First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:29 am

I felt it was an appropriate time to start our first winter storm thread of the season. Granted this will not be a significant winter storm, but it looks exceedingly likely areas N&W of NYC will see their first snow and ice of the season.







This is a solid 12+ hours of wintry precipitation for some places. A strong 1030mb High Pressure is anchored over Maine which is keeping low level cold in place over parts of our area Thursday. It will be interesting to see if models trend colder or warmer over the coming days. It will depend on where that High is exactly.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by hyde345 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:01 am

Really excited about this upcoming winter. Got down to 24 last night and starting to get that "snow is almost here" feel up here. I wouldn't be surprised by 1 or 2 inches here Thursday night. I think there will be enough cold air locked in to achieve that before a changeover to rain. I guess I have to finish raking the leaves.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:42 am


EURO came in colder/faster. Late week storm just got interesting folks.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:06 pm

Not sure I am buying that drastic cutoff from 6 inches of snow to zero snow within the span of maybe five or so miles? Does this include sleet/freezing rain as part of the totals?
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by algae888 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:38 pm

Both the Euro and ukie on board for a snow and sleet accumulations thursday afternoon and night 4 to 7 in on the Euro 6 to 8 in on the UK verbatim for most of the area
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by algae888 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:40 pm

I am a big fan of those 1030 plus high pressure that sit over Northern New England
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by sroc4 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:40 pm

algae888 wrote:I am a big fan of those 1030 plus high pressure that  sit over Northern New England

We just have to make sure thats where it stays. Today is encouraging but Im not sold on that just yet

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by hyde345 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:49 pm

18Z GFS is colder FWIW. NWS Albany talking about possible accumulating snow here late thursday and thursday night and may need winter weather headlines.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:33 pm

MOG



(I mean, take it with a grain of sno, i mean, salt. Wink )
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:35 pm


Para 18z GFS affraid
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by billg315 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:07 pm

Right now there is still a split between NAM and GFS with GFS colder with more snow and sleet for north jersey/nyc metro. My guess is that we will see some frozen precip from this system, but I doubt we’ll see much accumulation (other than maybe a coating on some colder surfaces), except in the Poconos, upper Hudson Val and maybe extreme NW NJ.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:37 pm

Madonne...this is quite the look at 500mb. A closed off 500mb uppper level low over Kentucky Thursday afternoon and moving North-northeast right into the cold air mass that's there from the High.



My initial thoughts are still little to no accumulation for NYC and points S&E, but for N&W including interior NJ, north central NJ and northern NJ there could be a swath of 2-4/3-6" of snow that tries to develop. The potential is actually there for more but lets not get ahead of ourselves yet. Thursday afternoon we deal with wave #1, which is front end snow/sleet to rain for the coast and maybe snow to frozen precip for interior. But wave 2 early Friday morning could drop a few inches to the aforementioned areas. We shall see...

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by frank 638 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:56 pm

I don't know what to believe TWC has snow developing Thursday afternoon 1to 3 inches of snow then changeing to rain by nite

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by billg315 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:09 pm

0z NAM is running. We’ll see how it looks. We’re only 72 hours out, but the models might get a better read on Thursday after tonight’s storm clears out tomorrow.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:12 pm

frank 638 wrote:I don't know what to believe TWC has snow developing Thursday afternoon 1to 3 inches of snow then changeing to rain by nite
I guess I have been aweful busy, those snow maps are crazy! 6+ even in southern WC? I dunno if I buy that but I will take our first delay or snow day lol, Interesting of course favors the interior but you never know, as you guys have noted it appears its trending colder.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:14 pm

billg315 wrote:0z NAM is running. We’ll see how it looks. We’re only 72 hours out, but the models might get a better read on Thursday after tonight’s storm clears out tomorrow.
Any chance I see any sig snow out of this? I work in white plains now and am not looking forward to a friday morning commute in the snow, it always is colder up near 287. But what about down here? Those snow maps show pretty high snowfall even to the coast IF they are taken verbatim. Note the 12z Euro has a ton of freezing rain over a huge area encompassing the area and most of PA with as much as 1" of ice!
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:19 pm

Woah.....MOG

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by billg315 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:21 pm

It certainly seems to me that it will be cold enough aloft to support snow across much of the area Thursday evening. I guess my questions are, when will the transition from rain t snow take place and how much will stick. It is getting dark early now and the sun angle is approaching it’s weakest period so that helps.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by frank 638 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Woah.....MOG


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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:23 pm

Sun angle is a non issue now. I'm actually starting to think several inches could fall across interior portions of NJ, NEPA and SNY. NYC and coast is uncertain still.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by frank 638 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:24 pm

Sorry I jmanley I am half a sleep Is this a dream I hope this comes true let it snow lol

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:25 pm

algae888 wrote:Both the Euro and ukie on board for a snow and sleet accumulations thursday afternoon and night 4 to 7 in on the Euro 6 to 8 in on the UK verbatim for most of the area
Hey Al, this is your season : ) What do you think for us down here? Models show accumulating snow even down to the coast but the amounts being shown especially on the para GFS and Euro last night are crazy for mid november.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by rb924119 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:26 pm

Actually sitting down to do some formal analysis on this event, and I must say that I like what I'm seeing in the hemispheric setup, and fully expect us to see this continue to trend a bit further south and east as we draw closer to the event, both the surface low track and the mid-level low. I think a lot of us will see significant snowfall from this, regardless of November's historical standards. More details to come......at some point tonight haha

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:27 pm

frank 638 wrote:Sorry I jmanley I am half a sleep Is this a dream I hope this comes true let it snow lol
We can't get mad if it doesn't, rarely have we seen snow to any significance this early, northern areas obviously stand the best chance but maybe this will be one to remember. Haha
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:38 pm

NAM raining thursday afternoon but heavy snow fel lto our south a foot in carolinas lol, they would literally crumble. Hr 81 NAM has 4-8 areawide, except LI. the higest N/W of NYC by about 20 miles or so. Al shows us getting 3-6!

NAm trended much colder and south than the 18z.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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