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The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:05 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Wow, we have members in here willing to throw in the towel on FEBRUARY 1 ?????? Good thing there weren't guys like you in the Continental, Army at Valley Forge, the British would still be running this country.Or the Battling B___ards of Bastogne who would have surrendered when the Germans asked instead of saying "NUTS" to them like General Mac Auliffe did! There is still 2 1/2 months of snow producing time this year.I don't care about long range models, it can still snow as Al has said before.As for me, I'm fighting to the last ditch which is March 15th with nothing in sight but mild conditions with rain.

You know me Doc just venting last night. Sub zero cold and everything snow covered has me back and ready for the next one.

I'll be looking for snow till April 15th that's usually my cutoff, although I still fondly remember the May 9th 1977 storm. I'd like another one of those before I leave this planet.

THERE'S the CP I know! Winter and snow lover to the last flake!

We have it this morning up here CP, single digit cold, windy, trees encased in ice 4 /12 inches of what looks like snow.Just need some flurries on and off to enhance the mood.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:06 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Wow, we have members in here willing to throw in the towel on FEBRUARY 1 ?????? Good thing there weren't guys like you in the Continental, Army at Valley Forge, the British would still be running this country.Or the Battling B___ards of Bastogne who would have surrendered when the Germans asked instead of saying "NUTS" to them like General Mac Auliffe did! There is still 2 1/2 months of snow producing time this year.I don't care about long range models, it can still snow as Al has said before.As for me, I'm fighting to the last ditch which is March 15th with nothing in sight but mild conditions with rain.

not ready to throw in the towel, but just a little discouraged...I remember winters like today..cold but with snow on the ground...I remember being little so I think it was around 69 there was a storm and we were staying at my grandmothers and there were huge piles of snow  when she opened up her front door and oooh the boxing day storm..that was a great winter...for now I just play my projector every night and look at the snow flakes dancing on the ceiling...

Mom, that was probably the February 1969 "Mayor Lindsay" snowstorm that gave us over 20 inches in Fort Lee NJ where I was living at the time.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:08 am

amugs wrote:Mom that is great with the projector and I confess I had a moment last night me self. Now that CP is back on board I shall be joining my mate. Hey where is snowy come to tonk of it? Remember the quartet we formed back in 13-14 or was it 14-15. 
I have to try and find those posts, they need to be archived!!

Mugsy, those are in the OTI thread, the very beginnings of that Island that shined so magnificently once.

LOL, glad Frank pulled you back in.We need your optimism and enthusiasm to get this winter in gear finally.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:28 am

amugs wrote:Mom that is great with the projector and I confess I had a moment last night me self. Now that CP is back on board I shall be joining my mate. Hey where is snowy come to tonk of it? Remember the quartet we formed back in 13-14 or was it 14-15. 
I have to try and find those posts, they need to be archived!!

Mugs, Snowman hasn't logged on for several months, I'm hoping everythings okay. Hopefully he heard the warning sirens before we nuked OTI.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:29 am

For OTI: F

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Post by brownie Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:34 am

docstox12 wrote:We have it this morning up here CP, single digit cold, windy, trees encased in ice 4 /12 inches of what looks like snow.
That sounds beautiful!  

We have what looks like snow on the ground here as well, about an inch.  It’s a pretty winter day.

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Post by HectorO Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:25 am

Another 2 years and I might move to St Petes with my wife. Winter cold is starting to take it's toll on me lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:23 pm

HectorO wrote:Another 2 years and I might move to St Petes with my wife. Winter cold is starting to take it's toll on me lol.
BANNED LOL JK
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:24 pm

brownie wrote:
docstox12 wrote:We have it this morning up here CP, single digit cold, windy, trees encased in ice 4 /12 inches of what looks like snow.
That sounds beautiful!  

We have what looks like snow on the ground here as well, about an inch.  It’s a pretty winter day.
 LOL "what looks like snow" I know we can't remember what it looks like can we.  Me even moreso since I basically havent seen anything since Nov. 15th. God just writing that and seeing todays date makes me ill, LOL that is just not right.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:56 pm

Another big plume volcanic explosion peeps

BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO, RUSSIA ERUPTS TO 10.1 KM (33,000 FT) A.S.L.
JANUARY 21, 2019 CAP ALLON
Strong explosive activity continues today at Bezymianny Volcano — located at the Central Kamchatka Depression, Russia — resulting in KVERT raising the Aviation Colour Code to Red.

The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in Tokyo warned of a volcanic ash plume rising to an estimated 33000 ft (10.1 km), or flight level 330, and moving 35 kts to the NW. Particulates ejected to altitudes above 10km (32,800 feet), and into the stratosphere, have a direct cooling effect on the planet.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:34 pm

The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0 - Page 17 Image10
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Post by HectorO Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:24 pm

Days like today make me think back to the documentaries I've seen on these small villages in Siberia where it's a complete arctic tundra. All they do is literally bring in firewood by the dozen all day long. Those places out in the middle of nowhere, are where it pays to have a really small house. They probably don't even get proper sleep. Someone is always going to get up and throw a few more logs in the stove.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:02 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0 - Page 17 Image10

lol! lol! lol!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 22, 2019 6:19 am

And for those that were screaming last week about how B oston would get buried in last weekends storm, their final snow tally was 1.6 inches bringing their seasonal total now to 1.8 inches.

I rest my case.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 22, 2019 6:28 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And for those that were screaming last week about how B oston would get buried in last weekends storm, their final snow tally was 1.6 inches bringing their seasonal total now to 1.8 inches.

I rest my case.

Wow, that is really low for that area! I think one of the very worst winters we had around these parts was '72-73 or thereabouts with only about 3 inches.It was in the 70's in January that year.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:30 am

Wow it is so quiet on the board..that is very telling Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad

( I guess in stead of tracking I will be cleaning out closets this week... shout )
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:41 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow it is so quiet on the board..that is very telling Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad

( I guess in stead of tracking I will be cleaning out closets this week... shout )

If I hear that Queen song I'll think of you cleaning those closets Mom..."Another One Fights The Dust"!
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Post by Grselig Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:57 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:And for those that were screaming last week about how B oston would get buried in last weekends storm, their final snow tally was 1.6 inches bringing their seasonal total now to 1.8 inches.

I rest my case.

It’s human nature. We need somebody to hate. Like the referees. Like the dude from KC who was offsides. I think many of us have given up. Even if there is a signal, the reaction will be tempered untill it literally snows. The NWS on Friday had a warning with 10 inches. I had to warn my son this could be all rain, and we got an icy half inch.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:13 am

Grselig wrote:
The NWS on Friday had a warning with 10 inches.   I had to warn my son this could be all rain, and we got an icy half inch.  

Seems like lately the short range modeling and forecasts have been struggling as much as the mid and long-range ones.

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Post by Wheezer Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:17 am

Delayed and Denied

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:22 am

Don Corleone believed bad news should be delivered quickly and directly, and I agree so here goes:

"I am concerned we may very well witness one of the worst winters (snowfall wise) of our lifetimes." Frank_Wx Today at 9:52 am



Yep, I'd say that qualifies as bad news. Tough pill to swallow. But the sooner I choke it down, the sooner the healing can begin. Kids are 8, 5 and 3..and there is no snow.

Dr. Docstox, I got two words for next winter: MEAN REVERSION!!!! Very Happy

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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:04 am

I remember the winters of the late 80s early 90s when I lived through a noticeable snow drought. I believe in high school we didn't close for snow once in four years. Maybe a delayed opening here or there. In some of those winters I think we barely got any snow at all. So this all feels very familiar to me. I wondered when we were going to have another winter(s) like that. Last year I thought might be headed that way but after March and April it seemed to recover. This winter definitely has "the look" of one of those winters with the storms constantly cutting to our west.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:24 pm

Models will probably tease us for next week. 12Z CMC shows a 981 mb potent storm on benchmark with negative tilt to it backing up the flow. This would be for next Wednesday 1/30.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:39 pm

One of the pro mets on another board stated that the best 10-14 day period for snow looks to be the second and tied week of Feb now. Before he was stating it was from about 1-20 on. Not his fault or anyone's but all of this hope is diminishung. as we move close to a storm all things go wrong lately. The models.show a retraction in the PAC jet and then the PNA Ridge is to far West or the LP is the GL kicks it our or JMAN makes 100 posts asking about IMBY and Big Momma says that it no snow for you!! Only kidding JMAN. Europe is having a huge winter shades of 11-12 if you recall. The PV is being forecasted in the LR to set up in the NW territories. If this happens Math will.come out and say I told you so and how NOAA''s warm forecast was right for all the wrong reasone so is it right? Not in my book. 
There was so.much promise or this winter up until this point and we'll it has not come to fruition. We have 6 -7 more week left in my book then we fight the sun angle and the SE Ridge wants to flex it's muscle and Mike wants to do his spring clean ups etc.
I do look forward to the reanalysis of this winter when all is said and done to see what we can learn. 
One things is for certain when models show a cutter and rain 7ndays it usually verifies and our best storms pop uo usually within 4-5; days of them happening.
Wout NAO help and a favorable pac set up this winter is a dumpster fire. 
Latest ONI information is showing a basin wide Nino.with 1.2 warmer the 3.4. The PV by itself can stop this in the PAC and the MJO sorry. 
Going to track the storm next week to see if we can get some whit gild but if I read from some of the pros say well we have to have more patiene I.may have to give them some of the patience I have burned upside their heads and tell them to quit the act!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:45 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Models will probably tease us for next week.  12Z CMC shows a 981 mb potent storm on benchmark with negative tilt to it backing up the flow.  This would be for next Wednesday 1/30.

And the theme this winter is it's always, "add 7 days to the current day out looks really good. It won't by next Monday.
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Post by mikeypizano Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:48 pm

The sooner this horrible winter is over the happier I will be. Nothing like spending around 11 hours trying to clean up the sloppy mess we got here... 6 inches of snow, changed to rain, then compacted down to maybe 2.5 inches of slushy slop... another half inch of snow after it changed over... then flash freeze. My snow blower froze up on me, so the chute is completely stuck... My boots were soaked all day, not to mention the rest of me was from spending a few hours in the rain...

BRING ON SPRING!!!
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:57 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Models will probably tease us for next week.  12Z CMC shows a 981 mb potent storm on benchmark with negative tilt to it backing up the flow.  This would be for next Wednesday 1/30.

And the theme this winter is it's always, "add 7 days to the current day out looks really good. It won't by next Monday.

7 Days minimum. The ensembles are usually 10 days out for perfect pattern recognition. -NAO, +PNA -OSI, MJO phase 8 into the COD, etc. etc. LOL

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