ahaha

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:As a side note: HOLY CRAP I GOT IT TO WORK!!!!! I FINALLY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY MADE A LOOP!!!! Ok, sorry for that lol but I could not figure this out for the life of me for the longest time ahaha

Your young..your supposed to know this stuff told ya

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by dkodgis on Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:As a side note: HOLY CRAP I GOT IT TO WORK!!!!! I FINALLY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY MADE A LOOP!!!! Ok, sorry for that lol but I could not figure this out for the life of me for the longest time ahaha

Your young..your supposed to know this stuff told ya

OK now THAT got me laughing.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:52 pm

Oh wow so nice, I know its far off but next weekend 30 hrs of rain and not done on Euro putting down 5-6 inches+ some places, that could have been 50 inches of snow if it was today, just miserable for the weekend before the holiday weekend if its true. ....grrr



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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Oh wow so nice, I know its far off but next weekend 30 hrs of rain and not done on Euro putting down 5-6 inches+ some places, that could have been 50 inches of snow if it was today, just miserable for the weekend before the holiday weekend if its true. ....grrr



. Just quickly checked in. Wish I didn’t...........You watch Jman. Everyone harps a pattern and we get the cold and go 0/2 but when the forecast 8-10 days out is for rain it’ll verify perfectly. Amazing how that happens. How about next weekends storm gets suppressed a few hundred miles south too. Nah. No chance
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:02 pm

The one positive from the NAM today was each run has the confluence moving out a little bit quicker and has allowed for a couple of ticks north at 18 and 0z. Something to watch tomorrow, but obviously it probably won't be enough to get it up here

0z tonight



0z last night


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