October 2018 Observations & Discussions

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:05 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Winds are picking up on coast. Weathermom that 56 is close to you
good morning skins...that 56 I thought was closer to you..I live in between the 50 and the Hook...we had one or too really big gusts that woke me around the time you posted..but that has been it. I even slept in today.lol.the wind is not so bad..at least not yet..have to check my station...
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:11 am

Holy Beach erosion winds easily gusting 45-50mph here at the beach.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:13 am

I'm yawwwwning here in Coastal Westchester. Barely raining with intermittent 30 mph gusts Rolling Eyes
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Vinnydula on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:18 am

Cold rain. Seem kind of boring here.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:25 am

Very windy by me with light rain .north east wind 34mph with gust out of 48mph.what ever happened to the heavy rain we were so post to get

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:30 am

Rain and 45* here. Breezy but not excessively so. We had some very strong wind gusts that woke me up around 5 or 6 this morning, but now only NE at 16 gusting to 25. I’m probably going to end up with about an inch of rain here when all is said and done.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:33 am

Unbelievable 3 hrs till the supposed strongest winds are over and there hasn't been anything. Kudos to those that said no mixing down. And its pretty much stopped raining too. Wow what a nor Easter lol
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:35 am

frank 638 wrote:Very windy by me with light rain .north east wind 34mph with gust out of 48mph.what ever happened to the heavy rain we were so post to get
I had heavy rain overnight. Looking at radar it looks like the heaviest bands moved through generally between midnight and 7 am.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:36 am

frank 638 wrote:Very windy by me with light rain .north east wind 34mph with gust out of 48mph.what ever happened to the heavy rain we were so post to get
amazing where in the Bronx are u cuz as u know I'm almost in the bx at the McLean exit and its slightly breezy here at times but no way ur getting 48mph unless these gusts are very localized. Ya and where is the so called rain I doubt we even got a half inch.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:40 am

My area is getting the brunt of it ocean county nj the winds they expected are happening and rainfall as well.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:43 am

jmanley32 wrote:Unbelievable 3 hrs till the supposed strongest winds are over and there hasn't been anything. Kudos to those that said no mixing down. And its pretty much stopped raining too. Wow what a nor Easter lol

Actually I’d say this is a very typical nor’easter. Checks all the typical boxes: About an inch of liquid precip (more in some spots) which would be a 5-10” snowfall if this had been snow, but people expecting more so disappointed(check); winds gusty but not as strong as forecast, because as I always say and sroc said above they never pan out, leaving Jman disappointed (check); Duration of precipitation not as long as originally forecast because the models always seem to overdo the duration of these events (check). All in all a perfect dry run for what we’ll deal with all winter on here. Very Happy
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:54 am

Here are the NWS rainfall totals as of 9 am and it continues raining off and on today in most spots so final totals will be higher. Vast majority of the area is between.60-1.50” with the shore jackpotting (if we can use that term for rain). Some shore areas will easily be over 2” before it stops raining later today.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:06 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:My area is getting the brunt of it ocean county nj the winds they expected are happening and rainfall as well.
Yeah the shore is getting very strong winds now. I’m heading to the shore later and I know it will be crazy windy there. I think a lot of folks don’t realize just how much a difference there is in wind from these storms along the Jersey shore vs 15-20 miles inland/north of there. There are times I’m at my shorehouse and it feels like the roof is going to blow off but at home just a 2 hour drive away there is little wind at all.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:16 am

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:18 am

[quote="jmanley32"]
frank 638 wrote:Very windy by me with light rain .north east wind 34mph with gust out of 48mph.what ever happened to the heavy rain we were so post to get
amazing where in the Bronx are u cuz as u know I'm almost in the bx at the McLean exit and its slightly breezy here at times but no way ur getting 48mph unless these gusts are very localized. Ya and where is the so called rain I doubt we even got a half inch.[/quote I know who I am not exaggerating but my house sounds like a freight train going on by when we have a strong gust I guess I am 5 mins away from the long island sound that's why it's very windy by me

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:28 am

Sea foam everywhere

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by dkodgis on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:32 am

Skins, great pictures. Here, it started raining about 3 am. Half inch so far. Winds-nah. Top has been 6 mph. 38 degrees right now. It is a bit cooler than I expected.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:34 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Inlet in Point Beach a mile from home

https://www.facebook.com/1534650826747147/posts/2178025982409625/

wow..and channel 12 reporting flooding in other areas as well...We were supposed to go see M.A.S.T. high school this morning on Sandy Hook, but they cancelled for today...we have an inch of rain so far and winds are 20-25 (we had stronger winds last Sunday)...just an overall nasty day...nice day to read a book...be safe later..but can't wait to see your pictures!
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:35 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Sea foam everywhere


it looked like snow for a minute
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:49 am

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Unbelievable 3 hrs till the supposed strongest winds are over and there hasn't been anything. Kudos to those that said no mixing down. And its pretty much stopped raining too. Wow what a nor Easter lol

Actually I’d say this is a very typical nor’easter. Checks all the typical boxes: About an inch of liquid precip (more in some spots) which would be a 5-10” snowfall if this had been snow, but people expecting more so disappointed(check); winds gusty but not as strong as forecast, because as I always say and sroc said above they never pan out, leaving Jman disappointed (check); Duration of precipitation not as long as originally forecast because the models always seem to overdo the duration of these events (check). All in all a perfect dry run for what we’ll deal with all winter on here. Very Happy

lol!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:49 am

I will say winds are quite impressive out here in eastern Suffolk county LI

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:53 am

https://www.facebook.com/104877503654400/posts/339678960174252/

Credit point pleasant beach. I just drove through its teally bad with flooding and tree damage
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:12 am

Winds were not supposed to be too impressive inland, coastal areas and LI were to get the brunt of it, so I'm not surprised for lack of strong winds here in Bergen County. We had a few good gusts overnight, small branches down, but the folks along the coasts will get or are getting pounded. .75" of rain here.

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:16 am

It looks to me the center circulation ended up further off the coast because it missed the phase with northern energy. The GFS was pretty consistent of a missing phase while the NAM and EURO kept showing a much more impactful storm.

If this were winter - many people may have expexted 12+" of snow only to see 3 to 6 inches. But the coast, especially Jersey Shore seem to be getting hit well.

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:57 am

Still very windy Northeast winds 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph wait live rain occasionally moderate rain lots leaves are on the ground

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