December 2018 Observations and Discussions

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:55 am

24* low temp this am...
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Post by Guest on Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:02 am

Low of 18 this morning. Everything nearby frozen solid. 2 more cold mornings to go. Epic 10 day stretch of way below normal temps and zero precipitation. Bring on the rain Friday night and Saturday. Woohoo

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Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:36 am

Yes it was very cold the last few mornings this 10-day stretch will be the coldest 10-day stretch in December since 2010 hper Blue Wave on the other forum very unusual to have this type of cold and dry in December usually just happens in January definitely a wasted period Let's hope we can reload going forward
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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:24 am

There are still some pretty big timing differences on the models on when the rain will start and end this weekend. My guess now is it begins to rain late Friday, around Midnight, and rain last through early evening Saturday. There will be a short break then another batch of rain tries to work itself in late Saturday into Sunday morning.

Afterwards, some models show snow over the area Monday from what looks like a norlun trough. Check out this huge lobe of closed 500mb energy over the Tri-State area Monday afternoon. If we can get this lobe to dig south a little more I will feel more confident in a widespread snow on Monday. But for now, I would bet against it.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_24

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Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:57 am

All meso models  are pointing towards a minor accumulating snowfall tomorrow for areas north and west of New York City as a northern stream wave tracks just south of us. Looking out to the period That Frank mentioned the CMC now forms. A coastal with the upper level low but it's too slow with the northern stream. GFS faster with the northern stream and catches up to the low to give us some snow Monday night and Tuesday we'll see what happens
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:37 pm

algae888 wrote:Yes it was very cold the last few mornings this 10-day stretch will be the coldest 10-day stretch in December since 2010 hper Blue Wave on the other forum very unusual to have this type of cold and dry in December usually just happens in January definitely a wasted period Let's hope we can reload going forward
I hope that is the case Frank.it would be the perfect window to lay the wreaths....
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:09 pm

The only reason for any potential snow on Monday or Tuesday is because the GFS closes off 500mb and digs the energy furthest south.  Without energy digging south of us and 500 closing off this event is likely a no go.  This is an entirely N stream event and currently the GFS is the only model showing this soln at 500mb.  All the other models show this N energy nothing more than a progressive, positively tilted trough that whisks the associated vorticity quickly through the region.    Again 500 closing off and passing SOUTH of the region(GFS FV3 closes off but passes north of the area) is key to cfreating enough instability in the atmosphere to matter.  Ill get excited if other models jump on this idea. As of the 12z runs CMC, Euro and Ukie arent on board

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_24
December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:51 pm

Can you say flooding

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_ap10
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Post by frank 638 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:07 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can you say flooding

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_ap10
wow i wish this was a snow map.i am sick and tired of these rain storms

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:37 pm

Monday is looking more and more interesting for possible snow

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Post by algae888 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Monday is looking more and more interesting for possible snow
How about tomorrow looks like a couple of inches north and west of the city
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:00 pm

What's this about snow tomorrow morning? My coworker said she saw snow for yonkers white plains on nws?
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:03 pm

3km nam shows 1 to 3 for area al! Bit more in nj across river. I'd love a delay tomorrow.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:33 pm

Just a cheap thrill, will change to rain around lunchtime.... I think only NW NJ and Hudson Valley will see more than an inch

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:34 pm

Top 2 inches at most
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:03 pm

CTZ005>007-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-
140130-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
826 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A quick moving low pressure system poses a moderate to high
potential for a light accumulating snowfall across interior portions
of northeastern New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and Southwestern
Connecticut Thursday morning into afternoon. 1 to 2 inches of
snowfall is likely in this area. There is a low potential for
locally 2 to 4 inches of snow. Hazardous travel conditions are likely
Thursday morning into afternoon in this area.

Along the coast, including the NYC/NJ metro, light snow Thursday
morning will transition to rain from southeast to northwest later
Thursday morning into early afternoon, with a low to moderate
potential for a light snow accumulation before changeover to rain. A
dusting to around an inch of snow is likely before a changeover to
rain for the NYC/NJ metro and northwestern Long Island. Hazardous
travel conditions are possible in this area, particularly away from
the south coasts. Meanwhile, eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut may see little to no snow accumulation.

Timing and location of heaviest precip, timing of onset of snowfall,
and timing of changeover from snow to rain are still a bit uncertain.
This makes for an overall low to moderate confidence snowfall
forecast at this time. Increasing clarity will likely not be until
early Thursday morning as precipitation begins to develop into the
region.
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:14 am

algae888 wrote:Yes it was very cold the last few mornings this 10-day stretch will be the coldest 10-day stretch in December since 2010 hper Blue Wave on the other forum very unusual to have this type of cold and dry in December usually just happens in January definitely a wasted period Let's hope we can reload going forward

It was a wasted period, all that cold air for nothing.At least I have the possibility of 1 to 2 inches today.That would be a little compensation for this cold, dry period.Radar showing small area of snow moving east.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:51 am

Batch snow very light if at all is much further north models had it extending down to NYC with rain. It doesn't go past south of 287.
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Post by frank 638 on Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:51 am

The city is not taking a chance they are putting tons salt on the road

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Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:29 am

Snowing lightly in Mount Vernon 29 degrees dew point 20 radar is blossoming as I speak
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Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:29 am

Rgem looks to be the most accurate with the timing as most of the models had this starting at 10 a.m.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:35 am

Some snow showers working through places well N&W of NYC. I don't think it will amount to much. NYC and most of NJ may see a coating before it changes to rain this afternoon.


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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:37 am

It's looking likely someone - especially CNJ on south - will see 2 or more inches of rain between Saturday and Sunday. Lots of rain this weekend. Flooding will be a concern. The ground is practically frozen.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Namconus_apcpn_neus_28

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Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:37 am

Nice easterly fetch in the low and mid levels with warm air advection over top I think some places are going to be surprised today wouldn't be surprised to see three or four inches some areas north and west of the city
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:41 am

Regarding Monday:

The 500mb energy associated with this weekend's rain storm (located SE of New England) and the energy across the Great Lakes trended in the wrong direction last night. There is no phasing, nor partial phasing, to allow snow to develop over the area. We need these two entities much closer together to have a chance of some snow Monday.

December 2018 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Gfs_z500_vort_us_17

Granted I'm only looking at the GFS. I'm not sure what the EURO is thinking.

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