First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:20 am

syosnow94 wrote:Doc and CP. heavy squall incoming. You’re picking up another quick inch

I think this last band gets us over 10 inches.

No complaints here.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:41 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Man oh man sounds like I missed quite the storm lol!

I actually wish I was home even though it looked like this:



I mean, holy crap

I’m in the process of trying to ban you from the tri-State area during storm threats due to the scientific correlation between you being out of town and snowstorms over performing
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:05 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Man oh man sounds like I missed quite the storm lol!

I actually wish I was home even though it looked like this:



I mean, holy crap

I’m in the process of trying to ban you from the tri-State area during storm threats due to the scientific correlation between you being out of town and snowstorms over performing

Franksuppression or the Frankstinence Effect.....hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Grselig on Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:20 am

docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Man oh man sounds like I missed quite the storm lol!

I actually wish I was home even though it looked like this:



I mean, holy crap

I’m in the process of trying to ban you from the tri-State area during storm threats due to the scientific correlation between you being out of town and snowstorms over performing

Franksuppression or the Frankstinence Effect.....hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!

Leave him alone. He's obviously in horrible distress after missing the storm. Have sympathy man.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:27 am

Grselig wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Man oh man sounds like I missed quite the storm lol!

I actually wish I was home even though it looked like this:



I mean, holy crap

I’m in the process of trying to ban you from the tri-State area during storm threats due to the scientific correlation between you being out of town and snowstorms over performing

Franksuppression or the Frankstinence Effect.....hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!

Leave him alone.  He's obviously in horrible distress after missing the storm.  Have sympathy man.

No sympathy
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:37 am

Picked up another 1" this morning. Calling it at 7.5". Super happy about this one!

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:00 am

Yonkers is slowly getting back to normal school closed my school is half staff and I don't have go in. The city really needs to improve this cannot happen again.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:02 am

Frank u missed a crazed mess you wouldn't wanted b here if u had be on the roads at all. Read my comments about yonkers. I will say for once I jackpotted in a way getting 7 inches when usually I get screwed.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by brownie on Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:15 am

Torrential rain and thunder this morning around 5 am, then more sleet and snow.  I added a couple of inches to the 6 from last night, so I finished at about 8 inches.  This morning’s snow was even more wet concrete-like than yesterday’s.  I am pooped from shoveling!

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:27 am

I've had a difficult time coping with missing out on the storm. I've asked my hotel to manufacture snow for me. Hopefully they come through

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:40 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I've had a difficult time coping with missing out on the storm. I've asked my hotel to manufacture snow for me. Hopefully they come through

The work therapy class for snow deprivation at the OTI Sanitarium feels your pain Frank and is shipping this immediately to help you cope.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-PzfuuaWx8

PS: If any postage is due, just mail me a bill at the Sanitarium.

On a weather note, final total here as per trained spotter is 11 inches.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by TheAresian on Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:08 pm

Having finally gone outside, I was pleasantly surprised to see how well the storm actually did. A trained spotted reported 12.5" about 6 miles from here with an amateur 2.5 miles away reporting 10". I had eyeball guessed around 8" or so, but it's definitely more like 12". An A+ start to the season for me.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by sroc4 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I've had a difficult time coping with missing out on the storm. I've asked my hotel to manufacture snow for me. Hopefully they come through

While I feel your pain this is banter.  Please keep posts like this in the appropriate thread.  If you have a problem with that please contact myself or the other administrator.  Word of caution.  The other administrator can be quite harsh when it comes to insubordination.  Fortunately he has been away, otherwise I fear he may have banned you without warning for banterish comments like this.  


Thank you for understanding.  Sincerely...a


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:47 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I've had a difficult time coping with missing out on the storm. I've asked my hotel to manufacture snow for me. Hopefully they come through

The work therapy class for snow deprivation at the OTI Sanitarium feels your pain Frank and is shipping this immediately to help you cope.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-PzfuuaWx8

PS: If any postage is due, just mail me a bill at the Sanitarium.

On a weather note, final total here as per trained spotter is 11 inches.

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I've had a difficult time coping with missing out on the storm. I've asked my hotel to manufacture snow for me. Hopefully they come through

While I feel your pain this is banter.  Please keep posts like this in the appropriate thread.  If you have a problem with that please contact myself or the other administrator.  Word of caution.  The other administrator can be quite harsh when it comes to insubordination.  Fortunately he has been away, otherwise I fear he may have banned you without warning for banterish comments like this.  


Thank you for understanding.  Sincerely...a


lol! lol! lol!

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
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2017-2018: 35"

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:47 pm

TheAresian wrote:Having finally gone outside, I was pleasantly surprised to see how well the storm actually did. A trained spotted reported 12.5" about 6 miles from here with an amateur 2.5 miles away reporting 10". I had eyeball guessed around 8" or so, but it's definitely more like 12". An A+ start to the season for me.

Sweet!!

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by rb924119 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:00 pm

What a tremendously horrible bust of a forecast for me. I saw the signs of a colder solution (aside from what some of the modeling was showing), but improperly weighted the multiple factors involved in this system and got caught partially playing the model game instead of trusting my own intuition enough to fully pull the trigger on an all-out colder solution. I know I can do better than what I did, and provide a significantly higher quality product, and that’s what is so frustrating. I sincerely apologize to you all.

Not to make excuses, or to try and downplay my poor performance, but this was an incredibly hard forecast to make. However, the key is to learn from what went wrong and to openly apply that knowledge the next time around. I know exactly where I went wrong - while I acknowledged a seemingly weak Hemispheric tendency for this system to trend colder (basis teleconnections among other global/Hemispheric indicators I look at), I SEVERELY underestimated strength of the cold air, which I think is a result of the highly anomalous feedback occurring in Canada beginning to really take over as we continue our march into the true cold season. I think, though without complete certainty, that this system was a very real harbinger of things to come this season in terms of just how serious the cold air will be, when present. Often times the “tone” of winter season storms can be gleaned from the behavior of preceding events, but given the tenacity of the cold in just this event in spite of the storm track and time of year (relative to “winter” events), I think it was a serious “trend setter” in that regard. Just my opinion, of course, but this is something I will be in consideration of down the road, and will really weigh heavily in further forecasts. I knew it would begin to take over to some degree as we continued into Winter, but I think this feedback may truly be spectacular this season. Looking forward to the next one, and the chance to redeem myself!!

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by sroc4 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:41 pm

rb924119 wrote:What a tremendously horrible bust of a forecast for me. I saw the signs of a colder solution (aside from what some of the modeling was showing), but improperly weighted the multiple factors involved in this system and got caught partially playing the model game instead of trusting my own intuition enough to fully pull the trigger on an all-out colder solution. I know I can do better than what I did, and provide a significantly higher quality product, and that’s what is so frustrating. I sincerely apologize to you all.

Not to make excuses, or to try and downplay my poor performance, but this was an incredibly hard forecast to make. However, the key is to learn from what went wrong and to openly apply that knowledge the next time around. I know exactly where I went wrong - while I acknowledged a seemingly weak Hemispheric tendency for this system to trend colder (basis teleconnections among other global/Hemispheric indicators I look at), I SEVERELY underestimated strength of the cold air, which I think is a result of the highly anomalous feedback occurring in Canada beginning to really take over as we continue our march into the true cold season. I think, though without complete certainty, that this system was a very real harbinger of things to come this season in terms of just how serious the cold air will be, when present. Often times the “tone” of winter season storms can be gleaned from the behavior of preceding events, but given the tenacity of the cold in just this event in spite of the storm track and time of year (relative to “winter” events), I think it was a serious “trend setter” in that regard. Just my opinion, of course, but this is something I will be in consideration of down the road, and will really weigh heavily in further forecasts. I knew it would begin to take over to some degree as we continued into Winter, but I think this feedback may truly be spectacular this season. Looking forward to the next one, and the chance to redeem myself!!

I am in the same boat here.  If it were even a mere few weeks to a month later I probably would not have hung on so stubbornly on my expectations for the warmth to win out along the coastal plain.  There were a few things that I think were key factors.  First, like you mention above Ray, the overall strength of the HP was stronger than I expected and moved off the coast a mere few hours later than I expected.  With water temps as warm as they are the timing of when the HP moved east off the coast relative to where the heaviest precip was was important.  I am pretty confident that if the HP had moved east 3-6hrs earlier than it did the coastal plain would have had a diff outcome.  With the first wave of precip being mostly due to WAA and strong frontogenesis.  The baroclinically driven movement of air was much stronger than I anticipated which is likely a testament of just how cold this air mass really was relative to the airmass that was advecting into the region.   There was some incredibly strong banding move in initially due to the prev mention factors.  The result was that the dynamic cooling took over before the warm nose was really able to impose its will.  Again a testament to just how strong the cold air mass was.  Due to the structure of the system as a whole from 500mb to the surface LP features(that came in two waves) by the time the warmer mid layers arrived into the coastal plain the "dry slot" between LP centers had already arrived and prevented any major rain sleet accumulation with the initial wave yest and last night.  I still got plenty of rain with the second wave that moved through early this am (as did much of the coastal plain) and did get my change over last night, but only after several hours of intense snow fall rates, but again damage done.  

Weather is humbling and as they say.."Theres no winning and losing.  There's only winning and learning.  For me this storm..learning. "

Anyway we really do have a ton to be excited about both in the near term and the long haul.  Buckle up folks because this winter looks to be a wild ride.


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:41 pm

So what's next lol. I remember mugs saying we have multiple threats before Nov is even over. Oh btw frank can we count this in our yearly total even though its not within djf?
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by dkodgis on Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:39 pm

I finished up here with 12 inches. No plow guy. Everyone was overworked I guess. 3700 sq ft of driveway to shovel. I did pull out an elec snow shovel that did better then the blower. A neighbor could not get out of the city last night eo he slept in his office. So I count myself lucky. Nothing to complain about
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:20 am

The final tally of the storm. Orange County seemed to win this one in our area (Gardnertown had 13.0 inches) but Upton totals don't include Dutchess and Ulster which both looked like they exceeded a foot in several locations. Maybe Hyde or Jim can post those.

I know Mount Hope in Orange County recorded 18.3 by a trained spotter but I'm still not buying that one. My final tally was 10.0 even, verified by a trained spotter in Highland Mills that recorded 10.2. The trained spotter in Monroe recorded 11.0 inches, so Doc it appears you win this round.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:16 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The final tally of the storm. Orange County seemed to win this one in our area (Gardnertown had 13.0 inches) but Upton totals don't include Dutchess and Ulster which both looked like they exceeded a foot in several locations. Maybe Hyde or Jim can post those.

I know Mount Hope in Orange County recorded 18.3 by a trained spotter but I'm still not buying that one. My final tally was 10.0 even, verified by a trained spotter in Highland Mills that recorded 10.2. The trained spotter in Monroe recorded 11.0 inches, so Doc it appears you win this round.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

Thank you my Good Man for that. What an amazing storm this early in the season.I never saw 11 inches of snow in the middle of November in my life.Orange County ROCKS.The Long Range Crew is excited about the December chances so let the good times roll.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by hyde345 on Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:57 am

Here ya go CP. These are some reports from Albany forecast area. Some pretty good numbers in Dutchess and Ulster counties. I measured 9 inches in Hyde Park.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:39 am

I forgot to post the most important stat from the recent snow storm. While much of our area was enjoying 6-12 inches of the white stuff out east in Red Sox Suck it was an all rain event. It happens that way more than people realize but of course we only notice when they do better than us.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Nov 18, 2018 4:53 pm

Trained spotter...final total was 2.5 i am happy!
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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