Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

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Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:40 am

Mother Nature plans to ring in the New Year in a big way.

The winter outlooks over the fall suggested our winter will be colder and snowier than normal for a variety of reasons - modoki El Nino being one of the leading factors. While much of the region saw plenty of cold temps from Thanksgiving to this point in December, we have not seen much in the way of snowfall. Of course that is going to rattle the cages of die-hard winter enthusiasts who were promised by many forecasters a snowy season. But 1 full month of Meteorological winter is almost through and the prospects of significant snowfall before the New Year looks pretty low for the coast. There are reasons for that - a +EPO/-PNA induced from an unfavorable MJO - but let's look at the new instead of concentrating on the old.

As mentioned in the long range thread the Stratosphere is undergoing significant warming. When this layer experiences significant and rapid warmth, especially at the middle and upper levels, it has severe consequences on our weather pattern here in the Troposphere.

Let's take a look at what the EURO shows - which is historically a bit more accurate than the GFS.



Holy! The EURO shows anomalous warming at 10hPa (the middle Stratosphere). The warmth stems from a single ridge on the Pacific side. This means it is a WAVE 1 warming event which pushes the Stratospheric PV from the Arctic Circle into Europe. But, is this a temporary push / weakening of the Stratosphere or a permanent one? To know that, we need to look at the winds in the Stratosphere.



Once again we want to look at 10 hPa (middle Stratosphere) but this time also compare the winds at 60N (the mid to upper latitudes of the Stratosphere). The blue colors represent easterly winds (winds flowing from east to west) and the red colors represent westerly winds (winds flowing from west to east). When mean zonal winds reach 0, or go negative, it means the winds have successfully shifted from easterly to westerly and a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event is/has taken place. On this image, the EURO at 240 hours, shortly after Christmas, shows the winds reversing from easterly to westerly (look at 10 hPa and 60N and you will see RED shading).



This is also nicely depicted on this image. Check out the second tier on this image where you see mean zonal winds from the EURO at 10hPa and 30hPa. Both are forecasted to get down to 0 after Christmas.

The GFS takes it a step further.



The GFS not only gets mean zonal winds down to 0 but WELL into the negatives. This to mean signals the GFS is trying to not just weaken the Strat PV but DESTROY it completely via a WAVE 2 warming event. A WAVE 2 warming event means there are 2 ridges instead of 1 squeezing the Strat PV and trying to SPLIT it in half, or destroy it.



And yes, that is exactly what the 06z GFS did this morning valid January 2nd. Every single GEFS member takes mean zonal winds well under ZERO.

The point I am making is changes are happening but the models WILL struggle with it. I would not expect the models to catch onto these changes until this weekend or early next week. They should begin showing a much colder and stormier pattern developing toward the New Years Eve into 2019. This all being said, we will have to see exactly what 'other' drivers critical to our weather pattern will be on our side. We should see the pattern get out of this La Nina-like state and get to El Nino. We should see the +PDO take over giving us a -EPO which would place a mean trough over the eastern U.S.

My hope is this Stratospheric warming event enables these changes to occur. We shall see. Sit tight for now! December 27th through January 20th should be very interesting.

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:48 pm

Ok boss. We wait! Good to know you’re enthused though
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:11 pm

This is an excellent report and cause for much hope going into the New year!
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by billg315 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:33 pm

Giggity!
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:04 pm

Thank you Frank for a great write up!!

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:54 pm

I tell ya, when certain people get jacked up, it’s just contagious. I’d love to keep tracking the SSW on this thread if anyone is able to post updates.

Might as well track something this week...

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:52 pm

Tom (isotherm) made a post on another board a couple of days ago that everything is still on track for this upcoming pattern change. With Frank today agreeing with Tom's thoughts should help to further calm fears here. That's a good thing cause some people were starting to get testy.
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:24 pm

There are some who want to compare this to 2014-15, which was a modoki El Nino.  

That had the cold November, warm December, and bitterly cold January to March.

Some issues to note though:

The ESRL shows that while the EPO goes from strongly positive to slightly positive in about 10 days, it goes back to strongly positive by New Year's:



Also, take a look at the MJO projections, The ECMWF shows it going from Phase 5 to 6/neutral (still warm phase) and the GEFS keeps it in Phase 5 through New Year's.





Also, here are the current SST anomalies.  Notice the warmest anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are in the 1.2 region (which makes it east-based at the moment)



One of the best recaps of the 2014-15 winter IMO is Frank's recap of it that he posted on YouTube in 2015.

Here are the key features shown which enabled the cold three month stretch following New Year's:

1) EPO went negative by New Year's (shown at 1:26 in the video)

2) The warm waters in the Pacific in the current stretch were over the Gulf of Alaska, the west coast, the Baja, and near the International Date line (and NOT of the coast of South America) (shown at 1:33 in the video)

3) The MJO went into the favorable phases making an already cold pattern even colder (3:26 in the video)

Of course, the SSW map at 3:19 in the video is somewhat similar to the one Frank posted today, but the other components arent cooperating at the moment.

If they don't get their act together in the next few weeks, winter is in big trouble.

Here is the vid btw:


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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by HectorO on Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:38 pm

Math23x7 wrote:There are some who want to compare this to 2014-15, which was a modoki El Nino.  

That had the cold November, warm December, and bitterly cold January to March.

Some issues to note though:

The ESRL shows that while the EPO goes from strongly positive to slightly positive in about 10 days, it goes back to strongly positive by New Year's:



Also, take a look at the MJO projections, The ECMWF shows it going from Phase 5 to 6/neutral (still warm phase) and the GEFS keeps it in Phase 5 through New Year's.





Also, here are the current SST anomalies.  Notice the warmest anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are in the 1.2 region (which makes it east-based at the moment)



One of the best recaps of the 2014-15 winter IMO is Frank's recap of it that he posted on YouTube in 2015.

Here are the key features shown which enabled the cold three month stretch following New Year's:

1) EPO went negative by New Year's (shown at 1:26 in the video)

2) The warm waters in the Pacific in the current stretch were over the Gulf of Alaska, the west coast, the Baja, and near the International Date line (and NOT of the coast of South America) (shown at 1:33 in the video)

3) The MJO went into the favorable phases making an already cold pattern even colder (3:26 in the video)

Of course, the SSW map at 3:19 in the video is somewhat similar to the one Frank posted today, but the other components arent cooperating at the moment.

If they don't get their act together in the next few weeks, winter is in big trouble.

Here is the vid btw:


Gee, thanks for that burst of positivity after a good post Laughing
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Wheezer on Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:37 pm

Nothing wrong with pointing out the negatives if valid, and yes they are valid. The MJO possibly pitching a tent in phase 5 is concerning and could legitimately delay the pattern shift.

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:15 pm

I love your excitement Frank but I can't really get excited, this has already been said about pattern changes a few times only to let us down, so although I am not being a debbie downer and saying nothing is going to go right (this very well could bode well) I am not going to nor am I excited....YET.
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:17 pm

HectorO wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:There are some who want to compare this to 2014-15, which was a modoki El Nino.  

That had the cold November, warm December, and bitterly cold January to March.

Some issues to note though:

The ESRL shows that while the EPO goes from strongly positive to slightly positive in about 10 days, it goes back to strongly positive by New Year's:



Also, take a look at the MJO projections, The ECMWF shows it going from Phase 5 to 6/neutral (still warm phase) and the GEFS keeps it in Phase 5 through New Year's.





Also, here are the current SST anomalies.  Notice the warmest anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are in the 1.2 region (which makes it east-based at the moment)



One of the best recaps of the 2014-15 winter IMO is Frank's recap of it that he posted on YouTube in 2015.

Here are the key features shown which enabled the cold three month stretch following New Year's:

1) EPO went negative by New Year's (shown at 1:26 in the video)

2) The warm waters in the Pacific in the current stretch were over the Gulf of Alaska, the west coast, the Baja, and near the International Date line (and NOT of the coast of South America) (shown at 1:33 in the video)

3) The MJO went into the favorable phases making an already cold pattern even colder (3:26 in the video)

Of course, the SSW map at 3:19 in the video is somewhat similar to the one Frank posted today, but the other components arent cooperating at the moment.

If they don't get their act together in the next few weeks, winter is in big trouble.

Here is the vid btw:


Gee, thanks for that burst of positivity after a good post Laughing

You know math is now or warmist and mr negativity (whether correct or not) LOL, just jabbing ya Mike as you always seem to come with the bad news, though you def have the stuff to back it up, hence why I stated what I did.
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:03 pm

@Mike -

The MJO wave that is causing it to be in phases 4 and 5 is forecasted to die by the end of this month, evident on this image. Notice the deep shades of blue and purple that is currently over Indonesia is no longer there by the end of the 3rd week of December.



Westerly wind bursts were evident at 60E (MJO phase 1-2-3) then this same wave gradually moved into phases 4-5. While obviously some waves last longer than others, like this one, its not possible for them to live forever. Luckily for us there is models showing the wave dying off. Even the EURO which you posted shows the MJO in very low amplitudes of phase 5 then in the COD (which has no impact on our pattern. The EURO shows what I've just outlined


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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:30 pm

Mike,
I vehemently disagree with your statement. One the best weather minds are all aginst this, Isotherm and Frank to name two. The AAM doesn't support your call of big trouble winter. This isn't a godzilla based nino,
 those days are over, Here is your Nino
Section 4


Your call for the east based Nino it isn't but more basin wide as per the charts by Trop Tidbits.

Low solar will also come into play as I have explained and discussed ad naseum here. We have an EAMT at play the will allow the PAC jet to retract , also a Russian HP that will retrograde and a Scan Block that will cause an even more attack on the PV besides retrograde West into Iceland then Greenland by latest LR prognostication.

MJO waves back in late Nov showed the wave dying in phase three but then we had a burst of convection in the IO that thwarted this and allowed the wave to continue into phase 5 and then dye out.

If we split that PV into three as some guidance is suggesting that would be incredible. I rather an elonation for us here on the EC.

Watch the models come around to Isotherm call and Franks call. Isotherm said tranisition to happen around 22/23 of Dec. 
Also, Canada is BN still with AN snowpack which is great and not to mention Greenland. Our prospets as move deeper into winter will benefit from this.

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:39 pm

GFS shows a pool of VERY cold air diving into the Plains/Midwest around Dec. 31/Jan. 1, moderating a bit as it heads east (but bringing freezing temps to Florida), but then reinforced by another shot of arctic air diving south around Jan. 3-4. Could be the first signs/hints of the pattern change starting to show up on the modeling.
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:56 pm

billg315 wrote:GFS shows a pool of VERY cold air diving into the Plains/Midwest around Dec. 31/Jan. 1, moderating a bit as it heads east (but bringing freezing temps to Florida), but then reinforced by another shot of arctic air diving south around Jan. 3-4.  Could be the first signs/hints of the pattern change starting to show up on the modeling.

I think their showing before that now the euro hinting at white xmas
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:58 pm

Refuse to comment any further on negative comments. All I will say is the following: Next week, starting from just prior to Christmas through New Year’s, we have THREE opportunities at wintry precip for at least portions of our area. That’s one hell of a way to run a “torched, throw away, kick the can down the road for another two or three weeks” pattern. Combine that with the wintry weather we saw with our last event that was supposed to be 60° and rain, and I’d say we have had a pretty damn good start to winter so far. Had we not had suppression issues with that big storm that the southern Midid-Atlantic, EVERYBODY would have had nothing but positive things to say about this last month. I’m sorry, but I am just sick of hearing all this negative talk about how “this month has been terrible” and “where’s all the cold and snow we were promised?” Look at your temperature departures to date: significantly below average. Look at your snowfall to date: Significantly above average, even WITHOUT that big storm. Out of the last ten December’s, I guarantee you that less than three would have the same kinds of stats with temperature and snowfall departures to date. We are doing VERY WELL to date, and we are about to cash in, likely LARGELY, during the climatological PEAK of our Winter Season. You want to mope, go to banter. I’m done defending against these baseless claims. Ill talk to you while some of us are probably watching flakes fly multiple times next week.

This is the EXACT same thing that happened last February, and what happened in March and April? I rest my case.


Last edited by rb924119 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:01 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:00 pm

P.S. Great discussion, Frank!!!

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Snow88 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:04 pm

Models are starting to show a possible white Christmas for the area. Remember how the models showed warmth for next week?

Yes the cutter is still on the models post christmas but it's starting to get shredded by the upcoming east based -NAO.
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:26 pm

Snow88 wrote:Models are starting to show a possible white Christmas for the area. Remember how the models showed warmth for next week?

Yes the cutter is still on the models post christmas but it's starting to get shredded by the upcoming east based -NAO.

Yes snow I know I posted in other thread that models are hinting at a white Xmas to no avail lol
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:35 pm

A set of VP200 charts, maps that show great news, the wave in 4he IO dies off and the lower pressures build across the dateline for convection.this means great things to come for the late Dec and early Jan period time frame
From Tams on another board maps.


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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:36 pm

rb the fact that December was colder than average and we got 0 snow is exactly why people are frustrated. We’re frustrated with December. Our snow was in November. Huge bonus. But December SUCKED BALLS. You can’t be excited because 6 sleet pellets fell all month with the 5” of rain we will end up with.
Lets bring on JFM
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:09 am

amugs wrote:A set of VP200 charts, maps that show great news, the wave in 4he IO dies off and the lower pressures build across the dateline for convection.this means great things to come for the late Dec and early Jan period time frame
From Tams on another board maps.


Good post.

The EURO shows the MJO slowly dying off in Phase 5


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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:39 am

Quick update on the Strat from John Homenuck(earthlight)

Wanted to provide some brief discussion here to touch base on my initial thoughts from a few weeks ago. Since that time, we have seen a few key things occur:

1) The MJO amplitude continues to adjust and most reliable ensemble guidance is struggling (this includes the ECMWF)

2) There have been a few more "head-fakes" in regards to a snowy/cold pattern in the Eastern US in very late December and very early January

3) The SSW has begun and will continue over the next several days, leading to a major change in the stratosphere

All of these things fall in line with initial discussion from a few weeks ago. The gradual process that was discussed is underway, and the seeds are in place for the development of a colder/snowier pattern in the Eastern United States by the middle part of January. In the next 72 hours a large Siberian high will descend southward and the development of a deep Aleutian low will develop as an EAMT event gets underway. This is the first warning shot of the changing pattern, especially in the Northern Pacific Ocean.

Most guidance is in good agreement that by the New Year (time frame beginning 1/1), an elongated ridge will be in place across the Western United States and into parts of British Columbia. This will be the first "attempt" at a more favorable pattern while most hemispheric forcing is still on the periphery of favorable stages. There is the potential for a transient system impacting the Eastern US with wintry weather during this time frame. The overall progression of the waveguide here is still in the developmental stages. Note: There may very well be a period of moderation near 1/5 across the Central (perhaps Eastern?) USA as the entire pattern "snaps" back to support the development of an even more noteworthy WNHEM ridge. Do not panic.

The more notable developments come during the time frame after 1/7, as the MJO/AAM (among many other things) begin having a major impact and the pattern can really start to dig its heels in. It is not a coincidence that guidance is suggesting the poleward propagation of a large ridge into British Columbia during this time frame. The potential for colder than normal air and stormy conditions should really begin to crescendo once we approach 1/15 as the subtropical jet begins to extend once again.

All of this will be somewhat modulated by the Atlantic side of things, which looks increasingly likely to feature a UK ridge that builds gradually westward toward the NAO regions as wave breaking events continue. It remains to be seen exactly how well these two features (the poleward Pac ridge and tropospheric blocking in the Atlantic) are able to harmonize, but they eventually will. The window for that begins from 1/15 and continues to the end of the month in my opinion.

The stratospheric "happenings" will likely only serve to exacerbate the potential for blocking and cold, but it remains to be seen exactly how effectively the downwelling process occurs. There is increasing confidence in a major SSW and the downwelling effects should at least begin by 1/7 with some increased support for a secondary W2 event. This lends credence to the idea that high latitude blocking in the Atlantic could begin to crescendo by late January, with ridging making further inroads toward Greenland and the Davis Strait with the development of a -NAM state.

To wrap it up...my thoughts remain unchanged overall. The seeds are in place for the development of a colder and snowier pattern in the Eastern US, with the crescendo toward this pattern really building toward 1/15 and the threats continuing thereafter. We are really just beginning to watch the most important parts of the evolution toward a more favorable pattern.

The harmony of poleward Pacific ridging and Atlantic blocking may reach a peak in the third week of January, which is when I suspect we may begin to start talking about a very significant winter storm.

Anyway....Merry Christmas Smile


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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:45 am

MJO has really done some wonky things. If you read two posts up from Frank back on Dec20th he notes the euro was showing the MJO die off in phase 5. Well here are the latest Euro and GEFs MJO forecast and observed MJO plots. So much for dying off in phase 5. BTW this is not a knock on Frank in anyway shape or form. This is to show how the long range MJO forecasts this season has been anything but a lock. We cont to be at the mercy of the MJO since it has been propagating with such amplitude. The good news is the strat warming is officially underway, in large part due to the MJO, and the MJO conts to propagate towards the more favorable phases. Continued patience will be a virtue. I know I know delayed but hopefully not denied. Im frustrated too.



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 3.00" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3"
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sroc4
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

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