October 2018 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Snow88 on Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:48 pm

Earthlight

"The threat for a significant storm along the East Coast from 10/25 - 10/30 can be traced back to the larger scale pattern evolution in the North Pacific Ocean. A jet extension and poleward amplification of a ridge into British Columbia jump starts the pattern change."
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:11 pm

Wow 12z gfs has one big storm bomb at the coast then a larger low forms immediately to the east with a huge wind and precip field. Both would be quite damaging. Even more so if we got snow in any areas with full leaves which is most. Cmc has a strong storm but moves towards cape and is more compact. 00z euro has a small low off se coast but nothing in range to our area.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:14 pm

I noted doesn't this energy relate to a tropical system from the pacific moving inland then across southern states? Will its track have a big impact on if we see a noreasters or not?
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Post by aiannone on Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:13 pm

First trace of snow in Binghamton last night. Cars were covered along with rooftops
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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:38 pm

aiannone wrote:First trace of snow in Binghamton last night. Cars were covered along with rooftops

NICE!

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Post by frank 638 on Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:32 am

Got down to 41* a nice cool crisp morning

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:38 am

Low 37*
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Post by Radz on Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:51 am

broke the 32° mark, currently 30.5° - hopefully only 1 more cutting of the grass Laughing
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:12 am

Woke up from a long summers nap to 28.4 this morning.

It's about time. One of the latest first freezes I've seen around here in a while. The normal first freeze is October 7th in the HV. Better late than never.

Now I need some white stuff.
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Post by docstox12 on Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:25 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Woke up from a long summers nap to 28.4 this morning.

It's about time. One of the latest first freezes I've seen around here in a while. The normal first freeze is October 7th in the HV. Better late than never.

Now I need some white stuff.

I have frost on the roof here CP, you must have frost there too.

Wonderful Fall morning, temps in the high 20's!
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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:15 am

30° was my low, hope the mosqitos are gone, they have been relentless!

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Post by Guest on Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:31 am

Heavy frost here on the north shore of LI. Had to use the scraper this morning

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Post by aiannone on Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:45 pm

31.4* at my house on LI last night. First freeze of the year
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:58 pm

Wow to 12z euro day 7 to 9 major noreasters 4 to 5 inches rain and 40 to 65 mph wind gusts.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:23 pm

Lee Goldberg mentioned coastal storm threat for next weekend just now.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:43 am

If Euro were more west we would be in big trouble superstorm noreaster 956mb looks just like a hurricane very symetrical on this run, has wind gusts over the water to 147mph!  Def go have watch this.
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Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:28 am

NAO dropping down to negative
AO dropping down to negative
PNA rising

Everything is pointing to a noreaster but the question is how strong? It's always about timing.

If the trailing shortwave was just a little faster on the 0z Euro, the storm would have been near the coast. This has huge potential to be a very strong coastal storm.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:07 pm

Snow88 wrote:NAO dropping down to negative
AO dropping down to negative
PNA rising

Everything is pointing to a noreaster but the question is how strong? It's always about timing.

If the trailing shortwave was just a little faster on the 0z Euro, the storm would have been near the coast. This has huge potential to be a very strong coastal storm.
i looked again at euro and I know winds can b exaggerated.i but cape cod gets wreaked even into eastern ct. But cape gets 80 mph gusts verbatim.

I just realized this is also on or close to sandy anniversary.
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Post by amugs on Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:05 pm

SNow squall line N & W tonight and BN air behind the front reinforcing the cold. COUld have a hard freeze in the burbs Sunday night into Monday.
From SuperSTorm on 33Rain WXBoard
October 2018 Observations & Discussions  - Page 4 Ne_f18.png.5111e14ef99936450e60cbbc5b2124d6


Euro bring accumulating snow N&W Thursday.
October 2018 Observations & Discussions  - Page 4 5bcb806aba5d6.thumb.png.6db75337890b1f99a2674b2a2a2c1f12

Then the explosive pattern sets up for next weekend into Mon - Tuesday time frame.

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Post by mwilli5783 on Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:14 pm

sandy came in 10/27-28 period 2013

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:18 pm

mwilli5783 wrote:sandy came in 10/27-28 period 2013
close, 2012 not 2013.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:12 am

So can I assume since we are within 10 days maybe 7 and no one is discuss the possible noreasters that its expected to stay ots or is everyone loving this weather and just too busy. Just wondering what Scott frank Nutley etc are thinking. 06z gfs was a pretty big hit. If this was winter u would be all over this the precip potential if close enough would at least be a Godzilla.
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:22 am

jmanley32 wrote:So can I assume since we are within 10 days maybe 7 and no one is discuss the possible noreasters that its expected to stay ots or is everyone loving this weather and just too busy. Just wondering what Scott frank Nutley etc are thinking. 06z gfs was a pretty big hit. If this was winter u would be all over this the precip potential if close enough would at least be a Godzilla.

I will probably add some input early this week. I have beyond busy these last couple weeks since that last outlook I posted. I will also be verifying the parts of that forecast that are in the books so far, and summarize how it looks compared to newer data for those parts yet to come.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:05 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:So can I assume since we are within 10 days maybe 7 and no one is discuss the possible noreasters that its expected to stay ots or is everyone loving this weather and just too busy. Just wondering what Scott frank Nutley etc are thinking. 06z gfs was a pretty big hit. If this was winter u would be all over this the precip potential if close enough would at least be a Godzilla.

I will probably add some input early this week. I have beyond busy these last couple weeks since that last outlook I posted. I will also be verifying the parts of that forecast that are in the books so far, and summarize how it looks compared to newer data for those parts yet to come.
But there is the potential for a monster nor easter no? I mean there have been operationals that show a brutal storm and ensembles as i posted above with ridiculously low pressures.  All just barely enough offshore to minimize impacts.

06z GFS WOW, BTW this produces snow on Euro which is similar. It appears there are two LP and the second may be the one that comes into the area, not sure though. The Euro ensembles are all over the pace in placement and timing and which low, so its still far too early.

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On a side note some night pretty high wind gusts today, im surprised no wind advisory easily 40mph plus had some tree branches one large come down in neighborhood.
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:59 pm

I wonder why National Weather Service has not issued a wind advisory because all morning long it has been very windy. And I have been driving I-95 and I've been noticing a lot of snow plows on the highways and around my area I guess they are practicing for the winter p hopefully it will be a nice snowy winter for us

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