First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:25 pm

This running colder each run - good signs
LLC is winning overall

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Vinnydula on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:26 pm

Snj gets snow on the Nam.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:29 pm

0z NAM




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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:30 pm

The NAM which killed it last winter is showing signs of leading the way.
One things that is pissing me off a bit is the weather pro mets on TV showing the GFS and its .2 accumulations for area here or .5 - for teh love of god that old horse gets puts to rest next month so the Para is the new GFS but they are still relying on this model that has a notorious warm bias and cant see LLC if its life depended on it./rant

@Syo love the kindergarten coloring job on teh map adn I see how this is quite possible and may come to fruition. Good bold cal my man.
Anyone here remember 95-96 with our first snow i later november - another one is coming then too 26-28 and then again 12/1-3ish

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:32 pm

Wth is that hole of nothing in Westchester and parts of nj and ct?! Syo this ur fault ur map!! NYC gets snow but not us that hole makes no sense.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wth is that hole of nothing in Westchester and parts of nj and ct?! Syo this ur fault ur map!! NYC gets snow but not us that hole makes no sense.

This is what you want - 3K NAM sharpen up the trough and kicks it underneath us to bring ZR and snows back in on teh back side - col dbe a bad Friday morning commute for teh burbs if it nails this - many school delayed opening and closures possible IF this comes to fruition

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wth is that hole of nothing in Westchester and parts of nj and ct?! Syo this ur fault ur map!! NYC gets snow but not us that hole makes no sense.

I saw that and laughed Jman. My fault. Plus it has 5.3 IMBY

In all seriousness I like my call. Boundary layer and ground too warm near the ocean. Gonna be a white rain situation
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wth is that hole of nothing in Westchester and parts of nj and ct?! Syo this ur fault ur map!! NYC gets snow but not us that hole makes no sense.

I saw that and laughed Jman. My fault. Plus it has 5.3 IMBY

In all seriousness I like my call. Boundary layer and ground too warm near the ocean. Gonna be a white rain situation
I am sure you did, but it doesnt make logical sense that NYC sees snow and 10-25 miles north nothing, no precip at all (well its prolly rain), I will take the Euro and Deep thunder
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:46 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wth is that hole of nothing in Westchester and parts of nj and ct?! Syo this ur fault ur map!! NYC gets snow but not us that hole makes no sense.

This is what you want - 3K NAM sharpen up the trough and kicks it underneath us to bring ZR and snows back in on teh back side - col dbe a bad Friday morning commute for teh burbs if it nails this - many school delayed opening and closures possible IF this comes to fruition
Why is this what I want? A snow hole with nada but rain but all areas around me within a 10 mile area see 2+ inches including NYC, thats just plain aweful.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:51 pm

Okay 3km NAM MUCH better, and includes ALL.

Ouch a ton of frz too, with wind gusts to 40mph, we could be looking at a lot of power outages too.



A lot of this may be frz and sleet, as I do not think weatherbell accounts for the differences and the snow map just adds it all together, and man they dont have te 06z of 18z euro that stinks, why?
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:03 pm

Jman you always want IMBY so that is why I posted this map above.
Skew T on NAM Hi RES have about .5" of liquid falling as snow in NYC Metro before changing to sleet then zr - all of which is about .3" then abou .3" of rain.
The burbs N& W by about 25 miles ae snow then sleet and zr then drizzle at best.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:07 pm

amugs wrote:Jman you always want IMBY so that is why  I posted this map above.
Skew T on NAM Hi RES have about .5" of liquid falling as snow in NYC Metro before changing to sleet then zr - all of which is about .3" then abou .3" of rain.
The burbs N& W by about 25 miles ae snow then sleet and zr then drizzle at best.
That NAM map shows a huige show hole N and east of NYC, I am not understanding what you are saying but no other map shows that so I am gonna say its flawed lol, praying it is.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:16 pm

weird how different sites maps are not the same, look at 00z nam from wxbell vs. pivotal wx above, no snow hole and higher amounts.



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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:51 pm

A challenge with snow maps is the algorithms may take into account sleet and frozen rain in their snow calculation, while some snow maps are good at just picking out what falls as snow. That's why it is important to understand boundary temps and other factors rather than trusting snow maps off-hand.

I maintain that coastal sections - Jersey Shore, NE NJ, NYC, and LI - will see 1" or less while those west or north of there see 1-3" with some places seeing well more. I may post a snow map late tomorrow to better outline my thoughts.


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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:49 am

Gulp.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:04 am

Very tough call with with boundary levels an issue. One thing I see several people mentioning which I don’t believe will be an issue is sun angle and ground temps. The afternoon sun angle in mid November is the same as mid January so I don’t see this as an issue at all. Ground temps other than roads in urban areas also not an issue. Water temps other than immediate shore areas also will not come into play think November 6 2012 snow storm. How quickly the mid levels warm is the key here to snow totals.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by 2004blackwrx on Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:45 am

CP I agree with you on the sun angle is not an issue. However i do think ground temperature are still warm. in the cold morning only the top thin layer is frozen and in the wet areas of my yard its not even frozen.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:01 am

This was never a sgoing to be a snow storm for us coasties but to be tracking this early in season is a great sign to come. Northwest and west folks going to be surprised on what's coming.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:14 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:This was never a sgoing to be a snow storm for us coasties but to be tracking this early in season is a great sign to come. Northwest and west folks going to be surprised on what's coming.

wow that's increased a bit gr8 p m 18z u don't have ghetto p far from coast to get into good snows verbatim on those and euro but I still think a lot of that is other types of frozen precip.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:30 am

I still like my map
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:41 am

Those maps have to be including other ptypes. It just won't be cold enough long enough for that kind of snow to take place.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by dkodgis on Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:43 am

I like any map that shows snow
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:05 am

Can anyone tell me an estimated time this might start..tia
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:14 am

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Those maps have to be including other ptypes. It just won't be cold enough long enough for that kind of snow to take place.

8” IMBY on the coast one week after Sandy
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:30 am

syosnow94 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Those maps have to be including other ptypes. It just won't be cold enough long enough for that kind of snow to take place.

8” IMBY on the coast one week after Sandy

I get that. Just with this storm I don't see the cold winning out for as long as it would take to maintain snow. I still think the warm air with the system will overrun the cold fairly quickly after onset...at least for me in West-central NJ. I can see maybe 2 or 3 inches of snow burst followed sleet and some freezing rain in my area. I just don't see these totals (as snow) verifying.

Would love to be wrong however.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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