Long Range Thread 17.0

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:43 am

Keep in mind that the energy that will be our system is still well out in the Pac. and the energy that is the steering mechanism aka creates the confluence/N Trough is just now into N Canada.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 00z10


Here is the energy that will be our system in 36hrs....still just coming ashore.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf_46


A few other comments. 1st the GFS although has shifted back to a more strung out system at 06z it has also been the most inconsistent with many of these features from run to run so for now I trust the least. While the GFS may have shifted to a more sheared out system at 500mb the NAM has not. It still shows a stronger more consolidated system over the heartland of the nation at 500mb. GFS vs NAM

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Gfs_z500_vort_us_15
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Namconus_z500_vort_us_53

Recall the discussion yest morning when I compared 00z Jan 8th to 12z Jan 7th. Specifically regarding the strength and positioning of the N Trough and the strength and positioning of the S energy and how far N it can make it. While it still has a ways to go for a "significant event, the euro conts to slow and steady tick more positive. The 3 images below are valid for the same time frame 12z Jan 13th. Pay attention to the trend for the N Trough to shift N&W with successive runs and the S energy to be a tad stronger, more consolidated, and allowed to trend N along the coast. Again its subtle but steady. Remember subtle shift at this level in the atmosphere can pay big dividends at the surface.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 00z_eu11
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 12z_eu11
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 00z_ja10


Here is the snow map for the euro at a 15:1 ratio. This will be a high ratio event. As high as 15:1-25:1 even in central to southern NJ. 925-850mb temps look to be -5 to -9 across the board and surface temps in the twenties while any precip moves in. Those ratios would only go down if the storm track makes a significant shift towards the BM, but if that happens the amt of QPF significantly goes up as well which would easily compensate for a shift down in ratio. CP if your reading you are absolutely correct in keeping of the mind set of having to deal with virga and no snow but it aint ova for you boys and gals yet either to the N. Honestly even NYC and N should at least consider that. CNJ on south looks like they could be in for a decent high ratio event to kick this winter off.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Ecmwf_47





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Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:45 am

new thread

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:07 pm

Whatever happens this weekend, those LR forecasts are looking juicy, esp that 18-20 threat that RB has been touting

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Post by HectorO on Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:19 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Whatever happens this weekend, those LR forecasts are looking juicy, esp that 18-20 threat that RB has been touting

Please lets not go down this road again with long range lol. Let's all wait and see.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:53 pm

Ha ha, no disrespect Hector, but no can do on that tone it down request. I can’t help myself...and even the Closet Warmacist himself is giddy on this one!

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Post by Grselig on Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:16 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Ha ha, no disrespect Hector, but no can do on that tone it down request. I can’t help myself...and even the Closet Warmacist himself is giddy on this one!

Dangerous admission SENJ. Dangerous
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Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:52 pm

Ha ha...and whoa...that wasn't an admission b/c I wasn't referring to myself. It was an accusation leveled at someone else...ha ha any guesses who?

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Post by Grselig on Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:58 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Ha ha...and whoa...that wasn't an admission b/c I wasn't referring to myself. It was an accusation leveled at someone else...ha ha any guesses who?

Ha. Apologies! Sorry!!!! There are a few closeted individuals! I can’t guess If I’m wrong reputations will be destroyed!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:08 am

Looking ahead, we are going to remain pretty cold through next week. Our next possible storm threat is next weekend. I am not enthusiastic about the upper level pattern but there are reasons to be interested.

Here are the GEFS valid Saturday night (19th)

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40

Check out the huge PV over the Hudson in Canada. As the PV presses southward it compresses heights in SE Canada. You can see the very tight gradient there into northern New England. Notice the dip in the flow (trough) over the southeast U.S. That is our next storm threat moving east-northeast.

Because of the anomalous PV pressing south I do not see a scenario where any storm system tries cutting to our west. But - also look at the western U.S. It is quite a disaster, with trough entering the PAC NW. This will angle the flow in a way that would have any storm try to track toward the Ohio Valley / Mid-Atlantic which raises heights too much along the east coast, promoting rain instead of snow.

What we need to see happen is for the PV to press south even further, or more a ridge to develop over the western U.S. to turn the flow more favorable for us. Given the way things have gone this winter I would keep your expectations low. But next weekend, rain or snow, is the next storm threat. The work week will be quite and cold.


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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:12 am

Forgot to mention - the PNA may not look great, but the cut-off EPO ridge is a nice sight to see. This feature alone has a chance to compress heights downstream across Canada into the eastern CONUS. This will be the thing to watch with model runs this weekend into next week. If this EPO ridge is as anomalous as models say, the storm will gradually shifts its track east over time which prevents heights from rising too much along the coast.

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Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:15 am

Yes Frank doesn't look too promising. if you go back several days the GFS had a nice positive PNA Ridge over the Northwest US not another trough entering the Northwest as it shows now. Until the Pacific gets its act together we can close the shades for a while especially if the Nao doesn't go negative as was shown on the GEFS and the geps. The EPS always had troughs entering the northwest guess it will be correct.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:47 pm

Noob question in terms of my weather knowledge so please bear with me.

A lot seems to be made of the MJO location, but to me it almost seems like that is not a primary driver of weather but rather, perhaps, an additional aid or amplifier when other conditions are on the table. Is this an accurate statement? That the MJO and its phases in and of itself does not have the ability to drive weather patterns but will act in conjunction with other factors to amplify (or perhaps mute as the case may be) the pattern?
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:10 pm

Ensembles, including the EURO, really like the storm threat next weekend. The -EPO will work in our favor. Lets hope we don't lose this signal.

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Post by mikeypizano on Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:53 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Ensembles, including the EURO, really like the storm threat next weekend. The -EPO will work in our favor. Lets hope we don't lose this signal.

I have a feeling we will lose it... Mad
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:42 am

This is the type of signal you start seeing from ensembles when they're picking up on something legitimate:

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Gfs-en12
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Screen16
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Screen17
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Screen18

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:10 am

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 058a9310
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 Cf7a8c10

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:04 am

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 5c382910
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 38 5c382911
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:44 am

If there is a storm looking at those euro ensembles there will be a coastal cutoff a sharp on as usual. I'm keeping my expectations at dry and cold to rain. If I see a big snowstorm then I will be pleasantly surprised.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:51 am

jmanley32 wrote:If there is a storm looking at those euro ensembles there will be a coastal cutoff a sharp on as usual. I'm keeping my expectations at dry and cold to rain. If I see a big snowstorm then I will be pleasantly surprised.

Sound thinking for this winter.

Expect little, get less.
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Post by algae888 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:55 am

well after the meltdown by me and many others yesterday, the long range and I mean right thru February look as good as it can get on the ensembles and weeklies. I still do not trust them yet as we have been let down to many times this winter so far. signal is there for rb's time frame and more after that one. last nights OP are cutters but ensembles are cold and snowy for the 20th time frame on all guidance. models should have a better handle on it by Monday. still a big disappointment that the first 50 days of met winter were as bad as it can get.
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Post by algae888 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:07 am

while the mid atlantic will have cashed in on two systems so far this winter, I wouldn't want to live there if this new pattern holds. it doesn't look like suppression to me as we will have a cutoff epo ridge with a nuetral pna as the stj crashes into it. vortex over Hudson bay so very cold over Canada but no real mechanism to plunge bitter arctic air south. gradient like pattern with very cold up north so storms should impact us and it should be cold enough (late jan) for us to get snow. mid atlantic well probably not.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:30 am

jmanley32 wrote:If there is a storm looking at those euro ensembles there will be a coastal cutoff a sharp on as usual. I'm keeping my expectations at dry and cold to rain. If I see a big snowstorm then I will be pleasantly surprised.

The latest GFS shows a major rainstorm for around the 20th I think the polar vortex is our problem right now
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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:43 am

Thx RB skins and Al for the updates and for some continued basis for optimism.

Ground hog day and the definition of insanity jump to mind as I start to embrace the optimism. So here I am, having a bit of s standoff with my own optimism this morning. Hmmm...I’ll just have some coffee and see how this plays itself it out.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:46 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Thx RB skins and Al for the updates and for some continued basis for optimism.

Ground hog day and the definition of insanity jump to mind as I start to embrace the optimism. So here I am, having a bit of s standoff with my own optimism this morning. Hmmm...I’ll just have some coffee and see how this plays itself it out.

The problem I'm having is we keep saying long-range long-range looks good but we have to be honest
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:57 am

algae888 wrote:while the mid atlantic will have cashed in on two systems so far this winter, I wouldn't want to live there if this new pattern holds. it doesn't look like suppression to me as we will have a cutoff epo ridge with a nuetral pna as the stj crashes into it. vortex over Hudson bay so very cold over Canada but no real mechanism to plunge bitter arctic air south. gradient like pattern with very cold up north so storms should impact us and it should be cold enough (late jan) for us to get snow. mid atlantic well probably not.

Who cares about the Mid Atlantic. No offense to them and with all due respect but F them. If you want snow in the winter consistently don't live in the mid Atantic. Do I sound annoyed and bitter? I am.
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