First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by aiannone on Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:11 pm

Just got a watch in Binghamton for 6"+ of snow and up to an inch of ice. Yikes
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by billg315 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:13 pm

Here’s my best guess now:
Green: Mostly wet. May start as snow but will mix with sleet quickly then change to rain quickly by late afternoon.
Purple: 1-2” of snow before changing to sleet which won’t add much to the total; a changeover to all rain by evening.
Blue: 2-4”. Snow hangs in a little longer and prolonged sleet may add a layer of accumulation, before a later change to rain by midnight.
All areas could end as a brief burst of snow west to east as rain ends late Friday morning.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by hyde345 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:23 pm

TheAresian wrote:Somebody somewhere is smoking something. Accuweather calling for me to get 3-6, NWS calling for 7 or 8 and the Weather Channel predicting 9-15.

Haha but at least NWS has a WSW out in your area. Weather channel has me getting 1-3 tomorrow afternoon and 5-8 tomorrow night and still nothing from NWS Albany.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by TheAresian on Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:54 pm

They NWS has dropped their 7 or 8" of snow down to 6 and replaced it with .10" ice. Weather Channel dropped their total down to match yours. This storm is getting messy.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by frank 638 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:05 pm

I wonder if winter weather advisory extended all the way down to the city

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by sroc4 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:20 pm

frank 638 wrote:I wonder if winter weather advisory extended all the way down to the city

https://www.weather.gov/okx/


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:36 pm

Wonder if that wind advisory for nj will be expanded north I wouldn't see why winds wouldn't meet same criteria all way up coast. Wind spells trouble even with a little snow we still have many trees with leaves though some are done or near others are quite full.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:41 pm

Looking like a non issue accumulation wise in the vicinity of NYC and points south. Nice to talk about snow though. My map will bust high. Cut every prediction in half
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Snow88 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:37 pm

DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:13 pm

Snow88 wrote:DT has 2-4 inches for NYC and a lot more to the north and west

Upton now has 1-2 inches for NYC with nothing in eastern LI

DT ?
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:42 pm

I will say this..the air feels like snow is coming..its cold out there..currently 33 here in Hazlet with a real feel of 24..I wish were were not so close to the water..sister is gong to be in the jack pot area, I think in the hills of Nj.( fyi current water temp in the bay is 43* it dropped almost 10* in the last week)
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:44 pm

Again like I said a few days ago, this is an article air mass of dense cold air that HP means business for this time of year and models trend colder and radar depicting this southern tier. Don't go against CAD peeps. The mid layers may warm up to the NJ/ NY border but it is ice issues of up to .10 to .20 of ice. There maybe a wrap around snow burst for a few hours Friday morning as the storm wraps up pulling away.
BTW Euro holds serve
Ukie, Euro, Rgem, Hrds, Gfs Paradise all in dame came , old Gfs doing what it does best. 
Euro for you, again don't take verbatim cut I'd say in half
Would help if I put the map up


Last edited by amugs on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:34 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Vinnydula on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:22 pm

Why is the Nam and euro showing a good amount of snow
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:35 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Why is the Nam and euro showing a good amount of snow
Rgem and hdrps SR models as well.as HRRR picking up on the cold air entrenchment to a degree

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by TheAresian on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:40 pm

I'm going to wear out my mouse going from one model run to the other. It feels like an early Xmas gift is coming.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Vinnydula on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:41 pm

Look like 5to8 for my area on each map. Guess we just ride this out
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:52 pm

Not expecting more than a slushy inch on the coast. Anything more will be a bonus. Still nice to see snow falling for a few hours tomorrow bill take it in November
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by TheAresian on Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:57 pm

I feel bad for some of you guys. Check out the freezing rain total. Yuck.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:20 pm

That is some serious icing if it comes to fruition in Passaic and Susex counties as well northern Morrison cty

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:25 pm

From NSFW pro met ccb sweeps trough dumping, NAMS, RGEM, HRDPS all hint at this


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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Grselig on Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:30 pm

Ouch. I hate freezing rain. Wayne schools in Passaic County called an early dismissal
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by 2004blackwrx on Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:48 pm

this is definitely a southern board. everything is quiet when the storm is north and west. im surprised the potential this early in year doesnt have everyone excited.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by dkodgis on Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:58 am

I am excited but I am a novice with limited knowledge about the mechanics. It is watch, listen, learn for me.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by HeresL on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:31 am


by 2004blackwrx
this is definitely a southern board. everything is quiet when the storm is north and west. im surprised the potential this early in year doesnt have everyone excited.

I agree, blackwrx! I’m up here in West Milford (NW Passaic County / NY State border) and we are Getting conflicting reports of 2-4 and 4-8 inches with some icing issues. I don’t know what to believe...
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by docstox12 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:34 am

Same here in Monroe NY HV with the NWS forecast.Anywhere from 3 1/2 to 7 1/2 inches.LOL, talk about hedging.It will be nice to see snow on the ground this early in the season anyway!
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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