MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:36 pm

Getting word of a failed ERC. Could keep her from regaining Cat 4 strength before landfall. Lets hope

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:43 pm

If this sharp turn to the west latest models are showing is real the storm surge will be destructive. It is Sandy-esque in a sense. They're better off hoping it a normal northwesterly track, while still bad, won't be AS bad.


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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:46 pm

Are these people trying to commit suicide?


Jamie Mitchem
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Up to 200 people decided to stay on Ocracoke Island, NC. There is no road to the island, ferry service has now stopped, emergency response has now stopped. They have decided to stay on an island that might go underwater. Don't be that person.

12:37 PM - Sep 12, 2018
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:54 pm

Probably I have visited ocracke and it flooded in a normal rain storm...when I heard this morning that many were staying..I thought wow..how crazy..what are you going to do to save your house when a 10 plus wall of water coming at you
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:52 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Probably I have visited ocracke and it flooded in a normal rain storm...when I heard this morning that many were staying..I thought wow..how crazy..what are you going to do to save your house when a 10 plus wall of water coming at you

Those people are gonna party it up and be so drunk that they literally won’t know what hit them. Kind of cool in a way
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:21 pm

My former next door neighbors moved down to a town called Frisco, NC which is not far from Ocracoke Island. When i texted them yesterday to ask if they evacuated yet, I was told that they decided to ride the storm out with a newly bought generator. Thats insane!!! The wife and I went down there just this past July to visit them. I pray to god it won't be the last. Edit: My avatar just so happens to be a picture taken a couple of months ago of me and my wife on a ferry out at Ocracoke Island.


Last edited by nutleyblizzard on Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:26 pm

Just heard a MET on TV say Florence is gonna bring 6 inches of rain up here middle of next week. Could it BE we actually get a taste of her?! Laughing
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:40 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Just heard a MET on TV say Florence is gonna bring 6 inches of rain up here middle of next week. Could it BE we actually get a taste of her?! Laughing

A week out? Really? Too early imo, she also has had a lot of dry air come in the south side, down to 115 mph winds...

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:24 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Just heard a MET on TV say Florence is gonna bring 6 inches of rain up here middle of next week. Could it BE we actually get a taste of her?! Laughing
6 inches of rain , no wind? I will pass, sick and tired of rain.  It feels like it has rained more days than not since may. And what channel was that?
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:28 pm

Did anyone see what happens with the euro at hr 168, remnants intensify to a 994mb LP over the northeast giving us rain and wind.
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by aiannone on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:33 pm

Hey guys! Sorry I have been so distant. Been busy all summer between work and studying for the CPA. I am back up in Binghamton getting my masters in accounting. Will be finished in May. Currently have 3 parts out of 4 of the CPA exam passed. Plan on finishing the last part before thanksgiving! After that I will have a lot more free time to return to weather, although of course I have always been quietly tracking and enjoying the weather. Sorry for being distant. Will check in as time permits, the CPA exam studying really takes my time away haha! Hope all is well with all of you!
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:41 pm

Down to 115 mph and possibly no NC landfall. Ouch if she doesn’t make a direct hit and weakens. It’ll be good for the residents but bad for meteorologists
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by oldtimer on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:48 pm

Syo. The way it looks now it will be Cat 2 at 11pm

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:50 pm

oldtimer wrote:Syo. The way it looks now it will be Cat 2 at 11pm
Mthank goidness for those people. The rain is going to be insane though. Tons of flooding. But there’s a HUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference between a cat 4 and a cat 2. This is why people ignore warnings evacuation warnings and choose to ride it out.
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Down to 115 mph and possibly no NC landfall. Ouch if she doesn’t make a direct hit and weakens. It’ll be good for the residents but bad for meteorologists

It sure will be close to the border, but NC still gets crushed.. NE Quadrant most dangerous... it still needs to cross over warm waters of gulf stream and there is less shear closer to the coast..

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:54 pm

CrankyWeather gotta be pissed. He was shutting on the EURO and it wound up being right again
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:01 pm

oldtimer wrote:Syo. The way it looks now it will be Cat 2 at 11pm

Air recon in there now, still recording Cat 3 winds at about 115 mph, pressure at 956

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by bloc1357 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:09 pm

Could just be the shape has changed but the last couple frames looks like it is moving NNW not NW....could just be some eye trickery

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:12 pm

Reorganizing pretty well the past hour or so. Sheer seems to have minimized and there was an almost immediate response. If this continues I would not bet against it holding at cat 3 strength. At this latitude not sure about strengthening but the gulf stream could help it a bit as well.

Such a strange and wonderful randomness to it's evolution. Pretty humbling for all concerned I should think. Still so much to learn about these.
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:13 pm

bloc1357 wrote:Could just be the shape has changed but the last couple frames looks like it is moving NNW not NW....could just be some eye trickery

Nope. It’s been doing it all day.  Another fantastic video by Levi

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:00 pm

11 PM Advisory now a Cat 2

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by Snow88 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:01 pm

Pressure now up to 957mb
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by mwilli5783 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:16 pm

storm is wimping out,dry air got in from the south side of the storm disrupting the eye wall also looks like it shifted to a north-northwest now

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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by docstox12 on Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:37 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Are these people trying to commit suicide?


Jamie Mitchem
@DrMitchem
Up to 200 people decided to stay on Ocracoke Island, NC. There is no road to the island, ferry service has now stopped, emergency response has now stopped. They have decided to stay on an island that might go underwater. Don't be that person.

12:37 PM - Sep 12, 2018
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Reminds me of a group of people back in, I think ,1969 who decided to ride out a hurricane in a three story cinderblock Motel a block away from the Gulf in Mississippi or Alabama.They all died.These are the risks people have to live with when they choose to live near the ocean in hurricane prone areas.Foolishly risking your life is just plain suicidal.
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

Post by docstox12 on Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:39 am

mwilli5783 wrote:storm is wimping out,dry air got in from the south side of the storm disrupting the eye wall also looks like it shifted to a north-northwest now

This is very good news! Hope that trend continues before landfall.Anyway, Lee Goldberg mentioned an interesting fact that very few deaths are caused by the wind but many more by storm surge and heavy rain flooding.
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Re: MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

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