My Winter Outlook 2018-19

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My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by Isotherm on Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:46 am

Any comments or inquiries are appreciated!

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:21 pm

Isotherm wrote:Any comments or inquiries are appreciated!

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Very nice write up! With you being on board, its pretty much a given snow wise for a productive winter. I'm going somewhat higher with snowfall amounts for NYC, more like 50+. My reasoning? The sheer frequency of storms which has already occurred and will continue to do so as we head into the winter months. The wildcard in all this is the NAO. If we get into a more prolonged -NAO regime, the aforementioned predicted amounts will be higher.
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by docstox12 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:28 am

Isotherm wrote:Any comments or inquiries are appreciated!

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/


TOP SHELF as always, and if you were a financial writer, your 82% accuracy would put you in the "Holy Grail" category! The technical depth is over my head , but at the end you bring it all together with the monthly synopsis and the maps.Thank you so much for taking the time to develop this analysis and posting it for us on the site.
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:54 am

Tom phenomenal write up as usual. I am extremely excited at the potential for the early start. Thank you for all the time and effort.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:23 am

Tom - thank you for sharing here at NJ Strong. Many here, myself included, find you fascinating. This was another well-written and informative outlook. I will pin it to the top. This in particular caught my attention:

My NAO, “Formula” which I developed several years ago and incorporates 4 main sub-components. Its retrospective success in forecasting the modality of the ensuing DJF NAO since 1950 has been 87%; and, since utilizing it prospectively, it has verified accurately in the past 4 winters as far as prognosticating the DJF NAO modality. The past several autumns, the NAO formula has strongly indicated a winter-time positive NAO. This year, for the first time since the beginning of this decade, the formula indicates that the NAO will average negative for the DJF winter season; not strongly so, but weakly negative to potentially moderately negative. Compared to the positive NAO dominance of the past several winters, it will be a material alteration.

It actually appears the NAO will be headed negative toward Thanksgiving. In your opinion what that drives the positive/negative state of the NAO? Is there something specifically you pay attention to?

Also, thoughts on the probabilities of a SSWE?

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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by frank 638 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:51 am

Tom thank you for your wonderful write up for this upcoming winter I and thinking this is going to be a great winter for everyone my fingers are crossed

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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:57 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Isotherm wrote:Any comments or inquiries are appreciated!

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

Very nice write up! With you being on board, its pretty much a given snow wise for a productive winter. I'm going somewhat higher with snowfall amounts for NYC, more like 50+. My reasoning? The sheer frequency of storms which has already occurred and will continue to do so as we head into the winter months. The wildcard in all this is the NAO. If we get into a more prolonged -NAO regime, the aforementioned predicted amounts will be higher.

I'm with you, we have been in such a wet pattern, we are bound to see more snow events. How much we see in those events will be the question...

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      7.75"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by Isotherm on Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:09 pm

Thank you all for the nice comments! Frank, as noted in the outlook, I think we have a lower than normal chance for a technical SSW this year, but the troposphere and lower strat vortices should be weaker than normal with plenty perturbation. Re NAO, the provenance of its interseasonal emanate from a number of sources, like toruqes, poleward propagating AAM anomalies, SSTs, solar activity, among others. The NAO variance is multifactorial which is why, I think, few have figured out how to fcst it. I am hoping that my formula continues to prove successful empirically.
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Re: My Winter Outlook 2018-19

Post by mako460 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:17 pm

Great write up Iso but I see that it already busted. I read the whole thing and not once did you mention 6 inches of snow in Central Park on November 15. Maybe I'll have to check again lol.

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