December 4th-5th Storm Threat

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December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:47 am

Good Morning -

I'm keeping an eye on a potential storm that could impact our area December 4th-5th. Although the GFS and EURO do not show a storm in their latest runs, the CMC and some individual ensemble members do. The pieces are there but is the pattern conducive to tie these pieces together? At this time I am thinking no the pattern is not.

Here is a look at the 500mb pattern on Monday, December 3rd from the GEFS and EPS. Remember our potential storm is on the 4th-5th.





Notice how both of these models have the East Coast stuck between the Atlantic Ridge and Mid-Level Trough. On Sunday, our area will see rain part from a storm cutting through the central U.S. After the cold front passes through our area, it shifts the baroclinic zone well to our S&E. Heights never seen to recover because of the lack of amplification in the central and western U.S.



If we look at the 500mb upper energy on Tuesday afternoon, you can see how energy is strung out across the country. It is hard to find a truly defined northern and southern piece of energy.



Fast forward to Wednesday morning and now you actually do see well defined norther pieces of energy - digging south in response to the anomalous -EPO ridge - but by this point any southern energy has exited the coast. It is possible we can see a storm solely from the northern piece, a clipper essentially, but we will need to see it dig much further south. The PNA is mostly neutral or negative which does not help matters.

This all comes down to timing. If the northern piece speeds up to phase with southern energy than we could see a pretty significant storm effect our area. Most likely though, we only have northern pieces to work with and it is still too early to know if these pieces of energy are strong enough to bring about a low pressure (clipper).

We'll see what happens!


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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:34 am

12z ICON is a coastal compared to previous runs of a cutter


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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:50 am

Sanchize06 wrote:12z ICON is a coastal compared to previous runs of a cutter

Just saw that 3 to 6 inches for the area I figured it was going to adjust after showing primary over Michigan yesterday
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by algae888 on Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:28 pm

CMC GFS and the new GFS all lost the storm for Tuesday / Wednesday
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by amugs on Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:16 pm

Don't write this off - we need a few tweaks and timing and BAM!! Just have to hope the North Stream Energy catches up to the Southern and rounds the bend. This is 5 days out for things to come around over the next three days.

You see a N PNA here on the GEFS - need a bit more spike and we could be in business:


0Z run - you see it building



same time 12z yesterday


It may not have room with a few LP coming on shore but it has potential

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by sroc4 on Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:23 pm

Window is not quite closed on this threat just yet but its about half way. The threat behind is a much more legitimate threat which has always been the case. 24-36 more hours could legitimately close this window for me.

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by sroc4 on Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:23 pm

Patience

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by sroc4 on Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:23 pm

Its coming

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by algae888 on Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:40 pm

Yes Scott patients this threat is not over yet it's kind of changed as it's been pushed back a day to Wednesday into Thursday as it is no more Southern stream as that shortwave exit off the coast however the northern stream shortwave looks to close off in the Midwest for a 6 hour period before opening back up if it's just a little stronger and stays closed a little longer surface low-pressure would form and could impact our area still hasn't been sample yet have a few more days to go for that
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:23 pm

Oh boy..kiss of death channel 2 talking about threat next Sunday
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:31 am

As suspected this storm will not work out for us. The upper energy is strung out across the country and the baroclinic zone is way off the coast.

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by algae888 on Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:38 pm

Just something to keep an eye out for the rgem shows a norlan trough developing from the coastal storm that will be well offshore gives the southern Coastal New Jersey 2 to 4 inches of snow not sure if this feature will show up they are hard to predict and they usually come north closer in time
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by rb924119 on Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:15 pm

algae888 wrote:Just something to keep an eye out for the rgem shows a norlan trough developing from the coastal storm that will be well offshore gives the southern Coastal New Jersey 2 to 4 inches of snow not sure if this feature will show up they are hard to predict and they usually come north closer in time

This aspect is legitimate. We track!!

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:48 am

south central coastal NJ looks like they will snow tomorrow from inv trough. short range model all show 2+ inches of snow.
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:37 am

That's a nice hit on the HRDPS for Coastal central New Jersey tomorrow convective snows love to be there tomorrow
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:41 am



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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:23 am

Wow...looks like a few of us in Ocean County would walk away with a nice little hit there.

After last month's shut out, I'll take this little Hanukkah gift and run!

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:28 am

Also, when it's possible to do, can someone please give a travel advisory for Rte 70 from Cherry Hill to Toms River tomorrow from 5 am thru 2 pm? Thanks!


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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:40 am

RGEM still showing nice little hit (3-6 in.) for Ocean County this afternoon. TWC radar shows a glancing blow and global models and the NAM and HRRR show a near miss.

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:36 am

Curreent radar shows the IVT expanding into the SNJ coast.  Good luck to anyone down there and please report if you can.  


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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by larryrock72 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:14 am

Down here in Atlantic county NJ. About 8 miles west of Atlantic City snowing at a good clip.....grass and car are covered, roads are wet. They are calling for 2-3 inches....We'll see

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:32 am

larryrock72 wrote:Down here in Atlantic county NJ. About 8 miles west of Atlantic City snowing at a good clip.....grass and car are covered, roads are wet. They are calling for 2-3 inches....We'll see

Nice. Good luck!!

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by frank 638 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:38 am

I hope we get a nice little surprise for the city

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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:44 am

Yep. looks like that Norlun trough has panned out for S. Jersey. Philadelphia actually reporting snow this hour as well.
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:06 pm

sroc4 wrote:Curreent radar shows the IVT expanding into the SNJ coast.  Good luck to anyone down there and please report if you can.  


Radar looks pretty decent. Litle flare up just south of Manhattan/Statan island just off the NJ coast too

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
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Re: December 4th-5th Storm Threat

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