The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:03 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Pretty sure there was TWO march mega storms for the LHV last March, Doc. An early one around now that hit the north areas good but was all rain down here. And then right after the 1st day a spring, another one that hit that turned to heavy snow all the way down to the coast.

What a difference a year makes...it looks like the cutters/suppression bit is STILL in full force.

Your'e absolutely right because we had 50 inches in March here in the HV.Statistician CP will chime in SENJ on the issue for sure.Right as well on the pattern.This year everything cut west.NWS calling for 1 -2 inches of slop up here Sat night so I am hoping I hit 40 for the season, below the normal 50 but a lot better than could be expected with the lousy pattern you mention.

You're pretty much on target with all of that Doc. Starting with the 8 inches of snow we had on March 2nd last year (sound familiar it pretty much matched this years March3 storm) but then followed up with the over two feet of snow we experience on March 7 last last year, it was a March and April to remember. We had 50.2 inches of snow from March 2nd forward through April 2nd, and snow cover solid through April 3rd. It doesn't look like we will get anywhere close this year, but the 13.4 inches so far this March may be followed up by 3-4 inches of a front end thump tomorrow night followed by slop. That is the familiar theme of this winter.

With all of that, we are almost at 40 inches for the season and the normal of 50-55 inches in Orange County seems very attainable. Even if it is reached I would not call this a normal winter by any stretch. Getting near normal snowfall doesn't make a normal winter. There are many other factors that determine that and I won't go into all of them again right now.

Last March is on the golden standard of winter months for those in the interior.  I had about 40" and beginning of March blizzard.  You'd probably be hard pressed to find any meteorological winter month to top it.  Probably won't see another March like that in my lifetime unless i move to NNE or Labrador tongue

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:03 am

This winter is an interesting one. We had the early storm, our expectations were set, we were disappointed, we had hellacious winds, a few cold snaps, and piddly snow here and there. By the time we get to mid March, we all think of spring. Will there be one more storm?
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:31 am

PEEPERS ANY DAY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:07 pm

dkodgis wrote:PEEPERS ANY DAY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!

The spring peepers would be the mirror in this scene and CP would be Dracula

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYYTwG0k53k
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:41 pm

Funny!  I think tonight or tomorrow we will hear them. Sun is so strong.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:10 am

Hi all,

I wanted to let you all know Meteorologist Joe Cioffi will be at my library tonight at 7pm. Anyone interested is welcome to come! Joe appears on Fios NJ and I think LI as well as fills in on PIX 11.

Westwood Public Library
49 Park Ave
Westwood, NJ 07675

Should be a good time!

Janet

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:21 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Hi all,

I wanted to let you all know Meteorologist Joe Cioffi will be at my library tonight at 7pm. Anyone interested is welcome to come! Joe appears on Fios NJ and I think LI as well as fills in on PIX 11.

Westwood Public Library
49 Park Ave
Westwood, NJ 07675

Should be a good time!

Janet

that is so exciting..I like him! I wish you were not an hour away...Have a great time...
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Post by mikeypizano on Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:41 pm

Hello mower, I missed you!!!

The PLAY PEN-- Banter Thread 4.0 - Page 36 SvmNZJc
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Post by dkodgis on Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:26 pm

Jeez Louise. What crazy weather in the midwest. 110 mph gusts.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:20 pm

You know its over when theres maybe 1 comment a day. We wont be hearing much until hurricane season, I have not checked to see what predictions are for this year.
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Post by Math23x7 on Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:41 am

jmanley32 wrote:You know its over when theres maybe 1 comment a day.  We wont be hearing much until hurricane season, I have not checked to see what predictions are for this year.

Also, Frank hasn't logged onto this forum in over a week. That's very telling.

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:09 am

Still have some snow on the property in spots and the ground is still rock hard.If I had an organic vegetable garden, there would be no planting on St Patty Day this year.Looks like we are winding down the winter quickly.Cooler next week but no snow at all seen.
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:21 am

Doc, I still have snow cover but I expect a dent if it gets to 62 and it rains. Frozen ground and freezing temps st night. No planting yet. No tee shirts or Banana Republic shorts yet. And now no more Aunt Becky
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Post by Grselig on Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:06 pm

Devastatingly depressing winter. Snow cover 90% gone. And a cyclone bomb hits out west. Should have been us. Maybe the Mets will compete.
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Post by mikeypizano on Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:10 pm

I did a pressure washing job today, 70* and sunny felt great!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:08 pm

One day I'll be able to dedicate time again back into forecasting the weather. Sorry to those who expect more from me, but I'm very proud of the forecasts other members give. Scott being one of several others.

I will say - I've seen some ugly sides of people solely because of the snow-less winter. Its forced me and other staff to ban members we've grown to like. Unfortunately myself or other staff can't moderate full time. If content is posted that does not follow our guidelines, I ask someone to send us an email so we can act on it right away.

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Post by frank 638 on Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:One day I'll be able to dedicate time again back into forecasting the weather. Sorry to those who expect more from me, but I'm very proud of the forecasts other members give. Scott being one of several others.

I will say - I've seen some ugly sides of people solely because of the snow-less winter. Its forced me and other staff to ban members we've grown to like. Unfortunately myself or other staff can't moderate full time. If content is posted that does not follow our guidelines, I ask someone to send us an email so we can act on it right away.
hey frank i hope everything is going well with u and your family .dont worry about it family and work comes first .i just want to say thankyou so much for making this the best number one weather forum .also frank scott ,amugs janet and everyone else thankyou for all your hardwork

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:45 pm

frank 638 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:One day I'll be able to dedicate time again back into forecasting the weather. Sorry to those who expect more from me, but I'm very proud of the forecasts other members give. Scott being one of several others.

I will say - I've seen some ugly sides of people solely because of the snow-less winter. Its forced me and other staff to ban members we've grown to like. Unfortunately myself or other staff can't moderate full time. If content is posted that does not follow our guidelines, I ask someone to send us an email so we can act on it right away.
hey frank i hope everything is going well with u and your family .dont worry about it family and work comes first .i just want to say thankyou so much for making this the best number one weather forum .also frank scott ,amugs janet and everyone else thankyou for all your hardwork

Ditto, I had a feeling some of our members even regulars however am not sure would be banned for comments, I know I myself got testy but never would I lash out at anyone and IMO its silly and trite because we didn't get enough snow, get annoyed by it and complain sure but to bash people, call names etc just isn't right and from what I hear we do not want this to become the old 7 board that Frank broke off from to bring us this gem. Heres to hurricane season! Which I hear will be about normal but honestly same as you frank if you hadnt noticed my posts have slowed though not stopped in due to the large amount of work I have and my family etc. Also I used to put weather before alot of things that are honestly more important. Hope no one jabs me for that LOL, thank you to all.
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Post by amugs on Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:One day I'll be able to dedicate time again back into forecasting the weather. Sorry to those who expect more from me, but I'm very proud of the forecasts other members give. Scott being one of several others.

I will say - I've seen some ugly sides of people solely because of the snow-less winter. Its forced me and other staff to ban members we've grown to like. Unfortunately myself or other staff can't moderate full time. If content is posted that does not follow our guidelines, I ask someone to send us an email so we can act on it right away.
Frank,
We all do our best and moderating a board when a storm is co.ig can be a full time job and people here have to realize these are positions we have been asked to do and do for the passion of the weather and for our family here, we don't get paid unlike other boards. That is not what this is about and we are here to be civil and share information not fake news. Some got really down and dirty at times, the ugly was brought out by the ugly. Heck, we tries our best but monkey wrenches were thrown in at almost every turn that many did not see meterologically speaking. Some said I told you so but had no definitive reasoning other than this winter sucks, sorry that is doesn't not help anyone on this forum.
Let's see what the 3rd of this week brings and I am ready for some tranquil seasonal weather. I love my counterparts at work, when will it be warm and 70, peeps you don't live in that climate or region but they don't want to listen and complain we don't get there till May. I know I shall take a few weeks off and then return sometime later in the spring or early summer as I have a lot to do with work, unless something warrants me to post. Ciao ciao

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Post by dkodgis on Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:14 am

I can only offer that today the snow cover took a beating and is about 70% gone. Maybe in a month, my daughter can play basketball again. The five foot pile that was, is now about a three foot pile by 30 feet. It did not seem that it snowed that much this year but the pile from plowing says otherwise.
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:One day I'll be able to dedicate time again back into forecasting the weather. Sorry to those who expect more from me, but I'm very proud of the forecasts other members give. Scott being one of several others.

I will say - I've seen some ugly sides of people solely because of the snow-less winter. Its forced me and other staff to ban members we've grown to like. Unfortunately myself or other staff can't moderate full time. If content is posted that does not follow our guidelines, I ask someone to send us an email so we can act on it right away.

It was a shame to see Jimmy aka Syos get banned but he went ballistic this winter when the long range forecasts in the Fall for this winter did not pan out.He didn't realize that these models being used have defects in them at this juncture and their reliability is far from perfect.The moderators have to do their job in keeping this site a civil, rational place where ideas can be exchanged in a reasonable manner.Otherwise, we descend into the chaos of the old Channel 7 Board.I would never blame the long range forecasters as I use my own system from nearly 60 years of observation which I have repeated ad nauseum.It's the reversion to the mean.Last year we had over 84 inches of snow in the HV, way above the 50 inches that is normal.This winters 40 inches makes up for that anomaly.That being said, I will say I'm amazed we got 40 inches as the winter had a terrible pattern for major snowstorm development.As we move into spring and summer, this winter will fade into memory and we will start again come October 1st with hints about next winter.Thank you Frank for the time you do spend plus all the others who contribute and spend time doing that and moderating.
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Post by Snowdad on Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:10 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:One day I'll be able to dedicate time again back into forecasting the weather. Sorry to those who expect more from me, but I'm very proud of the forecasts other members give. Scott being one of several others.

I will say - I've seen some ugly sides of people solely because of the snow-less winter. Its forced me and other staff to ban members we've grown to like. Unfortunately myself or other staff can't moderate full time. If content is posted that does not follow our guidelines, I ask someone to send us an email so we can act on it right away.

It was a shame to see Jimmy aka Syos get banned but he went ballistic this winter when the long range forecasts in the Fall for this winter did not pan out.He didn't realize that these models being used have defects in them at this juncture and their reliability is far from perfect.The moderators have to do their job in keeping this site a civil, rational place where ideas can be exchanged in a reasonable manner.Otherwise, we descend into the chaos of the old Channel 7 Board.I would never blame the long range forecasters as I use my own system from nearly 60 years of observation which I have repeated ad nauseum.It's the reversion to the mean.Last year we had over 84 inches of snow in the HV, way above the 50 inches that is normal.This winters 40 inches makes up for that anomaly.That being said, I will say I'm amazed we got 40 inches as the winter had a terrible pattern for major snowstorm development.As we move into spring and summer, this winter will fade into memory and we will start again come October 1st with hints about next winter.Thank you Frank for the time you do spend plus all the others who contribute and spend time doing that and moderating.

Hello all. This is Syosnow under a new account which I will immediately delete later today after this post has hopefully been read by some regulars. If one of you can quote it so it does not get deleted I would appreciate it. I was a member for a long time and feel like I deserve to be heard

I WAS NOT BANNED FROM THE SITE. I CHOSE TO DELETE MY ACCOUNT

My issues were twofold.

First I believe Scott and Frank (who are good guys and I have lots of respect for even though we have our disagreements) were too trigger happy in banning my posts or deleting them and even moving them. It may have been they grew frustrated with me but I think it was an overreaction.

The other issue is simple. ABSOLUTELY i understand LR forecasting is almost impossible. I GET IT. My issue was people making forecasts and then disappearing when they busted. For example guys like rb guaranteeing things would happen then being 180 degrees wrong but offering no explanation. Guys like Amugs CONSTANTLY being over the top optimistic and then when he was wrong which was almost always, not explaining himself. “EXPERTS” like Isotherm guaranteeing pattern changes and constantly saying they were just “delayed” and then not explaining the busted forecast etc etc

If you are going to put yourself out there and be wrong time after time you need to take some heat and be able to deal with the criticism not run and hide.

I always tried to “bitch and moan” in an appropriate manner without getting personal. It is what is.

AGAIN HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE LEFTUP SO ITHERS CAN READ IT


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Post by mikeypizano on Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:24 pm

Snowdad wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:One day I'll be able to dedicate time again back into forecasting the weather. Sorry to those who expect more from me, but I'm very proud of the forecasts other members give. Scott being one of several others.

I will say - I've seen some ugly sides of people solely because of the snow-less winter. Its forced me and other staff to ban members we've grown to like. Unfortunately myself or other staff can't moderate full time. If content is posted that does not follow our guidelines, I ask someone to send us an email so we can act on it right away.

It was a shame to see Jimmy aka Syos get banned but he went ballistic this winter when the long range forecasts in the Fall for this winter did not pan out.He didn't realize that these models being used have defects in them at this juncture and their reliability is far from perfect.The moderators have to do their job in keeping this site a civil, rational place where ideas can be exchanged in a reasonable manner.Otherwise, we descend into the chaos of the old Channel 7 Board.I would never blame the long range forecasters as I use my own system from nearly 60 years of observation which I have repeated ad nauseum.It's the reversion to the mean.Last year we had over 84 inches of snow in the HV, way above the 50 inches that is normal.This winters 40 inches makes up for that anomaly.That being said, I will say I'm amazed we got 40 inches as the winter had a terrible pattern for major snowstorm development.As we move into spring and summer, this winter will fade into memory and we will start again come October 1st with hints about next winter.Thank you Frank for the time you do spend plus all the others who contribute and spend time doing that and moderating.

Hello all. This is Syosnow under a new account which I will immediately delete later today after this post has hopefully been read by some regulars. If one of you can quote it so it does not get deleted I would appreciate it. I was a member for a long time and feel like I deserve to be heard

I WAS NOT BANNED FROM THE SITE. I CHOSE TO DELETE MY ACCOUNT

My issues were twofold.

First I believe Scott and Frank (who are good guys and I have lots of respect for even though we have our disagreements) were too trigger happy in banning my posts or deleting them and even moving them. It may have been they grew frustrated with me but I think it was an overreaction.

The other issue is simple. ABSOLUTELY i understand LR forecasting is almost impossible. I GET IT. My issue was people making forecasts and then disappearing when they busted. For example guys like rb guaranteeing things would happen then being 180 degrees wrong but offering no explanation. Guys like Amugs CONSTANTLY being over the top optimistic and then when he was wrong which was almost always, not explaining himself. “EXPERTS” like Isotherm guaranteeing pattern changes and constantly saying they were just “delayed” and then not explaining the busted forecast etc etc

If you are going to put yourself out there and be wrong time after time you need to take some heat and be able to deal with the criticism not run and hide.

I always tried to “bitch and moan” in an appropriate manner without getting personal. It is what is.

AGAIN HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE LEFTUP SO ITHERS CAN READ IT


I was going to tell you off but why bother. You are going to leave again anyway... Not worth my time...
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:31 pm

My apologies to Jimmy I thought your absence was because you were banned, did not realize you chose to leave.Anyway, best of luck to you and your family and I hope LI gets blasted next winter to make up for this one.
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Post by Snowdad on Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:51 pm

docstox12 wrote:My apologies to Jimmy I thought your absence was because you were banned, did not realize you chose to leave.Anyway, best of luck to you and your family and I hope LI gets blasted next winter to make up for this one.

Same to you Doc. Hope to meet up again soon. I pmd you my number awhile ago

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