Long Range Thread 17.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:As a side note: HOLY CRAP I GOT IT TO WORK!!!!! I FINALLY HAVE SUCCESSFULLY MADE A LOOP!!!! Ok, sorry for that lol but I could not figure this out for the life of me for the longest time ahaha

Your young..your supposed to know this stuff told ya

Do NOT let my actual age fool you; I was born in the wrong decade lol shoulda been born about 50 years ago if you consider my taste in music and technological ineptitude, and about 80 years ago if you consider my overall mentality (at least the little mature portion that I have) aha

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Oh wow so nice, I know its far off but next weekend 30 hrs of rain and not done on Euro putting down 5-6 inches+ some places, that could have been 50 inches of snow if it was today, just miserable for the weekend before the holiday weekend if its true. ....grrr



. Just quickly checked in. Wish I didn’t...........You watch Jman. Everyone harps a pattern and we get the cold and go 0/2 but when the forecast 8-10 days out is for rain it’ll verify perfectly. Amazing how that happens. How about next weekends storm gets suppressed a few hundred miles south too. Nah. No chance

Both of you, calm down lol I have a post in another forum that I will bring over tomorrow (provided that I have the time) that will at least raise some eyebrows. Ok? Not saying that it’s gonna happen, but it is quite interesting to me nonetheless. Screw it, I’m awake. Give me 20 minutes lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:44 pm




Ignoring 850's, and again, only at face value, this to me appears to be setting for one of those "sneaky events", where we get lulled to sleep by the looks aloft. Obviously, that first system depicted by the anomalies over and east of the Mid-Atlantic would be warm. The origins of that eastern Canadian ridging are Maritime in nature. BUT, what draws my attention here is what's coming in BEHIND it. Yes, I see the negatives pushing onshore of the West Coast, which would limit the duration of the PNA spike, but in this type of setup, I would argue that that is PRECISELY what you would want. As the system deepens and progresses off the Mid-Atlantic, it will continue to tilt negative, thereby enhancing geopotential height rises downstream. However, as the height field becomes increasingly negatively tilted, you will not only start cooling the warmth spread across Canada via warm advection processes by means of the lower-level snow/cold feedback, but you will also start to draw surface high pressure west-northwestward. In exact coordination and timed progression, the PNA ridge would be collapsing eastward. This becomes important, because it's effects are two-fold:

1. By synchronizing the retrogression of the eastern Canadian ridging with the progression of the western Canadian ridging, this would work to rapidly enhance higher low-level pressures to the northwest across southern and central Canada. Noting the decaying warmth of the Maritime airmass thanks to the aforementioned lower-level feedback, and also now drawing some influence from a truer Continental airmass, the further mixing of these two would allow a marginally cold to measurably below-normal airmass to start becoming established to our north, which would then start being tapped via cold advection on the backside of our departing Mid-Atlantic system as well as through the developing pressure perturbations in response to the larger pattern (building pressure to the north, lowering pressures to the south, covered below).

2. Note the evidence of the shortwave(s) between the PNA and eastern Canadian ridging. As the two ridges are forced to merge, there's only one direction for that shortwave/those shortwaves to go - south and/or southeastward right on the heels of the lead wave and in the developing underbelly of the ridging. Seeing as though this wave/these waves would have origins in higher latitudes, it would provide an initial shot of a fresh Arctic injection to the system likely developing across the central Mississippi Valley at this time, with further enhancement of higher pressures to the north in its/their wake. With the non-traditional (though workable) blocking evolving to the north and northeast, this secondary feature/these secondary features would be forced along a similar trajectory as the first wave, BUT WITH AN AVAILABLE AND FRESHLY DEVELOPING COLD AIR SOURCE. Seeing evidence of an active Sub-tropical jet, as evidenced by the tongue of neutral height anomalies into and off the western coast of Mexico, this would have the potential to end up as another phased system, and with the cold air seemingly available to work with, and the dynamics that this pattern suggests would be in play, if you're looking for a way to end a windswept rain in December with a bang, well, this is certainly one way to draw it up in my opinion.

Again, this is OLY AT FACE VALUE WITH NO OTHER SYNOPTIC, GLOBAL, OR HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS PERFORMED, SO PLEASE DON'T TAKE THIS TO HEART, but that's the type of evolution that I see here, and the reason why it has a lot of my interest right now for our next potential.



Green: progression of initial Mid-Atlantic wave and ridging
Blue: progression of following wave(s) and Sub-tropical disturbance/jet
Purple: HYPOTHETICAL location of rapidly maturing cyclone

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:54 pm

Just for fun, and no, I swear I didn't look at this beforehand......check the progression of the Euro Control at H5:







Then we start setting up for the next one lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:15 pm

Some interesting analysis Ray. The pig ridge in Canada isn't ideal, but the scenario you laid out makes sense. I'm not enthused...yet.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Some interesting analysis Ray. The pig ridge in Canada isn't ideal, but the scenario you laid out makes sense. I'm not enthused...yet.

I wouldn’t say I’m enthused either, but it’s an interesting idea to entertain. Now, I only briefly looked at the other ensembles and their progressions are different, so this analysis would only be relevant to this particular ensemble under the assumption that it’s correct. But I haven’t been able to dig into discovering whether or not this or the others is/are correct yet relative to the global, Hemispheric, and synoptic evolutions. I just dealt with what was at hand haha

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:26 pm

If the euro was taken seriously there will be a period on next sat with heavy rain and wing gusts as high as 80mph on the coast 55 to 70mph everywhere else. Yes not go happen but something is brewing. But syo ya book it of course it will be rain if anything. Make it snow and wind gusts that high with 2.5qpf and he'll to the yeah.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:32 am

I do not have time to elaborate now, but the period from December 16th/17th through the 19th/20th is starting to really acquire my attention for our next possible wintry threat, and I am expecting that we may start to see more wintry runs in coming days. The crux of my argument presented last evening remains, and is present on all ensemble guidance; however, when we account for the stochastic reaction of the atmospheric streamflow in accordance with @Isotherm‘s progged evolution, we should see wavelengths shorten such that it results in a mean maintenance and then proliferation of western NAMER ridging at a key time. I will go into detail in coming days, provided my thinking remains unchanged, and nobody elaborates before I can get back to it haha

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:08 am

rb924119 wrote:I do not have time to elaborate now, but the period from December 16th/17th through the 19th/20th is starting to really acquire my attention for our next possible wintry threat, and I am expecting that we may start to see more wintry runs in coming days. The crux of my argument presented last evening remains, and is present on all ensemble guidance; however, when we account for the stochastic reaction of the atmospheric streamflow in accordance with @Isotherm‘s progged evolution, we should see wavelengths shorten such that it results in a mean maintenance and then proliferation of western NAMER ridging at a key time. I will go into detail in coming days, provided my thinking remains unchanged, and nobody elaborates before I can get back to it haha

Love ya kid but do the majority of us here a solid please

ENGLISH NEXT TIME
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:41 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I do not have time to elaborate now, but the period from December 16th/17th through the 19th/20th is starting to really acquire my attention for our next possible wintry threat, and I am expecting that we may start to see more wintry runs in coming days. The crux of my argument presented last evening remains, and is present on all ensemble guidance; however, when we account for the stochastic reaction of the atmospheric streamflow in accordance with @Isotherm‘s progged evolution, we should see wavelengths shorten such that it results in a mean maintenance and then proliferation of western NAMER ridging at a key time. I will go into detail in coming days, provided my thinking remains unchanged, and nobody elaborates before I can get back to it haha

Love ya kid but do the majority of us here a solid please

ENGLISH NEXT TIME

Ok, syo - think of the global pattern setting up the big cutter that’s coming ~ December 13th-15th as like a giant rubber band that is being stretched.......HARD. Eventually, once the force of the rubber band’s inherent resistance (in our case, the overwhelming support for cold to begin re-establishing its dominance for our region of the globe, as well as others), the rubber band forcefully retracts almost instantly into a more relaxed and stable state to relieve the extreme tension (with the actual band having individual ridge/trough features just like our atmosphere. The problem is, even though we cannot exclusively predict where these individual features will wind up around the rubber band (our atmosphere), we can still make an educated guess about the most probable locations/configurations based on other atmospheric drivers and enhancers. Based on my analysis, I think the configuration should develop such that we see a more robust western North American ridge than is being currently depicted, which would allow energy/energies from northern latitudes to slip southward into the U.S. behind the cutter and west/under of the large Eastern North American ridging and provide us an opportunity at a wintry event. This would also then work to help re-establish a more stable and perpetual colder than normal regime during the following week, which would be further supported by the natural recovery of our atmospheric rubber band into a more stable and “relaxed” state, as the “tension” would be relaxed.

The stochastic reaction and sudden shortening of wavelengths would be the atmosphere’s “retraction” and reaction to the force applying the “tension” to the rubber band finally being overcome by the forcing mechanisms supporting the return of cold air. We will still go through a period of flux, as the atmosphere is much larger scale than a rubber band, but this of reaction can lead to sneaky events and even more model chaos, especially at longer leads. That’s why I’m not too worried that the type of evolution I am seeing in my head (earlier post) isn’t really consistent, although, the GFS and CMC/GEM Operationals have been very close in recent runs. This is something that I don’t to expect to start showing up consistently outside of five to six days. Stochastic reactions like this, especially of the magnitude we will be seeing this time around, are overwhelmingly difficult for models to predict. We have to TRUST THE PROCESS here and rely on intuition to get us to the hypothesized result Smile I’ll be able to discuss further starting tomorrow, though.

Make a little more sense?


Last edited by rb924119 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:46 pm

Yes much better. Thanks
Buddy
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Yes much better. Thanks
Buddy

Please re-read.......I made some edits lol

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:53 pm

You either have a very”special mind” or you’re pretty bored
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:09 pm

syosnow94 wrote:You either have a very”special mind” or you’re pretty bored

Why do you say that? Lmao

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:13 pm

You want to know how bad the upper level features are for mid-December?  Take a look at the Day 9 12/8 12Z EURO OP.  It has a surface low right near the 40/70 benchmark and a surface high in the upper midwest:



Normally in mid-December when we have those in place, it means we do the snow dance.  But take a look at the 850 mb temps and the 500 mb height anomalies:





These features are hostile for I-95 snowstorms.  If this were to verify verbatim, it would be a coastal rainstorm with ice well north and west.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by rb924119 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:26 pm

Math23x7 wrote:You want to know how bad the upper level features are for mid-December?  Take a look at the Day 9 12/8 12Z EURO OP.  It has a surface low right near the 40/70 benchmark and a surface high in the upper midwest:



Normally in mid-December when we have those in place, it means we do the snow dance.  But take a look at the 850 mb temps and the 500 mb height anomalies:





These features are hostile for I-95 snowstorms.  If this were to verify verbatim, it would be a coastal rainstorm with ice well north and west.

No doubt about it, Mike, and I agree 100%. BUT, remember, my focus is on the system FOLLOWING the system you highlighted here. The one you mention above is the same one that I stated, in no uncertain terms, will be warm. For everybody. The source of the ridging out ahead of it has the wrong source region, and the synoptic environment is incredibly hostile otherwise. However, I think the evolution of this first system and its effects in the context of the overall synoptic evolution will yield a winter storm chance on its heels, as described in my earlier post. In the H5 anomaly image above, it would be associated with the anomaly over the Ohio Valley Smile

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Vinnydula on Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:13 pm

Sref are really north. For tomorrow.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:24 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I do not have time to elaborate now, but the period from December 16th/17th through the 19th/20th is starting to really acquire my attention for our next possible wintry threat, and I am expecting that we may start to see more wintry runs in coming days. The crux of my argument presented last evening remains, and is present on all ensemble guidance; however, when we account for the stochastic reaction of the atmospheric streamflow in accordance with @Isotherm‘s progged evolution, we should see wavelengths shorten such that it results in a mean maintenance and then proliferation of western NAMER ridging at a key time. I will go into detail in coming days, provided my thinking remains unchanged, and nobody elaborates before I can get back to it haha

Love ya kid but do the majority of us here a solid please

ENGLISH NEXT TIME

I highlighted the important part. See above.

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by mwilli5783 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:41 pm

PLEEEEESE....there i said it

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 Yesterday at 6:57 am

To all who are checking in looking for the next ray of hope for winter weather potential.....the next 10-14days will be "tough" in a sense that there likely wont be much in the way of excitement if your looking for a pretty snow map on the weather models.  That said as Ray(rb) outlined there are a couple of possibilities for wintery events within this time frame.  The bottom line is, and there is no way around this, the pattern of below normal temps we have been in for the past 30-60days is reshuffling a little such that the CONUS will be flooded with Pacific, and modified pacific air.  No bear in mind that this does not mean that we cant snow but overall we will likely be in AN temp as a whole for the next 2weeks.  But please keep in mind as has been the case since late Sept early Oct the AN temp projections have been shorter duration and intensity in reality vs the medium and LR model projections.  I expect this same thing coming up.  

Now beyond the next 14days is where things really begin to get interesting.  The time frame I am looking at in somewhere after the 21st-25th for us to shift back to below normal temp regime with at least 1-2 chances for snow as we cross into 2019 as we likely see the return of the sub Aleutian vortex, -EPO, and possibly +PNA/-AO/-NAO or some combinations of high lat blocking.  

The reason for this optimism comes in the form of a serious stratospheric vortex shake up.  There have been several minor perturbations thus far this season leading to the direct result of an overall BN temp regime for much of the nation over the last few months.  This upcoming stratospheric disruption looks to be the strongest thus far.  The potential for an official sudden strat warming event(SSWE) is possible which could set the stage for a more prolonged period, on the order of several weeks, of cold and snow chances as we head into Jan.  If not an official SSWE it looks likely that at the least "a near miss" which would still likley disrupt the Strat PV enough to allow for the potential to return to cold and snow chances down here on the surface in the east.  Ironically its the less than ideal/crappy next 10-14days that seems to be the precursor to such an event.  So like taking medicine we will have to swallow it reluctantly; however, knowing that after the course of medicine is finished healthier times lie ahead.  

I will end with this.  Even with an extremely disrupted strat polar vortex, and or an official SSWE the NE CONUS still could end up unfavorable overall; however, the odds of a BN temp regime and winter weather threats increases drastically.  The odds of a near miss sswe/official sswe are extremely high as of this writing to end this year so remain cautiously optimistic as we move forward.  Happy Sunday

WE TRACK!!     What a Face

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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 Yesterday at 11:04 am

Thanks Scott and I hear you but I have to be honest. I have. Zero trust the LR crew and forecasts. I PROMISE I mean no disrespect to anyone but these last 10 days weather wise have really taken a toll. Even if you’re forecast verifies we will have gone an entire month and a half with no snow even after most forecasters on here were calling for a memorable December.

It’s been memorable alright. COMING IFF ONE IFVTHE WETTEST 4 MONTH PERIODS ON RECORD AND TONS OF COLD AIR AND GREAT FORECASTS WE GOT THIS. UGAAAATZ. And now it’s ginna rain hard you watch.

Again I love you boys but I’ll pass


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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by docstox12 Yesterday at 11:14 am

syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Scott and I hear you but I have to be honest. I have. I trust the LR crew and forecasts. I PROMISE I mean no disrespect to anyone but these last 10 days weather wise have really taken a toll. Even if you’re forecast verifies we will have gone an entire month and a half with no snow even after most forecasters on here were calling for a memorable December.

It’s been memorable alright. COMING IFF ONE IFVTHE WETTEST 4 MONTH PERIODS ON RECORD AND TONS OF COLD AIR AND GREAT FORECASTS WE GOT THIS. UGAAAATZ. And now it’s ginna rain hard you watch.

Again I love you boys but I’ll pass

Jimmy, I agree, it's a kick in the head but all we can do is wait for the re set as our Long Range crew mentions and then hope for better in January.We still have Jan, Feb and March, and March was memorable last year.My personal peeve is dry cold conditions.I hate paying extra heating bills with no snow to show for it.Last month was ok because we had 11 inches on November 15th.I also don't mind the dry cold going into the Christmas Season as it sets the mood.
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by sroc4 Yesterday at 11:19 am

syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Scott and I hear you but I have to be honest. I have. I trust the LR crew and forecasts. I PROMISE I mean no disrespect to anyone but these last 10 days weather wise have really taken a toll. Even if you’re forecast verifies we will have gone an entire month and a half with no snow even after most forecasters on here were calling for a memorable December.

It’s been memorable alright. COMING IFF ONE IFVTHE WETTEST 4 MONTH PERIODS ON RECORD AND TONS OF COLD AIR AND GREAT FORECASTS WE GOT THIS. UGAAAATZ. And now it’s ginna rain hard you watch.

Again I love you boys but I’ll pass


Jimmy jimmy jimmy. Come on man. Why is it that your expectations are always So high? Why is it that even though it is pointed out the potential for snow it is also pointed out that it won’t work out but for some reason you appear to fail to recognize the “it might not work” part of long range forecasts. Also.... It’s December 9th for the love of Gawd.

Between now and Christmas I want you to every morning sit Indian style, put you thumb to your index finger on both hands, turn your palms up to the heaveans, place your hands on top of your knees, close your eyes, and repeat after me....

GooseFraba

GooseFraba

GooseFraba

Ahhhohhhmmmeeeeeeee

Ahhhhoooihhhhhmmmmeeee

Now take a deep breath in through the nose....And out through the mouth. Repeat this 3 times every morning until Christmas.

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"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
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WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
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WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by syosnow94 Yesterday at 11:30 am

I know it’s early. I hate high expectations that crap out and I hate “wasting” 2 weeks of 10 degrees below average cold after an extremely wet few months. Kick in the balls tough to swallow

As far as the namaste goosefraba crap I don’t roll that way

You know I love ya bud but this sucks
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Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

Post by Grselig Yesterday at 11:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Scott and I hear you but I have to be honest. I have. I trust the LR crew and forecasts. I PROMISE I mean no disrespect to anyone but these last 10 days weather wise have really taken a toll. Even if you’re forecast verifies we will have gone an entire month and a half with no snow even after most forecasters on here were calling for a memorable December.

It’s been memorable alright. COMING IFF ONE IFVTHE WETTEST 4 MONTH PERIODS ON RECORD AND TONS OF COLD AIR AND GREAT FORECASTS WE GOT THIS. UGAAAATZ. And now it’s ginna rain hard you watch.

Again I love you boys but I’ll pass


Jimmy jimmy jimmy. Come on man. Why is it that your expectations are always So high?  Why is it that even though it is pointed out the potential for snow it is also pointed out that it won’t work out but for some reason you appear to fail to recognize the “it might not work” part of long range forecasts. Also.... It’s December 9th for the love of Gawd.

Between now and Christmas I want you to every morning sit Indian style, put you thumb to your index finger on both hands, turn your palms up to the heaveans, place your hands on top of your knees, close your eyes,  and repeat after me....

GooseFraba

GooseFraba

GooseFraba

Ahhhohhhmmmeeeeeeee

Ahhhhoooihhhhhmmmmeeee

Now take a deep breath in through the nose....And out through the mouth. Repeat this 3 times every morning until Christmas.  


Umm great analysis. Just note that in your comments you said Indian Style. It's been changed to Chris Cross Applesauce. So please tell a grown man to sit Chris Cross Applesauce with a straight face.
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