Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Radz on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:16 am

sroc4 wrote:MJO has really done some wonky things.  If you read two posts up from Frank back on Dec20th he notes the euro was showing the MJO die off in phase 5.  Well here are the latest Euro and GEFs MJO forecast and observed MJO plots. So much for dying off in phase 5.  BTW this is not a knock on Frank in anyway shape or form.  This is to show how the long range MJO forecasts this season has been anything but a lock.  We cont to be at the mercy of the MJO since it has been propagating with such amplitude.  The good news is the strat warming is officially underway, in large part due to the MJO, and the MJO conts to propagate towards the more favorable phases.  Continued patience will be a virtue.  I know I know delayed but hopefully not denied.  Im frustrated too.  


I've got to admit, the delay is a hard pill to swallow. Here's to hoping that in another 4 days the MJO starts to cooperate and the forecast becomes much more optimistic as far timing and longevity of the pattern change. But honestly, Jan 15th-all of Feb would go a long way in erasing the disappointment of a snowless Dec and the delay! Thanks for the update!
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by dkodgis on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:34 am

Weather is controlled but not by us. If we controlled it, we'd have snow in July, and beach weather in Jan. Or we'd fight about it and we would not have consensus. It is out of our hands. I guess it is the most difficult thing to predict or explain on earth.
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:47 am

You people are MUCH more positive and diplomatic than I am. I read this mornings update as “what we have expected to happen so far kind of is but not really so we will push the timeframe back AGAIN by another 10 days. It should get colder and snowier but we can’t be sure”

Next think you know February will be ending and we will have had a couple of snow events and bn temperature periods (like we always do) and people will say YOU SEE. COLDER AND SNOW. IT HAPPENED.

Not what I wanted to wake up to this morning. Not at all
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by HectorO on Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:40 am

syosnow94 wrote:You people are MUCH more positive and diplomatic than I am. I read this mornings update as “what we have expected to happen so far kind of is but not really so we will push the timeframe back AGAIN by another 10 days. It should get colder and snowier but we can’t be sure”

Next think you know February will be ending and we will have had a couple of snow events and bn temperature periods (like we always do) and people will say YOU SEE. COLDER AND  SNOW. IT HAPPENED.  

Not what I wanted to wake up to this morning. Not at all


Pretty much what I said in the banter thread like 2 weeks ago or more. We've seen this scenario many winters before. Every week the "pattern change" gets pushed back further and further until the days are longer and sun angle is less favorable. We'll just have to sit back and wait.
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:00 pm

In my eyes not a whole lot has changed. Yes, the MJO forecasts have been a bust, but the changes happening in the Stratosphere are real. Check out the 500mb pattern beginning after New Years.



This shows a +PNA, -AO, and -NAO.

Fast forward to January 7th:



The signals remain the same but the +PNA is more anomalous that it also brings the EPO negative.

Now here is January 11th



The story remains the same from January 2nd to 11th - a trough and colder than normal weather over the eastern U.S.

I think John (earthlight) is a fantastic Met but he is speaking in a more "pessimistic" tone because he wants his forecast to verify. He was never enthused with a pattern change until mid to late January, but in the maps I posted above this is a CLEAR pattern change from what we saw in December.

Here is the one thing I remain uncertain about:

Will snowstorms come with the cold air? That will not happen until the MJO is out of phase 5. We need the STJ (sub-tropical jet stream) to get active. This is what El Nino is all about. Once the MJO is out of phase 5, I am hoping by January 2nd +/- 2 days, we should not only have the cold but also the snow.

And do not let up on New Years Eve yet...could be some snow around the city and N&W.



Point is: the pattern change will happen after New Years and there are storm opportunities, but the MJO is killing us and it is a little un-predictable right now.

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:49 pm

The EURO shows a snowstorm around January 3rd-4th.

Looks like 6 inch type of event verbatim.

-NAO is very impressive.

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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

Post by syosnow94 on Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:08 pm

After New Years this year?
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Re: Winter to Ferociously Arrive in the New Year

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