A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:51 pm

Mood flakes look more and more likely for much of the region for early Monday morning.  Looking at 500 there is still room, and it wouldnt take much AT ALL, to enhance this some.  All models show at least flakes flying. Again a coating to an inch seems likely with potential for a little more, esp N&W.  

Here is the euro 500mb.  Notice the trough, although not overly amplified, tilting pos and slight neg. as it approaches the coast.  This config is supported on the GFS, CMC and NAM.  

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Euro_h10
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Euro_h11
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Ecmwf_41

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6287
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by sroc4 on Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:54 pm

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Gfs_z500_vort_eus_11
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Gem_z500_vort_eus_11
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Namconus_z500_vort_eus_46
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Nam3km_z500_vort_eus_61

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6287
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by docstox12 on Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:08 am

Doc, you are on to something here! NWS has a 40% of snow Sunday night and 20% before noon on Christmas Eve for me.It may not fulfill CP and Jimmy's criteria for a White Christmas of 2.5 inches on the lawns, but seeing even a solid coating with flakes coming down will certainly be a big lift for the Christmas spirit after these rains of Biblical proportion this month,LOL.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6703
Reputation : 172
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 68
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by sroc4 on Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:01 am

Upton starting to recognize....mood flakes

Another shortwave will be approaching as one wave moves through
the northern flow and a souther stream shortwave moves into the
base of the long wave developing trough late Sunday into Sunday
night. At the surface a weak clipper type frontal system will
quickly pass north or through the region Sunday night into
Monday, while the southern stream low passes off the DELMARVA
late Sunday night into Monday. The thermal profiles will be
cold enough across most of the region for light snow to occur.
Across the south profiles will initially be warm enough Sunday
evening for light rain along the coast, and then transition to
light snow as temperatures drop.....


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6287
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by hyde345 on Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:18 pm

Not going to be a big deal but I guess that inch I may get will be more than I've gotten all month.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 694
Reputation : 30
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by Guest on Sat Dec 22, 2018 4:20 pm

Rain snow mix forecast. Up to 50-60% chance. Hopefully temps adjust down a few degrees

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:36 pm

Forecast now for 1-3 inches tomorrow night (per WC) and a 70% chance here. NWS at one inch and 60% chance.

If this was any other time other than Christmas Eve I wouldn't even be paying attention.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6193
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by Guest on Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:40 pm

MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:24 am

syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15934
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by Guest on Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:34 am

Latest update from NWS even worse A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 996bad10

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:57 am

jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6287
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by Guest on Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:09 am

Scott Funny. Also true. But how should we feel. Never mind nomsnow but now rain?

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by docstox12 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:29 am

syosnow94 wrote:Scott Funny.  Also true. But how should we feel. Never mind nomsnow but now rain?

The Grinch who stole mood flakes.If we get rain instead of snow up here, the Grinch goes into the warmacist category,LOL.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6703
Reputation : 172
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 68
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:36 am

In all honesty Jim I think you have a good chance for snow to fall. The problem we have at the coast is the boundary layer. 925mb an 850mb look to remain below freezing while precip is falling on pretty much all the modeling.

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_25

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6287
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:12 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200
yep its true and I don't care lol good one though. I just want a Godzilla even a small storm won't satisfy me sorry.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15934
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:17 am

sroc4 wrote:In all honesty Jim I think you have a good chance for snow to fall.  The problem we have at the coast is the boundary layer.  925mb an 850mb look to remain below freezing while precip is falling on pretty much all the modeling.  

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_25
Scott that looks like I would be all snow but syo and you look like rain. Or is that snow in Westchester false due to lower level thermal profiles? Any chance coastal ct sees a better chance? That's where ill b driving tomorrow morning. No not worried bout driving though it would be first snow for my new Camry se
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15934
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:20 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

ha ha that is cute..we are in the dry slot looks like nothing going to happen..I will have to put on Hallmark..there is always mood flakes flowing on each of the shows... Very Happy
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2449
Reputation : 59
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by mikeypizano on Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:03 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

If it doesn't snow soon, I am starting a donation fund... Mad
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 940
Reputation : 57
Join date : 2017-01-05
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:30 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:MIRACULOUS ALRIGHT. IF YOURE A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 5e61bf10
THE EFFIN SCROOGE!!
Winter has barely begun and I am already nearly done with it, its driving me nuts too!!

Both you you

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 200

If it doesn't snow soon, I am starting a donation fund... Mad
go fund me is the only way you can rob people legally, just make up a cause and people give money. My friend even did one so he could have a nice birthday and was honest about it and he got like $100 lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15934
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by Guest on Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:08 pm

Congratulations Doc CP and A few others.
A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? 1a5b6610

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:11 pm

Upton:
Surface temperatures stay above freezing and are mostly in the mid 30s across much of the coast making for little to no snow accumulation. Some places along the north shore of Long Island and in the Pine Barrens will be slightly colder in the lower 30s with forecast snow of a coating. Interior has lows near 30 with snow accumulations closer to 1 inch.

&&
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3752
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:33 pm

RAP/HRRR/NAM have all come in slightly colder for the overnight,
indicating a higher potential for snow at the coast. Profiles
in NYC are marginal for snow so anticipating a very wet snow
which may only end up accumulating on grassy surfaces.
Elsewhere, snow appears to be the primary ptype for much of the
event, however QPF amounts are only on the order of 1/10 inch or
less, except across the Lower Hudson Valley, southwestern CT
and portions of NE NJ where up to .15" of liquid equivalent pcpn
is forecast. Amounts here haven`t changed much from the
previous forecast, however locations closer to the coast could
see up to 1/2" of snow accumulation. Will need to watch upstream
obs closely this eve.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3752
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by Guest on Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:44 pm

37 IMBY. 31 out by you Alex. Good luck. MERRY CHRISTMAS

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:49 pm

35.5 according to my station. Dp 27 so there will be wetbulbing
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3752
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? Empty Re: A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE?

Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:33 pm

Latest hrrr

A CHISTMAS EVE MORNING MIRACLE? B4384310

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6287
Reputation : 249
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum